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Reports of Oil Boom's Death Look Premature

Posted May 30, 2008 12:12pm EDT by Aaron Task in Investing, Commodities

After falling sharply Thursday and slipping below $125 per barrel in London earlier Friday, oil prices were recently rebounding in New York trading.

Still, oil's fall from its recent peak above $135 has revived discussion about whether the "oil bubble" has popped.

While it's undeniable speculation has contributed to oil's rise, it's premature to declare an end to the oil boom -- if only because so many speculators are betting on falling oil prices. Bubbles typically don't peak until all the bears throw in the towel, and we're a long way from that when it comes to crude.

It's also important to note that crude has had 20%-plus corrections in each of the last five years -- short, sharp corrections being classic bull market activity.

Fundamentally speaking, factors such as the weak dollar and rising demand from emerging markets likely have contributed much more than speculation to crude's ascent. Many oil exporters in the Middle East are using more crude as their local economies grow, meaning there is less oil to export, as The Wall Street Journal reports.

Finally, advocates of "peak oil" theory will tell you that oil's rise is almost exclusively about fundamentals.

152 Comments

madmilker57
madmilker57 - Friday May 30, 2008 12:23PM EDT

$146.66 on Labor Day and $150 on 911(Patriot Day).

you
ih8mms_warns - Friday May 30, 2008 12:31PM EDT

Yak Yak Yak goes Hank...Yahoos greatest pumper. If its not 'speculation' then how come the doubters of the spec bubble never mention the fact that speculative positions in oil alone went from $9 billion to $250 billion in the last five years. Coincidently right about the time pensions funds got the green light to 'invest' (ie manipulate) the commodities markets. OR that specs account for the 3 highest 'buyers' of oil right behind the US and China right now....think about that last statement for a second.....that's a lot of cash holding alot of oil that never gets refined, just held onto until the price is high enough. I'm not even a finace guy and I can see that.

you
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday May 30, 2008 12:37PM EDT

Well done guys. Thanks for the link to The Oil Drum, best site on the web...and they're linking to this video right now. Get in touch with them!

zul32
zul32 - Friday May 30, 2008 12:40PM EDT

I heard that on NPR they say "$200 a barrel is coming.". That's outrageous! Lets move to fuel cell cars (powered by water if we could)?

you
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday May 30, 2008 12:41PM EDT

Well done Henry and Aaron. Thanks for the link to The Oil Drum in the piece above, best site on the web...and they're linking to this video right now. Get in touch with them!

Jesse Frentzee M
Jesse Frentzee M - Friday May 30, 2008 12:43PM EDT

Oil is only rising due to speculation, amidst strong supply and weakening demand. BEWARE of the "Great Oil Plunge" Oil will fall to as low as 50 USD/Barrel before the year ends!

you
justlucky - Friday May 30, 2008 12:45PM EDT

Another factor often overlooked is that in times of rampant inflation commodities, including oil, are preferred investments, as their price is expected to keep pace with inflation. This adds to the other factors puting upward pressure on commodity prices. We are unlikely to see much reduction in crude prices until the Fed begins to tighten and the dollar strengthens considerably. Those events will be harbingers of less inflation.

Jesse Frentzee M
Jesse Frentzee M - Friday May 30, 2008 12:48PM EDT

Posted my comment too soon here are the rest: People in the business of price speculation, beware about oil pricess rising to record levels everyday, as this will only boomerang back into the forces who merits its rise. The bottomline would be why would oil prices keep on rising to record levels everyday when there is more than enough supply, and subdued demand due to the projected global slowdown? Price manipulation and speculation is the name of the game, but at some point in time all else will balance out, and a deep fall will equalize the great rise

you
gilan69 - Friday May 30, 2008 12:49PM EDT

What about this man is talking,I founded data about hedge funds industry involment in oil markets in LOndon and New York,IN 2005 they speculators invested about 1.8 trillion dollars,this number jumped to abbout 6-7 trillions now,if this havent amount of money doesnt mean nothing for price,what make it,

you
THOMAS M - Friday May 30, 2008 12:50PM EDT

Is now time to throw the politicians out and start over ! Things have not changed in Washington in over 30 years. When you don't do a good job you lose it, Why do we keep reelecting the same Senators and congressman over and over again !!! They are all CROOKS

you
gilan69 - Friday May 30, 2008 12:50PM EDT

This man is just another liear from financial community of big investment banks and other instytuitions

you
gilan69 - Friday May 30, 2008 12:53PM EDT

Look at eyes of this guys,eyes are always saying truth,is much harder to hide a truth

you
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday May 30, 2008 12:53PM EDT

Nasty correction?? Sorry, but drawing a parallel to the housing market is just plain moronic. You can build houses unto you are blue in the face, but you can only pump so much out of the ground before damaging wells. apples and oranges idiot. bottom line... they can't just turn the spigot anymore.

you
gilan69 - Friday May 30, 2008 01:02PM EDT

Go to the solar companies home pages,or those who make wind turbines,check european car industry,they cars ,gas cars are doing 60-70 mpg,in germany almosrt 20 % of energy needs is coming from wind turbines and solar panels,and is growing rapidly,this is not a matter,the same efficiency of everything is growing rapidly,in 2025 Chines solar panel companies world energy needs will come in more than 50% from renewable sources ,from solar panels supoustu come about 25% this energy,they buiding solar plant in California for 500MW ,this is enough energy for about 250-400 thousan houshoulds,depends from size,who will use this oil,in world is about 700 -800 millions cards,if average use of gas drops 1 gallon year ,this transfers in 56 million cars more,in Europe and USA seems this average is droping more,China most cars aRE NEW,10 years ago they had few cars,

you
pistl - Friday May 30, 2008 01:02PM EDT

Soon the Arabs can stick their oil where the sun don't shine. My friends and I are working on a revolutionary automobile. Our goal is 2011 for the unveiling. We are rather fearful for our own safety but our project will go on. Other ideas and inventions have been squashed in the past but not this time!!!! Get Ready!!!!

you
gilan69 - Friday May 30, 2008 01:10PM EDT

China and India isnt buying more,or alittle,but western Europe and USA is using much less,was big switch last two,three years in cars for more efficient in USA,in europe this is happening for much longer,50% drop in residential construction,do you know how much less energy you need,speculators not suppoustu be involved in commodity markets,money managers suppoustu invest in new technologies and ideas ,and people who aRE MOST efficient in buiosness ,by investing in oil or other commoditeis huge amount of money you stoping everyone from growth,they killing most industries around the world,this the creations like Nasdaq bubble or housing bubble,mechanism its the same,hedge funds suppoustu be banned from commodity markets,this is not place for them,they do not make money for ,they are killing you and you are paying them for this,this is funny isnt

you
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday May 30, 2008 01:15PM EDT

it doesn't matter why oil is rising. speculation, supply vs demand- who cares. the trend is higher, and now that EVERYONE thinks the bubble will burst, you going to see the largest increase on upside. 150 easy, 200 end of year for sure.

you
gilan69 - Friday May 30, 2008 01:15PM EDT

Washighton and oil cartel ,caRTEL of big oil companies kiled GM electric car prototype in late seventies ,created after oil shock,they cant do it now,because Europe and Asia,I came from very fast growing country in Eastern Europe.its like China or India,I talk to my family everyweek,trust me is no way to buy more for this people,many had to switch to public transportation,they had problems to afford it when oil was 100$ a barrel

you
swhilton23 - Friday May 30, 2008 01:17PM EDT

It's ALL a lie! The rich get richer, and the working class all over the world suffer and pay the price! THOMAS M was right. It's time to vote all incumbents out of office, and keep doing it until they start working for the people that elected them!

M M
M M - Friday May 30, 2008 01:22PM EDT

Necessity is the mother of invention. We won't end our dependency on oil until we need to (i.e. we can't afford it any longer.) If prices drop again, we'll only put off the inevitable for a short period ot time.

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