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Traders Mounting "Speculative Attack" on U.S. Banks

Posted Apr 21, 2009 10:45am EDT by Henry Blodget in Investing, Recession, Banking

After six horrific quarters, several major U.S. banks finally reported profits.  So is it time to celebrate?

No, says Simon Johnson, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute, professor at MIT’s Sloan School of Management, and co-founder of the popular economics blog, BaselineScenario.  In fact, if we're not careful, we'll find ourselves in another Great Depression.

What it is time to do, says Johnson, is look at the credit markets, which are telling us that the major U.S. financial institutions are being hit with a "speculative attack":

“The view being taken by people who trade credit in the United States is that we’re definitely not out of the woods. And I would say, in fact, there’s something of a run taking place in the credit market. Not a traditional bank run, but a speculative attack on some of the biggest financial players ….”

Specifically, traders are shorting credit of major banks, betting that the government won't protect bondholders forever:

”Basically these people are betting the big banks will be forced into some sort of default. Now, if enough people bet that, and if the banks can’t draw on enough external support, which in their case would be from the U.S. government, then these runs can be self-fulfilling. It’s extremely dangerous and a situation that’s really not been addressed by the U.S. authorities.”

Professor Johnson doesn't believe another Great Depression is likely, but he thinks denying that possibility increases the risk of it.  He says he's not trying to exaggerate but instead to urge policymakers address the facts and take corrective action.

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138 Comments

Reedersong
Reedersong - Tuesday April 21, 2009 10:51AM EDT

I thought this was what the bailout money was for. Furthermore, they will get more bailout money if needed. Another thought.....GM has now gotten about 17 times more than Lee Iacocca did when he turned around Chrysler.

DON P
DON P - Tuesday April 21, 2009 10:51AM EDT

After reading the AP report on the remaining bailout funds and the creative way the treasury is funding the various groups, I'm really depressed, feeling screwed with little faith that our political leaders will do anything more than create vacations to the highest bidder. Neither party is doing whats right for the country, time for all our congress, reps to go, until we vote them out, no change.

Turner
Turner - Tuesday April 21, 2009 11:03AM EDT

the attacks were noticed by the government starting back during the election. and why aren't they doing anything? hmmmm. isn't Soros short? Didn't he support Obama? Didn't he spend $2b getting him elected? hmmmm

R
R - Tuesday April 21, 2009 11:06AM EDT

Problem is, if all the banks failed, the only way the FDIC could have protected the consumer would have been to print so much money it would have devalued the dollar so badly, we'd be burning them in the streets. Of course, Odrama's stimulus package is a step in that same direction......

Jeff
Jeff - Tuesday April 21, 2009 11:09AM EDT

The entire country refuses to take responsibility for living beyond ones needs. Taking responsibility is everyones! Has enough happened to steer the world to a " one world banking system"? The slotter will continue with chaos as the danger in unemployment and people having a weak foundation, lack of morals, no discipline, and a president that is telling the world that we're not a "christian country"!

mmark
mmark - Tuesday April 21, 2009 11:16AM EDT

this man sounds like he knows what he is talking about. lets hope our elected officials can listen to sound reasoning and act for the best interests of our country. maybe they think that a good "depression" is what is needed for us. since we are to blame for all the world's woes. as obama is apologizing for us, for all the bad we do/have done in the past. as this man says, we could do all we can to correct our fiscal problems, but other economies of the world could drag us into a depression. how comforting...like a nice cup of tea. see you all at the next tea party!

donfurio
donfurio - Tuesday April 21, 2009 11:22AM EDT

Short Ticker, back in full force, wouldn't be surprised if H. Blodget himself holds FAZ and SKF, in addition holds CDS in all the banks..

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday April 21, 2009 11:24AM EDT

I'm a business diagnostician. I've been one for over 30 years. If a business listens to my suggestions they prosper. I'm retired now and have been studying the downfall of America recently. This really doesn't have to happen and it is preventable, but we have several problems that have to be addressed very soon. You can call this a Christmas wish list if you like, and can even cut-and-paste these suggestions and e-mail them to your gov't rep of choice and demand he/she act on them a.s.a.p. 1. Quit throwing money at the big banks. They've cooked the books and they're not truthfully revealing the shape they're in. Actually the money given them is used for bonuses, buying other banks, sending money to foreign banks, and hiring more lawyers for foreclosures. They are only lending to someone with a great credit rating. One at a time, the banks should be nationalized, their books cleared up, their CEOs fired, then finally break up and sell each bank into smaller (not too big to fail) pieces to the private sector. 2. To restore confidence in our financial system and bring people back to the stock market - these institutions, along with Fannie and Freddie, the SEC, and several representatives in government have to be investigated for wrongdoing. An example must be set and our government has to show they are serious about cleaning up all of the corruption. 3. The laws pertaining to the banks and lending must be changed very soon. Over the past decades the laws have been omitted or adjusted to heavily favor big business and what they can do. Some executives in certain institutions have been empowered to just write their own paycheck. We've changed from a democracy into an oligarghy, ruled and controlled indirectly by the super-wealthy. Some suggest they've seen Obama (and countless others) at the Bilderberg meetings. 4. Outlaw lobbyists. The last time I checked, our elected officials are to represent the people of America, not institutions, organizations or their own special interests. 5. Enforce the immigration laws that are on the books. I know Obama is pushing amnesty now but I figure it's just lip service and he's just looking for the votes in 2012 and realizes amnesty will have no chance of being passed at this time. Face it, America is really really hurting for jobs right now and to add to this problem would not be a good thing. In addition the illegals are a very large burden to several states now and becoming worse. 6. Do away with the h-1b workers. Again, legislation passed by our reps making it just fine to import more workers here, while our workers get a lay-off slip. Bill Gates, just how much money is enough ? 7. Get the hell out of the middle east countries. They don't want us there. We're just stirring the pot. This is just one more reason why the terrorists want to kill us. Good luck making peace there when their peoples have fought each other for centuries. 8. Legalize pot. Just pot. The war on drugs is lost. This is just like prohibition. Legalize it, monitor it, and tax it. This will soften the war against the Mexican drug cartels as well. Pot is a soft drug and is non-addicting (don't believe what your gov't tells you). 9. Go after the off-shore banks, British Virgin Islands and Swiss banks as they just horde ill-gotten money for the rich and illegal (and America desperately needs the revenue now). 10. Pass legislation to lower these ungodly credit card rates (see lobbyist). I think it's funny how Bush pushed through legislation making it tougher to declare personal bankruptcy before the end of his term. He's just taking care of the good 'ol boys. Greed is a disease. The more you have the more you want. I don't see it though. You're very rich, and you screw over the whole country and world economy to become very very rich. 11. Colleges - halve the tuition for American kids, while doubling it for foreigners. It's a damn shame we have the finest colleges in the world and our own children can not take advantage of that. We've fallen desperately behind the world in education and this should help. 12. Corporations - all money going to R & D won't be taxed. 13. Get rid of NAFTA. Did you notice the price of your new Ford drop dramatically when they started making them in Mexico ? No ? Hmmm you know that dropped the labor cost to almost nothing. With the savings a new Focus should cost $3000. Somebody's getting richer (see lobbyist). Thanks for signing NAFTA Bill Clinton. I knew you weren't a democrat when you did that. Let's get busy people and TAKE BACK OUR COUNTRY !!!!!

Lenny
Lenny - Tuesday April 21, 2009 11:24AM EDT

bail out the borrower not the lender banks will get the funds and joe home owner can pay goverment back that is the way. it is like having air bags in a car to protect the car instead of passengers

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday April 21, 2009 11:40AM EDT

This Entire "FIASCO & NIGHTMARE....DEPRESSION" Becomes...More, More, Intriguing to Me...When Is THIS...."BAILOUT Episode Going To End????? This Whole thing....Is A .."BOTTOMLESS..PIT" We are Throwing Away..Good Money.....After BAD Money!!!!! "THEY" Are Going To ..."BANKRUPT" The GOOD OL...U.S.A.....This Is Like A ..BAD-DREAM....With NO-Ending!!!!!!! This Is ABSURD....WAKE-UP America....America Will be A Third World Country....After Nobama Gets His WAY.....

Matt H
Matt H - Tuesday April 21, 2009 11:42AM EDT

The recovery has already begun. Cheer up people. www.matthindt.com

Michelle
Michelle - Tuesday April 21, 2009 11:42AM EDT

yahoo finance user I love your ideas, especially # 8

G.
G. - Tuesday April 21, 2009 11:46AM EDT

I can understand why they mount a "Speculative Attack" as the numbers are way too big for the World Banks, Treasury and Federal Reserve to pay down and/or manipulate as there is “estimated” (could be much more) to be over $574 Trillion worth of derivatives in the World Banks with almost $200 Trillion owned by the top 5 banks in America whom are technically bankrupt but won’t admit it.

ShankyS
ShankyS - Tuesday April 21, 2009 11:47AM EDT

Just look at charts of banking index and BAC. They are toast for now. http://shankystechblog.blogspot.com/2009/04/banking-index-topped-out.html

korokmalfesio
korokmalfesio - Tuesday April 21, 2009 11:55AM EDT

Financial Parable of the Day: Three average students, the homecoming queen, the BMOC, and the student body Treasurer, paid hefty premiums to attend a private college prep English composition course. They were asked to write matriculation essays about the essence of excellence. All were denied college admission.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday April 21, 2009 11:56AM EDT

Jeff K - Tuesday April 21, 2009 11:09AM EDT The entire country refuses to take responsibility for living beyond ones needs. Taking responsibility is everyones! Has enough happened to steer the world to a " one world banking system"? The slotter will continue with chaos as the danger in unemployment and people having a weak foundation, lack of morals, no discipline, and a president that is telling the world that we're not a "christian country"! *** So, let me get this straight... Everyone in the entire country has no morals, no discipline, and weak foundations? Everyone in the country refuses to take responsibility for this mess? Because we are not a "christian country", this is what happens? HOLY $H1T!!! You are very very ignorant and backward. I WILL NOT TAKE RESPONSIBILITY FOR THIS MESS... I HAVE NEVER AND WILL NEVER LIVE BEYOND MY MEANS!!! So, you need to get that stupid a$$ idea out of your head. Furthermore, this country was founded on FREEDOM OF RELIGION, not Christianity. You need to learn why the Pilgrims left Europe. It wasn't because they wanted to practice Christianity. It was because they didn't want to be told what religion to practice and how to practice it. LEARN SOMETHING IGNORAMOUS! Get out of the trailer park, go back to school, and be useful to society. ***

wobatus
wobatus - Tuesday April 21, 2009 11:57AM EDT

Speculative attack is right. It's a game. Regulatory capital limits are part of the game rules. The known scandal is the banks. The "unknown" scandal are the hedge fund scumbags.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday April 21, 2009 11:58AM EDT

mogleytheman - Tuesday April 21, 2009 10:52AM EDT Should have let the banks fail and protected the consumer. Let the billionaires take the losses they were entitled too! The smartest thing that I have read in ages!!

hollywoodBactor
hollywoodBactor - Tuesday April 21, 2009 11:58AM EDT

It must be the neocon disgruntled losers posting all the END OF THE WORLD. Sure dudes, let's let all the banks fail, AIG, GS, all the auto makers, the auto dealers, the parts manufacturers, the coffee shop across the street and let the DOW fall to 5000, S&p 500 fall to 500, unemployment goes to 15%. Yea, let's do nothing and punish every one. All the conservatives just want failure as an option.

ezshooter
ezshooter - Tuesday April 21, 2009 11:59AM EDT

One theory out there was to take the hundreds of billions in TARP money and instead of giving it to banks, give every worker over the age of 59 $1,000,000 to quit their job and never work again. It would solve unemployment and spur the economy.

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