Thursday, December 24, 2009, 3:07AM ET - U.S. Markets open in 6 hours and 23 minutes.
"99% of investors need to focus less on the big picture and more on what their stocks are doing," says fund manager Howard Lindzon.
But Lindzon does have some thoughts about the "big picture," particularly the endless debate about oil. Here, he gives the rationale for why $200 oil would be a good thing, because it might finally force America to get serious about alternative energy and get U.S. automakers to really innovate.
"Maybe it's important oil finally goes to $200 so we do something else," he says.
From an investor's perspective, "you can't be ashamed to be making money in oil stocks," Lindzon says. Noting that assets in commodity funds have risen to $260 billion today from $13 billion just a few years ago, Lindzon says it's crazy to bet against oil's rise: "If you're trying to top-tick oil, you are in front of a steam roller and could go broke."
So how does Lindzon, who runs the long-only Lindzon & Associates and is a partner in two other funds called Knight's Bridge Capital Partners, explain why he's recently been trying to short oil?
"I don't practice what I preach," he says, only half-joking.
Finally, someone make some sense and look at the longer term picture. Yesterday was 30 yr anniversary of x86. 30 yrs ago, computer is novalty, today, computer is essential. Why do I mention this? Because there might be oil shortage, and we might even exhause all our oil in 50 yrs. But within 50 yrs, I am almost sure (99%) that we will discover (discovered) and develop viable alternative energy infrastructure in place. Besides, it is not all or nothing situation, intrim solution will reduce oil dependency and extend the deadline. I think US should start digging oil, because it will become worthless in 50 yrs.
this is to howard lindzon. what kind of terrorist are you? what or do you even think about what happens to the american public (excluding millionaires and billionaire) like yourself as the price of oil goes higher? YOU ARE A DISGRACE TO AMERICA, A GREEDY SCUMBAG, JUST THE WAY YOU LOOK. JIM
"From an investor's perspective, "you can't be ashamed to be making money in oil stocks," Lindzon says" Sure, in the end, our mind allows us to put a positive spin on anything. What a meaningless and disappointing argument.
Although I might have said it a bit differently, the comment about Morgan Stanley keeping its mouth shut is spot on. Sure there are fundametals (supply/demand) driving the market, but you can't ignore the pure speculation of these people. It's a joke!!
I so agree witht the comment posted, it seems that the only people really making money with record oil profits is that oil companies, the oil cartels and the big financial companies. Because everytime one of these stupid analyst open their mouth with a bold prediction oil prices rise, even when most competent analyst are saying that there is no valid reason for oil prices to be so high. It is all simply speculation and nothing more but frenzy and speculation which is driving this mad rise in oil prices.
The unintended problem with $200 oil is that we are a distribution economy and energy accounts for forty percent of our food costs. If the sharp increase in food prices continues, great harm will come to those who can least afford the high prices. Be careful what you wish for.
Ask the Bush Administration where is the Iraq Oil Money? Republican succeeded in inflating the oil prices so the rich oil tycoons get richer. The oil producing terrorist countries with high oil prices can fund more terrorists to create a war atmosphere so that US defense companies can waste and spend more of the tax payer money.....meanwhile the average Americans are being crushed under high oil prices, food prices and high property taxes based on the bubble that was created by the corrupt financial institutions......
Also it will reduce the pollution in cities in most of the developing countries like india and china. They burn these oil like crazy and cities is polluted with smoke. There is no oxygen left out there. Hopefully new alternative energy shuold help these countries to stop this pollution.
"because it might finally force America to get serious about alternative energy and get U.S. automakers to really innovate" Nice euphamism for forcing Americans onto mopeds. The only real solutiuon is curtailing immigration & raising the dollar value except our trade enemies are paying us in dollars to grow immigrants, as long as we can keep up the consumable goods growth they'll keep buying our debt. A viscious circle of Barbara Boxer logic, continue economic & cultural suicide or have your credit cut off. We have a declining national learning curve.
Wha? He says oil is going to $200, but is trying to short oil at the same time? He did get bleeped twice on CNBC in the span of 2 minutes so I'll give him props for that at least.
People are going hungry because they can't afford food because their money is going towards gas to get to work, and prices going up is a good thing. Yeah, you are a genius.
Nice to know someone looks ahead. We should be paying 6$ per gallon today. With the greatest portion of that 6$ being used in Taxes to fund the exploration into other sources of energy. The nice part about this, is the largst oil users should be paying the largest amount of the taxes and thus the largest financial burden of taking on funding for new sources of energy. Of course, this only works providing we do not allow tax writeoffs for energy concerns. You guys driving the escalades should spend more money than those of us driving little Civics.
We don't have to see oil go to USD 200 per barrel. A shift in demand will occur even if oil stays for a longer time period near today's levels. This is pure speculation. Of course, the long-term picture is oil going up, but if it goes up too quickly (which is what happening right now) the bubble will burst sooner or later. This is purely irrational. The way the market runs, 150 will be seen in about a week, where the whole world will be long oil, and then, guess what, the way down will start and people will lose lots of money.
Lindzon is talking nonsense. $200 oil would be devastating to us and the world if we haven't come up with better ideas at $130 oil what makes him think that we will? The biggest factor causing high oil prices is our weak dollar.
Why not let oil go to $1,000.00.Why stop there,lets test the market at $10,000.00.At this rate we are headed not for a depression but a return to The Dark Ages.Greed never ceases to astound.
Could someone please figure out, post, and broadcast what the actual oil price would/should be if based on actual demand & supply? The price of oil and gas has doubled in 1 yaer. We all know that worldwide demand has not doubled in that period of time. So, the only thing that explains the creazy rise is speculation. But, as with the tech bubble, when the price has no real leg to tand on, it will bust. Someone figuring the proper price based on real demand and supply might be able to start the "bursting" process.
Yes, in the long run oil is going to go through the roof. In the meanwhile the pain will be great. But wait a minute - was'nt it one of the "experts" who in 1999 predicted Qualcom to go to $300 a share. This prediction was about 3 months before the big tech bust.
here is the magic fix......the oil companies are making RECORD profits in the billions, which they claim is in line with other industries.....howabout congress steps up and says no more, play time is over, youve now lost the right to make a profit, you are now going to be regulated as we regulated the airlines for decades and bam....no more speculation driving up these prices, no more billion dollar profits for your oil company, no more milllions of dollars in compensation to CEOs. yes this is anti capitalism, but this supply and demand nonesense is just that nonesense. the only way...that demand would drive up prices is if supply is short. guess what...its not....i haven seen any gas stations without gas,,,,,,ever. Congress just needs to step up and regulate the fat cats with big greedy paws. Gas is a United States need, not a luxury....it drives our economy by allowing us to get to work, to transport all our goods.....therefore we should not allow big oil to reap windfall record profits and claim that its a supply and demand issue, or a weakening dollar, or even investors....cut the head of the snake and not go after scape goats....no more record profits! they should make enough to pay their people, and their costs and expenses minus the billions of dollars in profit
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