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Richard Russell: Bear Market Will Last Longer, Go Deeper Than People Expect

Posted Apr 08, 2009 07:30am EDT by Aaron Task in Investing, Newsmakers, Recession
Investors and market watchers from all over the world gathered in San Diego last weekend to honor Richard Russell, who has been writing Dow Theory Letters for 50 years.

The evening was filled with warm tidings and cheerful tributes, but not when it came to the market.

As in the accompanying video, Russell pulled no punches when he was (inevitably) asked for his views on the market: "This bear market will be deeper and longer than most people think," said the legendary market watcher. "People got optimistic too quick" about the recent rally, which he says is doomed to fail. "None of the characteristics of a major bottom" are evident, most notably dirt cheap valuations.

Russell's recommendation: "Stay on the sidelines," in cash or gold, the multi-year rally in which won't end until there's a "speculative explosion" in the metal, he says.

Those familiar his work would expect nothing less from Russell.

But the evening was really more about Russell's life, about the people he's inspired - including newsletter writers John Mauldin (the evening's MC), Bill Bonner, Peter Eliades, Bob Prechter and Burt Dohmen, among many others - and the hardships he's survived, including the Great Depression, the Battle of Normandy, a heart attack, a stroke, and a motorcycle accident.

Russell also talked about the amazing things he's seen in his lifetime, including a home run by Babe Ruth at Yankee Stadium, the construction of the Empire State Building,  a young Frank Sinatra playing with the Tommy Dorsey Orchestra, and about how far America has come since jazz great Roy Eldridge made headlines playing with white musicians like Artie Shaw.

So in the end, it was very much an uplifting evening, one in which I was lucky to attend -- dire market forecasts notwithstanding.

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