Saturday, December 19, 2009, 5:03PM ET - U.S. Markets Closed.
There has been "slightly optimistic spin" from Washington and "unjustified euphoria" in markets about prospects for a near-term recovery, says Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at IHS Global Insights.
For that reason, he believes the Dow will have a hard time sustaining a rally much above the 8000 level for a sustained period. But at the same time, the economists believe the negativity was too high at the March lows and says the economy is "approaching a bottom."
The very fact economic numbers are starting to produced mixed results - some upside, some downside surprises - is a good leading indicator of an economy approaching a trough, says Behravesh, author of Spin-Free Economics.
He is forecasting a "true bottom" - or flat GDP growth - in the third quarter, followed by a "fairly weak" recovery in late 2009-early 2010.
That might prove disappointing to investors betting today on a robust recovery in late 2009. Looking further ahead, Behravesh does believe the economy will "pick up steam" in the second half of 2010, based on part on all the fiscal and monetary stimulus already in place.
Hey, the "baby boomer" generation is worldwide, not just in America. As people move toward retirement age, the cut back on spending. Then, they quit working. This means economic slowdown. Next, China is supposed to be an engine of global economic growth. Because of their "one child policy" most of thier youger workforce, people under 30, were raised as "only childs." Because Commie China values boys over girls, fully 2/3 of chineese inder 30 yrs old are male. (Fetal gender tests and abortions.) Single children are pressured by thier parents to seek professional careers. So in China, the near future includes over-educated single young men living with thier parents. The cheap labor of China won't exist much longer, and won't fuel any economic growth.
I wouldn't trust JPM's positive news against all the other negative news.
This is precisely the reason it's time to get in. If you wait for the recovery to be in full swing, you've missed the boat.
DOW is only at 8000 yet so many idiots already quoting 'bull market rally'. It would last dudes, plenty of trouble shooting to do with the banks starting with already forgotten toxic debts. Yup, its still there and increasing with more foreclosures coming on stream too. Only a month ago, the thickness of pestimism were to bad that any optimistic will feel down, way down. Creative accounting by the banks will only postpone and even make toxic debts worse. Let the bankrupt go bankrupt!!!
Once again, you sound typical of a Short Seller.. There seems to be a group of you ( the media ) hell-bent on distorting what goods news does emerge Why? Well, I bet you have vested interest in seeing a gloomy down market. Hedge fund maybe? I hope the market goes up and up because people lile you ( Short sellers, Hedge funds ) exacerbated what was already a severe economic downturn. You should feel ashamed of yourself because the gloom and doom you spread comes to reality in the real economy. Maybe it's time you lose your job!
Clearly, the market is ignoring the facts and signs of deteriorating economic conditions. Large corporations have stopped matching 401k accounts, Credit card default, Unemployment, and Foreclosures are all time high while consumer spending is dropping. How much can the market rise considering the current conditions? The fact is that, the market is rigged and making average people falsely to believe that the economic conditions have stopped deteriorating! The only profitable companies are the banks....banks are taking tax payer money for free from government…..they have taken the stimulus money at a rate of $.60 on a $1.00 and buying the equities........I would stay away from an unfair, manipulated market when it is corrupted….what is the difference between the pirates and the bankers (GS, JPM, WFC, BAC)?
Euphoria? If this idiot hasn't notice, we're still 6,000 off the high.
Clearly, the market is ignoring the facts and signs of deteriorating economic conditions. Large corporations have stopped matching 401k accounts, Credit card default, Unemployment, and Foreclosures are all time high while consumer spending is dropping. How much can the market rise considering the current conditions? The fact is that, the market is rigged and making average people falsely to believe that the economic conditions have stopped deteriorating! The only profitable companies are the banks....banks are taking tax payer money for free from government…..they have taken the stimulus money at a rate of $.60 on a $1.00 and buying the equities........I would stay away from an unfair, manipulated market when it is corrupted….what is the difference between the pirates and the bankers (GS, JPM, WFC, BAC)?
With the printing presses wide open, and the Washington/Wall Street axis running a float and skim operation, who knows how high the market will go. Hop on, but don't be surprised to see a thousand point down day pretty soon, perhaps three or four..back to back.
El Jefe, you are just an ignorant american. You really believe what america media tell you about 'one child policy'? Plenty of chinese have several children in China. What you dont realise is that these policy was introduce as the population on China was over 1 billion! Yes, China has over 1 billion population. And, you also dont know that plenty of chinese live and work in different countries such as Singapore, Malaysia, Canada and yes, America too. In fact, chinese are the only true citizens that embrace globalization. You can find China Town all over the world! So El Jefe, open you eyes. You dont know how powerful China is.
You can't fight the trend just go with it if you want to make money, it don't matter if it makes sense.
funny, the guy sounds alot more bullish then the Short Ticker headlines. The guy didn't suggest unjustified euphoria was his theme. When Short Ticker becomes bullish, that'll be the sign to sell.
Aaron can't seem to stand good news . . . got caught standing on the sidelines for this bounce, or still holding short positions. The market is working 6 - 9 months into the future. Sorry, Aaron! You missed out.
It's early in this crisis. Smoke and mirrors won't fix it!
It's about the banks, stupid! They're turning the corner, and, with them, the economy. The yahoos got caught on the sideline, apparently forgetting the the market is working well ahead into the future.
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- Thursday April 16, 2009 01:19PM EDT
Fear and doom! Typical Tech Ticker I mean "Short Ticker". Things won't majically turn around, but maybe the world isn't coming to an end either.