Sunday, November 8, 2009, 8:02AM ET - U.S. Markets Closed.
Financials have fallen in their importance in terms of market-cap weighting in the S&P 500. But it's still fair to say: as the financials go, so goes the broader market.
That was the case during the slide from the market's peak in October 2007 and it's the case during this latest rally from the March 2009 lows.
So if financials are the market's bellwethers, what are the bellwethers for the sector itself?
John Roque, technical analyst at Natixis Bleichroeder, is using Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley as "go-to items" for the sector and, by extension, the S&P 500.
Charts for both Goldman and Morgan "are concerning, as they look likely they're being turned away from downward sloping 200-day moving averages," Roque wrote earlier this week. "Selling these stocks here seems like a decent idea...especially if you were good enough to buy them in late 2008 (we were not)."
Coincidentally (or not), both Goldman and Morgan eclipsed their 200-day moving averages ($115.35 and $24.40, respectively) intraday today, but were more recently trading below them.
This is potentially an important sign, says Roque, even as he believes you must give the benefit of the doubt to both the broad rally and the other big bellwether: commodities and related stocks like Freeport McMoran, Mosaic and Monsanto.
Disclosures:
PEOPLE, relax already...TRUST your financial leaders ------- If you have any doubt, please watch the following video ------ http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ETq0DQ1TUlA&feature=PlayList&p=8708ED6748BF39F9&index=0&playnext=1
Goldman, Morgan, Freeport, Mosaic, Monsanto... these companies represent the "middle man" stranglehold Wall Street still has on food, fuel, and credit. They will make some money at first, but will get cut out of the loop as the Wall Street money center shifts to a more efficient Chicago money center, and Chicago is where our President rose to political power.
WAIT TILL 1Q RESULTS HIT THE GAMBLING STADIUM NEXT WEEK!!!!!ROCK AND ROLL BABY!!!!!!5000 HERE WE COME!!!!!
No reason for these stocks to go up.....just like oil....there was no supply problem...their was no demand issue....only greedy speculators and/or shorters. I'll tell you one thing, I don't run back and touch the #%)*! Stove again for a long time.
Riddle: Mr. Technical Analyst says that Financials are going to be poor relative performers for a long time and will continues to slide as a % of the S&P. Mr. Technical Analyst says that HE is Constructive on this rally and the market at this time. Mr. Technical Analyst says that he is looking at the action in the financials as a sign of the health of the market ('shallow pullbacks are another positive for the market') IF the financials are so inconsequential in Mr. Technical Analyst's eyes in that they are going to be weak relative performers, WHY would you use them as an indication of the market's health? IF their market cap as a % of the market is going to decline (as He indicates), the movement in the financials will not be meaningful to the health of the market. This guy is a salesman, not an analyst.
Not the healthy gradual market moves we need.....BOOM ADDICTS IN NEED OF SERIOUS REHAB......
Diane Garnick dissed Henry Blodget on Fox Business suggesting that he is in the same camp of people who think gold will go to $6000 soon. Ouch!
Blodget had to leave early today. He had to check in with his parole officer. He'll be back tomorrow.
Not once have I heard something positive from Tech Ticker if you listened to them you would have missed this 25% rally. All the people on their show are shorts or bears.
Just locked in my profits for this rally....Dive! Dive! Dive! DOWn to 5000 then I will make a Killin'!! Bring on the nasty Q1 reports!
In other news... what the hell is this? :::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: Recently Goldman Sachs has been increasingly involved in both advising and brokering deals to privatize major highways by selling them off to foreign investors. In addition to advising Indiana on the Toll Road deal, Goldman Sachs has worked with Texas governor Rick Perry's administration on privatization projects, and according to John Schmidt, the former adviser to the Chicago mayor's office, it was a Goldman Sachs representative who first pitched the city on the idea of leasing out the Skyway. Goldman Sachs has played a major role in advising states on how to structure privatization deals—even while positioning itself to invest in the toll road market. Conflicts of interest in such transactions are difficult to quantify. :::::::::::::::::: Goldman's is brokering a deal to lease out our interstates to foreign investors? Huh? WTF?
Bla Bla Bla...this is the most boring interview is have seen on Tec. Talk Technical in a market where Technicals don't matter.
Obama is pushing through a massive budget, here comes the inflation. I am investing long term in the hope that we will come to our senses and trash all these anti-freedom socialism ideas in the relative near future.
Here is why the guy is not into the Finacials.... The head of he FHLB walked away a few days ago as he would not sign the Financials. Dont believe me.... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aSWuIRVf5Q9k of course this guy does not know what he is talking about .. he was only Controler General of the United States.. of course according to Wall Street they will say he can not read a balance sheet.... I have to agree only 15 hits on this story.. this guy is boring...
panayiotis a - Thursday April 02, 2009 05:00PM EDT WAIT TILL 1Q RESULTS HIT THE GAMBLING STADIUM NEXT WEEK!!!!!ROCK AND ROLL BABY!!!!!!5000 HERE WE COME!!!!! *** Same thing was said about 4Q last year. After 1Q results are posted, and the market drops for about a week and then comes back up to present level, what will you say then? Oh, I know what you will say. WAIT TILL 2Q RESULTS HIT THE GAMBLING STADIUM!!!!! Get a life. You have no clue as to what is going to happen. ***
you need to get this guy off the air. 1) you can't turn around from being big bear then bull and have any credability 2) everyone know buy low sell high. well we were yesterday at very high resistance levels suggesting we are do for a correction 3)he needs to understand some trading psychology a) a gap down is a buying opportunity b) a gap up is a selling opportunity -there were two big gap down days to buy into. Meaning stocks were cheap compared to a couple of days ago 3) if he does technical analysis he understands the money flow. If all sellers have sold there are only buyers. therefore the market bounces up very rapidly. there have to be enough people in the market for the sellers to drive the market lower - you can see this in the october and november lows, then consolidation and a move lower. 4)historically stocks move up 4 months before the end of a recession. all the current estimates point to contraction this year and flat the next with maybe so growth in 2010. Therefore this may have been the bottom, but to advise a buy here is absolutely wrong. three weeks ago he should have been on saying buy. 5) the market can't move higher without retail buyers joining in, so everytime the pros have already bought they scream that was the bottom. that drives up the price and they sell out from under the retail customer. 6) a technical analyist should have also given the point he feel you should buy in. there were no graphs, etc. 7) this was not the advise of a professional trader or analyist. but of someone advancing his own interests.
Let us not forget Wall Street speculators role in sky high gas prices last year. The rapid rise of the price of oil pushed the car industry, airline industry, and many of the overextended sub-primers off of the cliff. Oil speculation, coupled with all the 'innovative' financial instruments - CDS, CDOs - was the one two punch that triggered the whole financial crisis. Lets face it folks, Wall Street will keep their millions and billions. The rest of us will be left with the bill - cleaning up the mess for generations to come. Like a parasite bonus and compensation is all that matters to folks on Wall Street- not the health of America. We need to get these parasites off of our collective backs. http://money.cnn.com/2008/06/23/news/economy/energy_speculation/index.htm?postversion=2008062317 http://www.engdahl.oilgeopolitics.net/Financial_Tsunami/Oil_Speculation/oil_speculation.HTM
Deutsch Bank... google them. Scary company. They sponsored the Nazis and Gestapo all through WWII. They are the ones who melted down the Jews teeth during the holocaust to get the gold fillings. They lost a lawsuit in 1999 and had to pay reparations. Check out their own twin towers, built in 1984. These are the spookiest people on the planet. And they just got bigger with this current fiasco. I KNOW they are somehow tied into the destruction of the twin towers in NYC. These people are dangerous. DEUTSCH BANK. Listed on the NYSE as a publicly traded company in.........wait for it............ 2001.
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marx - Thursday April 02, 2009 04:53PM EDT
MTL is a great "BRIC" play for Commodities with a p/e of one