Thursday, January 7, 2010, 6:50PM ET - U.S. Markets Closed.
After falling sharply Thursday and slipping below $125 per barrel in London earlier Friday, oil prices were recently rebounding in New York trading.
Still, oil's fall from its recent peak above $135 has revived discussion about whether the "oil bubble" has popped.
While it's undeniable speculation has contributed to oil's rise, it's premature to declare an end to the oil boom -- if only because so many speculators are betting on falling oil prices. Bubbles typically don't peak until all the bears throw in the towel, and we're a long way from that when it comes to crude.
It's also important to note that crude has had 20%-plus corrections in each of the last five years -- short, sharp corrections being classic bull market activity.
Fundamentally speaking, factors such as the weak dollar and rising demand from emerging markets likely have contributed much more than speculation to crude's ascent. Many oil exporters in the Middle East are using more crude as their local economies grow, meaning there is less oil to export, as The Wall Street Journal reports.
Finally, advocates of "peak oil" theory will tell you that oil's rise is almost exclusively about fundamentals.
Oil 101: X amount of oil in ground (OIG) 150 years ago. Y amount of oil consumed since 1869. X-Y = $4 a gallon gas. Throw in worthless US dollars. Throw in endless war in Middle East Result? $4 gas and $130 oil. You can grow new trees. You cannot grow new oil.
ED: China and India are consuming more oil because their Government "subsidizes" it. Gas is $2.25/gallon in China; about $2 gallon in India.
Oil 101: X amount of oil in ground (OIG) 150 years ago. Y amount of oil consumed since 1869. X-Y = $4 a gallon gas. Throw in worthless US dollars. Throw in endless war in Middle East Result? $4 gas and $130 oil. You can grow new trees. You cannot grow new oil.
To Thomas M. You got part of your statement right. Politicians are part of the problem. The problem is that they shouldn't have anything to do with the conversation of any private sector fluctuation. You can't legislate the laws of the free market and American Politicians should not in any way be involved in asking other countries to increase oil supply when we are sitting stubbornly on plenty of our own. People make a big deal about seperating church and state, how about seperating the state and economics?
ih8mms_warns... Right on! If they proposed that Oil futures contract margins increase to 30% of the position, the prices would fall through the floor. Speculation is DRIVING the market! When you can control a 1000 barrels by putting down 80 barrels for leverage... you're going to get abuse. Time to make them put down 3-500 barrels to play!
"I heard that on NPR they say "$200 a barrel is coming.". That's outrageous! Lets move to fuel cell cars (powered by water if we could)?" Water hell, I wanna piss in the tank
There are Trillions of untapped oil right here in the US. The worlds largest proven oil fields are in the central US. Canada has the second largest oil field in the world. Saudis can pump for
To swhilton23 like Thomas M you are partially correct Yes the poor suffer, but only because Politicians have hijacked the economy of energy in such a way that A.) Demonizes the industry that makes all other industries possible, Energy. B.) Implimants phony and ineffective policy policies (ie. mandatory food product ethanol mass production) that further devistate developing nations by driving up the cost of food. and C.) increases the size of government to an increasingly dangerous level. Read Roy W. Spencer's "Climate Confusion". He makes some good points about how the wealth of successful nations actually helps care for struggling ones. Look at the recent earthquake in China or the Cyclones in Burma and all the outpooring of wealth and aid from RICH nations. Without wealth we would all be in trouble.
i say its high time our government took over the oil industry just like in mexico where gas and diesle are 1/2 of what we pay here.
When it is all said and done,outsde of the greedy speculators helping this along, I would expect in years to come that this was a next stage for oil producers and companies to create a new baseline lke we saw when gas hit $1.00 per gallon, then $2.00 per gallon. My biggest observation is that these enviromentalist extremes (and I am very PRO- ENIRONMENT) are dictacting our lifestyles to push our liberties to the point of a thir world country while countries like China flaunt their new lifestyle and show the world of their newly discovered lifestyles including automobile ownership. Why is so much panic being created by autos when the majority of energy consumption is swallowed by ineffcient factories ans homes that are shodily slapped together and should have passive energy usages. I bet the lobbyists for the enviroment will not give up their limos and SUVs and quit riding airplanes for fear of rding mass transit with the common folk that they are trying to panic us into. 50 years from now, I hope our freedoms are not taken away as we envy countres as China.
i say its high time our government took over the oil industry just like in mexico where gas and diesle are 1/2 of what we pay here.
oops i typed "policy policies" I need an editor
Its TIME we become self sufficient and stop depending on other countries for our energy needs. We need a national policy on renewable energy. Start voteing out the republicans and democrates and vote third party, thats the only way to get WASHINGTON to wake up and to change the country, because the BUMBS cant even work out an immigration policy, WHAT KIND OF FUNCTIONIONG GOVERNMENT IS IT.....
here is a nice tidbit for ya. Countries like Venezula, Brazil, China, and India all subsidize the "gas prices" for their citizens. Venezuala the gas price is around 12 cents a gallon. Leaders in these countries are afraid of riots if they raise prices 10%. Imagine filling up a car and it only costs around $1.50 to do it. Imagine if people in the US rioted or threatened to impeach our leader for the rise in the price of gas. that is why the prices are so high. Now Europe always had high gas prices and they seem to deal with it just fine. Stop making Hummers, Yukons, and other ridiculous size SUV's that guzzle gas. Also Middle America, this one is for you. When u elect a president and Congress who all have stakes in Oil, what do u think is going to happen. Bush is working on his retirement fund with this recent spike
to dewey_shortham_and_howe nationalizing any industry is just the first step in them removing every last liberty you have. Look at Venezuela's Nationalized Oil indistry and get back to me. Also, on the opposite end look at Canada, who produces more oil for North America than anyone and they pay out their ears for it in Taxes. More Government isn't the answer unless you want to pay for it with your freedom or your life savings (which would probably be taxed as well)
The government is to blame for all of the oil problems, look how high oil has gone since Bush has been our fearless leader, not to mention the credit crisis he's put on this country.
I think the whole idea of trading a natural resource that is so essential in our lives, so that Gamblers- cause thats what every stock market of the world is full of- can make money off the masses, is evil. There really is no need for the stock market or commodities trading. Its another way to centralize power and tax the individual that has no clue about monetary policy or that the money is and was created for their benefit, not the other way around, as is the case with the banks in this country and all over the world now.
We've just discovered an American Oil Field bigger than the Dhuban (largest in Saudi Arabia), Oil is nearly infinite, but prices needed to rise in order to make getting Sand Oil, for instance, profitable (costs $30 a barrel to get it, but we have near infinite supplies of it in Canada and Colorado-no need for wars to get it). The near future has us mining Gas Hydrates--infinite supply, all over the world. We had a 200mpg carburetor, but the oil companies bought the patent and shelved it. Nikolai Tesla had free energy machines, but government squashed that too. Note: Ron Paul is still eligible to get elected President this year, no matter what lies mainstream media feeds us. If we got him in we could fix all our messes, so educate yourself about what's really going on b4 u vote, or please just stay home. As for Ethanol, if we re-legalize Cannabis, we'll have endless supplies of fuel, and cheap, not to mention composites that rival steel in strength. Henry Ford was getting us there when the US Gov't shut him down (Had a car made entirely from Hemp, including the fuel). If people don't wake up and elect Ron Paul, look for four more years of agony, no matter who gets elected. Me? I'll be going to Canada, where I can make a good living growing Cannabis for the Government, just as we did in this country until 1937 (then the gov't begged farmers to grow it again in WWII to "Save the War"). I bounced around on this post, but covered only a fraction of the real solutions we have. WAKE UP, AMERICA!
What about the cost/supply of fertilizer ,which is related to OIL ?
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goyman96 - Friday May 30, 2008 01:23PM EDT
Oil 101: X amount of oil in ground (OIG) 150 years ago. Y amount of oil consumed since 1869. X-Y = $4 a gallon gas. Throw in worthless US dollars. Throw in endless war in Middle East Result? $4 gas and $130 oil. You can grow new trees. You cannot grow new oil.