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Bill Gross: Lies, Damn Lies and Government Inflation Data

Posted Jun 02, 2008 12:26pm EDT by Aaron Task in Investing, Newsmakers, Recession

Pimco's Bill Gross provides detailed analysis on what most Americans already know: The government's "official" data understates inflation.

Gross' treatise focuses on how CPI is compiled -- with hedonic adjustments and "owners' equivalent rents" --  in a way that's unique in the industrialized world. Such adjustments and a focus on "core" inflation -- or "inflation excluding inflation" as Barry Ritholtz calls it -- help explain why the Fed is far less concerned about inflation than central bankers in other parts of the world.

If the financial markets were to "readjust" to actual inflation, the stock market would lose 10% of its value and the bond market 5%, Gross says.

Gross, whose firm manages more than $800 billion in mostly fixed-income assets, fails to explain why stocks (and real estate, for that matter) will suffer more than bonds in this hypothetical "readjustment of investor mentality."

The other part of the story Gross omits is that the government has an incentive to suppress inflation, since Social Security and veterans benefits, along with government wages and other items, are pegged to CPI.

In the accompanying video, Henry and I rail about how America's political leaders continue to pander vs. showing any true leadership on the issue of energy policy and inflation generally.

But Pimco's Gross suggests Americans are getting the "leadership" we deserve: "Alternative energy discussion takes a bleacher's seat to the latest foibles of Lindsay Lohan or Britney Spears and then we wonder why gas is four bucks a gallon," he writes. "We care as much as we always have -- we just care about the wrong things."

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69 Comments

bobski2
bobski2 - Monday June 02, 2008 12:40PM EDT

It's about time for a "people's tribunal"!

you
Angelo C - Monday June 02, 2008 12:44PM EDT

IT IS ABOUT TIME THAT TRUTH IS KNOWN ABOUT THE "CPI" NUMBERS BEING KEPT SO LOW.

you
verlonlan53 - Monday June 02, 2008 12:45PM EDT

So we are all in a dream world. Tell us more.

you
diaph01 - Monday June 02, 2008 01:14PM EDT

the point that we have the gov't we deserve is all too true. how can Americans be so stupid???

you
NoServiceHere - Monday June 02, 2008 01:14PM EDT

these guys are idiots, Gross included... everyone gets the CPI arguments... everyone that matters that is... BIll and Suzy homehowner may not but Wall Street does... therefore it is already reflected in financial market prices HBlodget there is a guy with credibility

you
bot_feeder - Monday June 02, 2008 01:15PM EDT

Many have pointed out how crooked the government inflation numbers are, but when people more prominent in the financial establishment like Mr. Gross point it out, the prospects improve that the real story will become more widely understood, and we may finally see some pressure on the govt and Fed to clean up their act.

you
bz2981 - Monday June 02, 2008 01:18PM EDT

Bill Gross is right. For more on Federal Government statistics, check out CPI: Sophisticated Economic Theory, Terrible Ethics, American GDP: Can We Trust The BEA Data?, a nd Unemployment: What Is The Real Story? at www.tce.name

you
bot_feeder - Monday June 02, 2008 01:19PM EDT

However, it seems pretty gutsy for Mr. Gross to point this out. I believe the inflation-adjusted interest rates on bonds are already negative, and those are based on the phony government inflation numbers. Once people realize what horrible investments bonds are, considering the true interest rate, it would appear that people would head for the exits en mass and bonds would plummet while long-term interest rates will shoot way up, perhaps to double digits.

you
Bobp - Monday June 02, 2008 01:22PM EDT

no kidding? food +10%, gas +20%, medical +20% = 3% CPI duh???

you
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday June 02, 2008 01:22PM EDT

Can he say "balls"? That was great.

you
Jeffrey R - Monday June 02, 2008 01:24PM EDT

I can see the light at the end of the tunnel.. I think it is an oncoming train. It should be noted this has nothing to do specifcally with the Bush administration. Multiple administrations over the last 30-40 years have played with these numbers.

you
curtis a - Monday June 02, 2008 01:29PM EDT

"Henry and I rail about how America's political leaders continue to pander vs. showing any true leadership on the issue of energy policy and inflation generally." That sentence nails it. That is the biggest problem, no true leadership, not from McCain, Obama, Clinton, etc.

you
fourtecman - Monday June 02, 2008 01:31PM EDT

Housing we can weather.... Gas we are manange... but both of them at the same time. When gas goes up more than the world ecomonys rate of inflation something is wrong. Not only is it time for the Gov. to stop lying to us... it is time for the Media to reflect on what they are saying. Your home is worth nothing and your monthly gas bill is more than your car payment, We can not get the FHA Bill thur the Gov, 8000 people a day are losing their homes and we can not get even anything that looks like help for them, the stock market is falling. Interest rates are rising... SMILE.. Be happy someone somewhere is loving seeing us run around with our heads all cut off, while we figure out how we are going to fund the War in Iraq and how the Superdelegates are going to screw over Hillary. I dont know about you but the traffic on my street is at a standstill. WHY HAVE WE NOT PROTESTED THE PROFITS OF AT LEAST ONE OF THESE OIL COMPANIES. WERE ARE OUR NO GUTS LEADERS... THANK GOD WE ALL GO TO HEAVEN SOONER OR LATER...or will the media and gov. dash that hope also.

you
muchomochi - Monday June 02, 2008 01:31PM EDT

Americans got what they deserve by voting Bush in - once was enough but twice? We have a bunch of liars running this country who are in it to enrich themselves. Its true - Britney Spears is a more important headline than inflation, jobs, etc..etc.. How much does is have to hurt the pocketbook before we wake up? Thank You Gross! Please keep speaking up.

you
analogrf - Monday June 02, 2008 01:35PM EDT

Each person's "inflation" is different. If you own your home, rent increases do not affect you. If you have a large family, food price increases hit you harder than a single person. The elderly are more affected by health care inflation than people in their 20s.

you
frank951s - Monday June 02, 2008 01:35PM EDT

Government cooking the books is consistent with the corporate world lying about their numbers. We have a narcissistic culture that is also apathetic. We can all go into denial all we want and stick our head in the sand but whats coming still going to hit us in the butt hard. Anyone who does not feel the pressure of inflation probably have not bought anything for a year. Its really pretty easy to figure out. Oil prices go up, plastics, rubber, transportation cost (of everything you buy including driving cost), and EVERYTHING petroleum based goes up. Include that with the devaluing dollar (everything foreign goes up), you got yourself some serious inflation far and above what is published. Anyone with half of a brain knows it right in their pocket books. Inflation is GREAT for people (like most in the US) who have debt. If you owe $100k, 10 percent inflation a year will make your debt feel like $90k even if you don't pay a dime. I love inflation. I am betting on more of it. I don't trust this administration whatsoever. In fact, whatever they say, I take the exact opposite meaning and assume that opposite meaning is fact. I am one who don't give a *&(* about Brittany Spears' business. Heck, its her life. Its about time more people speak up about the BS being fed to us.

you
iduate - Monday June 02, 2008 01:42PM EDT

Be careful what you ask for!! Fact is it's either low inflation (= lower Interest rates) with Higher Prices (=protected home equity), or higher inflation (= higher interest rates and stagnation or depression) along with (= eroded equity positions and capital losses in equity markets). What damage has been done via the lies has been done. Let's not make it worse by flipping the floor out from under us! I hear you guys...in fact echo your thoughts...see my posts: http://centerchannel.typepad.com/sap/2008/04/post-partum-blu.html

David C
David C - Monday June 02, 2008 01:44PM EDT

Once COLA (Cost of Living Adjustments) and TIPS (Treasury Inflation Protected Securities) created the incentive for the government to understate inflation, they started making all of these "edonic adjustments" in order to screw the beneficiaries and investors respectively.

you
cherly.gerber - Monday June 02, 2008 01:45PM EDT

muchomochi what does this have to do with Bush!!! ? Watch what they do not what they say.....follow the monies.... You need to read more..... You and all who blame Bush for everything sound very ignorant can you say CONGRESS!!!!! I'm not a GW fan at all. This will set you free! http://www.shadowstats.com/- http://www.mindfully.org/Reform/2008/Pollyanna-Creep-Economy1may08.htm

you
mansobravo - Monday June 02, 2008 01:45PM EDT

Consider this: I Bonds (Inflation Protected Savings Bonds) beginning last month and for the next six months have no basic interest rate. They will be adjusted for inflation at half the real inflation rate, which means the buyer is constantly losing money, and will have to pay income tax on the accrued interest when the bonds are cashed. Talk about a gyp!

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