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"The Worst Is Yet to Come": If You're Not Petrified, You're Not Paying Attention

Posted May 15, 2009 09:31am EDT by Aaron Task in Investing, Recession, Banking, Autos, Housing
The green shoots story took a bit of hit this week between data on April retail sales, weekly jobless claims and foreclosures. But the whole concept of the economy finding its footing was "preposterous" to begin with, says Howard Davidowitz, chairman of Davidowitz & Associates.

"We're in a complete mess and the consumer is smart enough to know it," says Davidowitz, whose firm does consulting for the retail industry. "If the consumer isn't petrified, he or she is a damn fool."

Davidowitz, who is nothing if not opinionated (and colorful), paints a very grim picture: "The worst is yet to come with consumers and banks," he says. "This country is going into a 10-year decline. Living standards will never be the same."

This outlook is based on the following main points:

  • With the unemployment rate rising into double digits - and that's not counting the millions of "underemployed" Americans - consumers are hitting the breaks, which is having a huge impact, given consumer spending accounts for about 70% of economic activity.
  • Rising unemployment and the $8 trillion negative wealth effect of housing mean more Americans will default on not just mortgages but student loans and auto loans and credit card debt.
  • More consumer loan defaults will hit banks, which are also threatened by what Davidowitz calls a "depression" in commercial real estate, noting the recent bankruptcy of General Growth Properties and distressed sales by Developers Diversified and other REITs.

As for all the hullabaloo about the stress tests, he says they were a sham and part of a "con game to get private money to finance these institutions because [Treasury] can't get more money from Congress. It's the ‘greater fool' theory."

"We're now in Barack Obama's world where money goes into the most inefficient parts of the economy and we're bailing everyone out," says Daviowitz, who opposes bailouts for financials and automakers alike. "The bailout money is in the sewer and gone."

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1073 Comments

GeorgeK
GeorgeK - Friday May 15, 2009 09:55AM EDT

This guy nailed it.... Love his comment about Tangible Equity ... its just moving the pencil on the paper....Giethner can not get any more bail out money now and he knows it, and still there is no TOXIC ASSET PROGRAM.... Foreclosure is UP.. this is getting worse not better.

Joe Collazo
Joe Collazo - Friday May 15, 2009 09:56AM EDT

Totally agree. Obama is pandering to Democratic special interest groups like UAW and SCREWING BONDHOLDERS! The USA is NOT GOMING BACK ANY TIME SOON! No investor would invest in US again. The President of the United States and his advisors cannot arbitrarily decide what bondholders deserve to get! Be prepared for this NIGHTMARE GO DRAG ON FOR YEARS!

GordonR
GordonR - Friday May 15, 2009 09:56AM EDT

Some of us suspected/knew from way back that the issue in the economy was simply too much debt. Maybe we don't understand the complicated financial terms and accounting gyrations; but we know if you owe someone a lot of money, and you must pay it back, then you are not going to be able to live a life of luxury until the debts are paid off. This guy is just plain talking like you and I.

Karl
Karl - Friday May 15, 2009 09:56AM EDT

Regardless of who you blame, Obama or President Bush, tha fact of the matter is, that he is right. There are still a lot of problems facing this economy and they will have a drag on the market. Obama's plans now will fall short of propping the market up. We simply can't borrow enough money from future taxpayers to bail everybody out, nor should we.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday May 15, 2009 09:56AM EDT

The government has done a great job of protecting us against foreign enemies.. unfortunately they ignored our domestic enemies... ie, themselves!

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday May 15, 2009 09:57AM EDT

This was know by the American people almost a year ago - they almost forced Congress to wake up and smell reality about the bailout mentality but the FedRes - the private bank of big, old East Coast banker money and Wall St (Goldman) Treas behinded (the scenes) the American people and played us right into the NWO hands. The game is over now - all that's left is how it will play out. How soon and how much will the American public (and it appears a good part of the old world and the devloping will soon follow when their expoprt markets dry up) get sucked into a much lower value of living and socialist control (mild socialism is not in itself bad but when it turns to socialist CONTROL it's the start of the death spiral).

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday May 15, 2009 09:58AM EDT

This was know by the American people almost a year ago - they almost forced Congress to wake up and smell reality about the bailout mentality but the FedRes - the private bank of big, old East Coast banker money and Wall St (Goldman) Treas behinded (the scenes) the American people and played us right into the NWO hands. The game is over now - all that's left is how it will play out. How soon and how much will the American public (and it appears a good part of the old world and the devloping will soon follow when their expoprt markets dry up) get sucked into a much lower value of living and socialist control (mild socialism is not in itself bad but when it turns to socialist CONTROL it's the start of the death spiral).

Joe
Joe - Friday May 15, 2009 09:59AM EDT

Open your eyes America! There is no way to stimulate an economy with borrowed money and have lasting growth. If the "CHANGE" is from freedom to socialism, keep your change. I prefer freedom and opportunity to socialized medicine and higher taxes. Decide what you want, freedom and free markets or tax and spend liberalism.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday May 15, 2009 09:59AM EDT

Well said Ed.. what is your scenario?

gpavlik@swbell.net
gpavlik@swbell.net - Friday May 15, 2009 10:00AM EDT

Well, the "American" people created this mess! The disfunctional majority that multipled like rabbits! Remember this country is only as good as the it's citizens. Unfortunately we (the people) have allowed this to happen with laziness and greed. The majority of people elected Obama and his administration and appear to support the destuction of the US. We have let ignorance and the Hollywood perverts prevail - too late to turn back!

- Friday May 15, 2009 10:01AM EDT

Can I vote for this guy for President? The only straightforward and honest assessment I've heard.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday May 15, 2009 10:03AM EDT

The worst may not be as bad as you think and the best will certainly not be as good as you think... I'm still in the negative camp until I see something good in my smoked up mirror..

giraffes
giraffes - Friday May 15, 2009 10:04AM EDT

Wow to keep yer doom and gloom alive yer guests are becoming more and more fringe ... doesn't that tell ya something? Soon the only ones left will be wearing tin foil hats.

Craig
Craig - Friday May 15, 2009 10:05AM EDT

The idea of a recovery in the face of unemployment, incipient rising taxation, record national debt, rising costs of basic needs like food, gas and housing- who really expects recovery under such circumstances? Yes, the market leads recovery. Yes, optimism is good, and everyone is deathly tired of bad news. Yes, most private investors need both hands and a funnel to find their own asses- "Due diligence? What's that? Take my money, PLEASE!" sometimes seems to be their motto. But this market is still under water- and Wall Street hasn't even fixed the dike yet, let alone pumped the sea back out. Green shoots? That was seaweed. We have a lot of work to do before the green stuff we want can start growing again. A few sharpshooters have done very well in this bear-market rally, but smart money has already cashed out in anticipation of the next contraction. When school lets out and nobody goes on vacation, you'll see what vaporware this "recovery" has really been- be ready.

D.L.S
D.L.S - Friday May 15, 2009 10:05AM EDT

This fella simply points out what should be obvious....Obama has blown the future of the next generation.We cant borrow ourselves out of debt,nor can Uncle Sam.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday May 15, 2009 10:05AM EDT

If you take a dump on your lawn.. eventually you will see green shoots.. if you put too much crap on it the grass will die..

JohnH
JohnH - Friday May 15, 2009 10:07AM EDT

Hey Reverendrurik you don't know anything about economics do you?? How can you not see whats happening infront of our faces. 1800 dealerships closing over 200,000 thousand dealership jobs GONE...This will screw part suppliers worst yet, ...Now you have more people who can't afford their home which means more forclousers. This economy is screwed. I'm sure Obama will hite about 400,000 temp cencus workers to make the unemployment numbers look better once again!

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday May 15, 2009 10:09AM EDT

horseattraction - Friday May 15, 2009 09:55AM EDT Just more of YAHOO doom and gloom.........................Consumer confidence was up.........Everyone is now an analyst..........I've yet to see tech ticker interview anyone whom is an OPTOMIST!.............................................................................. probably because there is no such thing as an OPTOMIST... back to school for you...

panayiotis
panayiotis - Friday May 15, 2009 10:09AM EDT

BEAR TIME BABY!!!!THE FED-BANKSTERS PUMPS ARE DOING NO GOOD!!!!!

robert
robert - Friday May 15, 2009 10:10AM EDT

Unfortunately he speaks the truth. We cannot leverage our way out of debt.

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