Monday, December 28, 2009, 9:01AM ET - U.S. Markets open in 29 mins..
Financials have fallen in their importance in terms of market-cap weighting in the S&P 500. But it's still fair to say: as the financials go, so goes the broader market.
That was the case during the slide from the market's peak in October 2007 and it's the case during this latest rally from the March 2009 lows.
So if financials are the market's bellwethers, what are the bellwethers for the sector itself?
John Roque, technical analyst at Natixis Bleichroeder, is using Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley as "go-to items" for the sector and, by extension, the S&P 500.
Charts for both Goldman and Morgan "are concerning, as they look likely they're being turned away from downward sloping 200-day moving averages," Roque wrote earlier this week. "Selling these stocks here seems like a decent idea...especially if you were good enough to buy them in late 2008 (we were not)."
Coincidentally (or not), both Goldman and Morgan eclipsed their 200-day moving averages ($115.35 and $24.40, respectively) intraday today, but were more recently trading below them.
This is potentially an important sign, says Roque, even as he believes you must give the benefit of the doubt to both the broad rally and the other big bellwether: commodities and related stocks like Freeport McMoran, Mosaic and Monsanto.
Disclosures:
The Wall Street Journal is Predicting .....12.8% Unemployment Rate by the End of Year....And A Tax Liability...Of A "Whooping" $ 163,000.00 DOLLARS ON EVERY SINGLE American Tax-Payer....Due To "NOBAMA'S"...Deficit!!!!! And You All ARE ....Impressed With The Market!!!!! WAKE-UP AMERICA......Bunch Of MORONS!!!!!!!
Today the Media announce that the BANKS want to buy their own TOXIC DEBT... what a joke. How does it help an insolvent bank to buy someone elses TOXIC DEBT so they can get rid of their own. TALK PONZI ... this makes Madoff look like a Choir Boy. The Criminals are still at the helm of the banks....
I can't believe that I am starting to think things are beginning to look up?! I still believe the the 1st quarter results will have some significant disappointments, even with some of it already baked in. I am still going to wait to see if we retest market lows in May-July as a buy in point. If we can get through Oct 2009 without a big drop, then buying the lows through the summer months will prove profitable. At some point short covers will accelerate the move up (next fall?). Just seems like the general American public is starting to come out of their fear shell and coming to grips with there situation now. On a related side note; if you are waiting to purchase any retail items (TVs, furniture, cars etc), again summer looks good, wait too long and inflation will inevitably drive prices up.
Yesterday present a very good day to start shroting. The broad market is currently overbought and S&P and Dow fail to close at the high of the day, technically its pretty bearish!
Banks doubling down on Toxic assets with Taxpayer dollars. Hey that sounds like a real conservative bet.
To all- Plse dun debate anymore guys. The truth is, financials will be worthless, barring further government-propping... Each time any stupid plan comes out, its just DELAYING the inevitable nationalisation. This mkt will tank NATURALLY on no news or bad news, i sincerely doubt the government can prop the mkt 365 days. I also foresee one fine day, all government tricks will be exhausted. That day will mark nationalisation. No more good news in sight, shorts will come back in drove. I still have faith in capital market that mother market will do her job to align valuations to the harsh reality. This mkt can only go only way-SOUTH.
Can you still expect any kind of real recovery, when 20% of the population (boomers) remain on the sidelines out of fear and will probably remain so?
TO: "whalechithunny" [09:51AM EDT] who has done his/her homework on Deutsch Bank ------- Then you'll want to view the following video ------- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ETq0DQ1TUlA&feature=PlayList&p=8708ED6748BF39F9&index=0&playnext=1
People used to buy sell shares based on their EPS and other performance indicators. Now it is no longer so. Trading is becoming a gambling run by high performance trading systems run by corrupt banks and funds
Please have Liz Ann Sommers on more often. She is so hot. I would love her long time.
Things which we don't hope happen more frequently than things which we do hope....
Does anybody really think this guy should be running money?
To be or not to be,this is a question... Friendship is always a responsibility, but not an opportunity...
California has raised its sales tax and other taxes in the midst of this deep recession if not depression. More blood for the loser tax payer. YOU the taxpayer are the loser unless you stop spending.
I changed my mind on Gheithner.....maybe he should be out the door. We cannot keep taking from the people (Paul) to pay peter (The corrupters).
Yes ! And all this talk is stating the obvious,......."Every(stock) Valley can have a Rally"......but the waves are not getting smaller folks !! These Vallyes look like they are getting Bigger and Steeper.....employment is still down,houses sold is still down, benfits down, payrolls down, jobs down,401k down, logging down,....we ain't seem the "bottom of this valley yet"......we have ridden a little wave up, to see, with a view, that the valley's bottom is still deeper, down there...............
THE BEST FORECAST IS RIGHT HERE: http://www.24hgold.com/english/news-gold-silver-there-will-be-hyper-inflation.aspx?contributor=Thorsten%20Polleit&article=1959342264G10020
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Yahoo! Finance User - Friday April 03, 2009 09:59AM EDT
re: davidcdavid64 Nail on the head. This guy is a Salesman. Not an Analyst. He is limited. Flip a coin and you will do as well as listening to this guy. Seriously. No hyperbole.