Wednesday, February 10, 2010, 11:28AM ET - U.S. Markets close in 4 hours and 32 minutes.
The fact bank stocks have rallied and many have been able to raise private capital is a positive, but it's folly to believe the crisis is over, says Barry Ritholtz, CEO of Fusion IQ and author of the forthcoming Bailout Nation. "You can't drink yourself sober and you can't leverage your way out of excess leverage."
Many big banks remain technically insolvent and "are only being held together by spit, bailing wire and tape," says Ritholtz.
Banks like Citigroup and Bank of America are being "propped up by the grace of Uncle Sam," which can't afford to let go because bad loans continue to rise and demand for credit is falling, says the money manager and Big Picture blogger.
The banking system needs more time, at least three to five years, to deleverage before it can be left to its own devices, Ritholtz says, suggesting only time can heal the sector's wounds.
That said, because the government is propping up "zombie" banks, you can't rule out the Japan scenario of a decade (or more) of economic malaise, he says.
Full disclosure: I was paid for some contributions to Ritholtz's book.
The big financial corporations need to be broken up so they';ll be too small to endanger a large chunk of the economy when they fail. Either that, or turn them into utilities so they can keep the financial system stable and let the entrepreneurs take the risks.
Crisis far from over for banking. Support our own US manufacturers: www.myamericangoods.com
Experience never misleads...what we are missed by is only our judgement...It would take time to evaluate whether the stress-test process help to reduce the uncertainty...
Another bunch of crap from Tech Ticker... no substance... just this jackass thinks this or that jackass thinks that... Only 9% of all US mortgages are facing foreclosure, another 5% is close... The other 87% is fine and performing loans... bad loans are another stupid myth... the loans are backed by the value of the property... at worst the banks will lose 50% of the value of the loan but not 100% but they write off 100% for the purposes of reporting available capital. They will get the proceeds of the foreclosure and that will be a straight to the bottom line...
America, like a house of cards will unravel! The market is being propped up to deceive the public into thinking that all is well and sometime in the 4th qtr or new year all will be back to normal. However, Jobs are still being lost with nothing to replace them, houses still losing value and foreclosing. More unemployment as auto makers cut dealers which in turn will bring more foreclosures. Add to this the fact that social security will not be there for us, govn squandered that and Americans aborted the succeeding generation that would have paid in.
The thing to do of course is NOT prop up zombie bank corporations. Instead reinstate Glass-Steagall to separate the commercial bank from the holding corp. Then let the FDIC do its job of reorganizing the true banks, by writing down all the garbage. Then a healthy bank will emerge with new shareholders, new management, reasonable debt, and the ability to do business as usual. A side benefit will be the destruction of much of the derivatives market that helped created this "The Biggest Shakedown in World History".
Funny title... can you save a sinking ship by taking on more water?
MARKET ARE DOWN! BUY! BUY! BUY! DOW HEADING 9000 LEVEL!
If the government is keeping the banks solvent, why not invest in the banks? They'll never go under; your investment is backed by the US Government. Sounds like a win-win to me?
I love it. No one wants to believe things are bad and getting worse. Wholesale prices up and unemployments higher than expected... Prices up and fewer people with jobs and income to spend... how the heck do people think good things are hear? With no job, no income, lower spending, no more loans due to unemployment... where can we go but DOWN. Keep buying at the tops people!
Business is too big too fail... Government is too big to succeed... I am too small to matter...
Note that spit does not make a very good glue.
Business is too big too fail... Government is too big to succeed... I am too small to matter...
"at worst the banks will lose 50% of the value of the loan but not 100%" Wow, and I've been worrying all this time for nothing .....
They're looking at all the different possibilities...But nothing could be further from the truth...the uncertainty has led to anxiety among our people....
The market is setting up for a second, and massive failure. Look at the volumes people.
By the way: The crisis ain't over till the fat lady collects on her Credit Default Swaps.
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shags1_23 - Thursday May 14, 2009 12:46PM EDT
To the folks demanding disclosure: Did you notice the disclosure statement at the bottom? Aaron got paid by Ritzholz. Do I care? No.