Wednesday, January 6, 2010, 4:23AM ET - U.S. Markets open in 5 hours and 7 minutes.
Pimco's Bill Gross provides detailed analysis on what most Americans already know: The government's "official" data understates inflation.
Gross' treatise focuses on how CPI is compiled -- with hedonic adjustments and "owners' equivalent rents" -- in a way that's unique in the industrialized world. Such adjustments and a focus on "core" inflation -- or "inflation excluding inflation" as Barry Ritholtz calls it -- help explain why the Fed is far less concerned about inflation than central bankers in other parts of the world.
If the financial markets were to "readjust" to actual inflation, the stock market would lose 10% of its value and the bond market 5%, Gross says.
Gross, whose firm manages more than $800 billion in mostly fixed-income assets, fails to explain why stocks (and real estate, for that matter) will suffer more than bonds in this hypothetical "readjustment of investor mentality."
The other part of the story Gross omits is that the government has an incentive to suppress inflation, since Social Security and veterans benefits, along with government wages and other items, are pegged to CPI.
In the accompanying video, Henry and I rail about how America's political leaders continue to pander vs. showing any true leadership on the issue of energy policy and inflation generally.
But Pimco's Gross suggests Americans are getting the "leadership" we deserve: "Alternative energy discussion takes a bleacher's seat to the latest foibles of Lindsay Lohan or Britney Spears and then we wonder why gas is four bucks a gallon," he writes. "We care as much as we always have -- we just care about the wrong things."
is it possible that any one of the three remaining candidates for the presidency could tell the truth to the american people during the campaign instead of repeating the half truths and lies that the candidates and their handlers believe are necessary to get them elected...as my Mother often said, "You can't have your cake and eat it too."....from the epidemic of obesity ongoing in this country it is obvious we have been eating our cake relentlessly for years
Thats because American brains are to poisoned with sugar, that they are to stupid to realize its all about tax, and no one will raise their voice and ask them what they are doing with all the tax they collect. .40 cents a gallon federal .17 to .28 cents a gallon county. Use less gas...they collect less tax. Make them accountable and you are labeled a nut. Ask yourself why you pay for a school district tax and a hospital district on your property bill, yet the two things Americans can't get are an education and affordable health care. If they can't use the current tax they collect to fund roads, educate, and provide affordable health care, FIRE THEM...RESTRUCTURE THE GOVERNMENT as if it was a publicly traded corporation....Do not create new taxes such as lotteries and toll roads.....Fiscally balance budgets are a license to steal.......INVEST.....DO NOT RAPE pensions, retirement,american wealth thru inflation! Sit down and add up all your TAXES and ask two questions 1) What are they doing with it? 2) What are we GETTING for it......THE ANSWER WILL EXPOSE THE CORRUPTION THE IS GOVERNMENT!!
The agencies are under strict "top-secret" orders it was put to them something like this: "There ain't gonna be a recession on my watch. Wait until January and then tell'em how it is." George Bush
The price of oil is the same as it was in 1960, it's just the measuring stick that has changed. When are people going to understand that we're not on a gold standard anymore, that the currency is not a stable unit of measure anymore? If you want stability, store your savings in gold and silver. The price of oil and everything else will remain constant with your savings. Good luck getting your salary to keep up though.
Bill Gross has a voice, we do not. I am happy he's talking. I no longer watch CNBC because Gross and one other guy are the only ones who talk straight and the rest just pump for they are more concerned with selfishness than righteousness.
Bill Gross has a voice, we do not. I am happy he's talking. I no longer watch CNBC because Gross and one other guy are the only ones who talk straight and the rest just pump for they are more concerned with selfishness than righteousness.
It would hardly take a genius to figure out that the govt lies about inflation. They lie about everything else, war in Iraq, reasons for invading Afghanistan (to build a pipeline for Sunocal), why we support Israel, the influence of AIPAC and PNAC, the weakness of the dollar, why we import so much from China. It's just another lie. When you go to the store and see prices rise by 15%, it's very hard to believe the govt's figures on inflation. People need to rebel against this lie of govt. We need to start electing people who don't lie or at least lie better.
Gross is CORRECT. Start demanding more of government. We need REAL leadership. Not the political jokes we've been served up. It won't just happen under the status quo. Like many lousy things in life, this is a long over-due chain that needs to be broken!!!! Energy Policy is first and foremost on the list. Starting with "Brit" & "Linds", perhaps putting someone on MARS is not exactly priority currently. Instead of fueling up the Shuttle, lets put up a few more wind-farms, nuclear plants, pipelines to ANWAR, etc. etc. etc......... good grief, we could go on for hours about it all.
Excuse me Bill... Did you...the GREATEST Bond Investor on the planet just have this epiphany on the CPI??? C'mon! You knew about it for the last 10 to 15 years but only NOW raise the issue? Talking your book! Which I am sure will be correct...BOND PRICES WILL DROP and YIELDS WILL RISE from here. But the fact of the matter is that is becasue we are at the end of a great credit bubble. YES...for the record I agree with Bill that CPI as reported is a complete lie. But Billy is raising that as an issue NOW because he knows where the yield wind will be blowing in the next 6 to 12 months and beyond. SELF SERVING as they all are. Hey Bill...Go hug a tree you joker! And stay in the office on a windy day...it'll blow you right over.
This all started with Jimmy Carter and into Bill Clinton. The country just followed along. You all don't get it. This is the continuation of TAX and Spend. Go Democrats, I can't wait for you to get back in office and TAX and SPEND. Drive our economy into Oblivion. 1. No credit cards for me. 2. No Mortgage, paid cash for my home. 3. Drive fuel economy vehicle 4. Wife cooks homemade meals, no eating out Have a good life...Losers.
Correct me if I'm wrong but didn't I see Mr. Gross on CNBC a couple of months ago talking about how the fed should lower rates and they were crazy because there was no inflation in sight. Don't ever forget how these people make money. Bill Gross included.
People like Lohan and Spears and their likes are only popular because the media invests in making them popular? Those people would all be long forgotten as soon as they're dropped from studio budgets. It's all a big fat show, sponsored by the media. In the real world, the people can give ratz buttocks about them. The writer is grossly categorizing the people as ignorant... One bubble pops and the investors go onto the next one, starting with the internet, then housing and now energy and commodities, food items.... pure manipulation and speculation, robbing the people blind. and then there is this so-called war, purely supported and exploited by war-profitiers. It's all about big money nowadays, no matter what damage is left behind. Government just made it easy by easing and/or dropping regulations to make it all possible, then manipulate the numbers to suit their needs, taking away from the retirees and workers, instead of those who are ripping everyone off.
Did this guy on the left say "some people have the balls to say". Nice.
Ron Paul was talking about inflation and energy. You all just weren't listening, cuz you'd rather hear Obama talk about "hope" and "change" and be coddled and told everything will be all right just as soon as we get rid of Bush. Milton Friedman figured it all out 30 years ago, but there's pain to be felt before things get better. Stop deficit spending, stop expanding the money supply greater than the rate of productivity growth.
IEveryone needs to understand what inflation IS and what it is NOT. Inflation is created by the govt which prints worthless money. Rising prices IS NOT inflation. Rising prices follow inflation. The inflation has already happened. Think of it this way: If no one had $128, no one would buy a barrel of oil. If you didn't have $25,000, you could never buy a car (nor would the bank loan it to you). For enlightment, go the Federal Reserve web site and look at money in circulation charts for the period 1950 to the present. http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/hist/h6hist2.txt
And Barack wants to be president? He will inherit the worst financial disaster since 1929. He may demand a recount and resign.
And Barack wants to be president? He will inherit the worst financial disaster since 1929. He may demand a recount and resign.
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RobertM - Monday June 02, 2008 01:46PM EDT
Henry has no credibility at all after his record on Wall Street. Why does Yahoo put this man on their website? Bill Gross once the bond guru has a lot to explain about his role in the auction rate securities fraud. Where was he and why doesn't he speak out publicly and get PIMCO to act in a responsible manner. As far as inflation figures the government does lie and that's not big news they've done it for many years. He's l,ate to the party this is old news, where was he 2 years ago.