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Betting on America: Buffett Doubles Down on Derivatives, Ups Stakes in Wells, US Bancorp

Posted May 18, 2009 12:07pm EDT by Aaron Task in Investing, Newsmakers, Banking
Warren Buffett is back in the news as reports emerge of his latest bets.

First, the straightforward: Buffett increased his stakes in Wells Fargo and US Bancorp in the first quarter. The buys are consistent with Buffett's bullish comments about both banks during Berkshire's annual meeting in early May.

Second, the complex: Buffett has effectively doubled down on a controversial derivatives bet he placed on the S&P 500, according to The NY Post.

By selling S&P 500 puts in 2007 - just before the market peaked - Buffett's position declined dramatically in value as the market tanked in 2008 and the early part of 2009. (Puts are bearish option bets; the seller of puts is thus effectively long the underlying asset, in this case the U.S. stock market.)

More recently, Buffett has restructured the bet so that it pays off if the S&P 500 rises 15% from current levels over the next decade. After the market collapse and before restructuring the bet, Buffett needed the S&P to climb 70% over 18 years to break even.

Buffett told CNBC he "didn't spend a dime" to restructure the bet, but The NY Post claims "the potential risk of loss to Buffet and his shareholders over the next 10 years has actually increased, but only if the markets were to decline from current levels and remain there."

Indeed, it's important to note the reported $37.1 billion exposure represents his total exposure, assuming the market goes to zero and the Oracle of Omaha takes no additional steps to hedge himself in the interim. Furthermore, Buffett is essentially betting on America's long-term prospects and 15% from current levels in 10 years seems like a layup, especially if inflation picks up, as is widely expected. 

Still, a lot of people are wondering why Buffett, who famously called derivatives "financial weapons of mass destruction" in 2003, continues to play in this particular sandbox.

145 Comments

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday May 18, 2009 12:16PM EDT

Hey Dumb and Dumber--who's right, Buffet or you. Is the S&P at 500 yet?

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday May 18, 2009 12:17PM EDT

Maybe he is the evil man behind the curtain.... ha ha

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday May 18, 2009 12:18PM EDT

Hooray for the long-term investors! The bears and short-sellers are losing their shirts. INVEST in good quality small-cap funds, Energy and Materials funds for 5-10 years of good returns as we emerge from the Great Recession. Last-week's pull-back may be the last chance for bears to climb aboard before the recovery train leaves the station for good.

taxidnotnecessary
taxidnotnecessary - Monday May 18, 2009 12:19PM EDT

Because he can!!! He can play in this Sandbox all he wants & has no playmates..excpt the Chinese.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday May 18, 2009 12:19PM EDT

Place your bets, ladies and gentlemen, and don’t forget mouth-off about how productive you are, while you’re waiting for the wheel to stop turning…..

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday May 18, 2009 12:19PM EDT

Your right (for a change)--its hard to argue with his track record (unlike yours).

E
E - Monday May 18, 2009 12:22PM EDT

Never double down after losses. That's a loser strategy. Buffet is senile, or has dementia. Remember Nick Leason of Barings Bank double down of Nikkei futures. Buffet should stay away from futures, stupid old man.

Konsta A
Konsta A - Monday May 18, 2009 12:23PM EDT

Whatever....

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday May 18, 2009 12:27PM EDT

I have no idea where the SP500 will go, but I agree with the people who say a lot of boomers will bail when they think they are as close as they can get to recouping their horrendous losses ... then we can really see what the market thinks...

Sovestor
Sovestor - Monday May 18, 2009 12:27PM EDT

Warren Buffett is smarter than many investors; in addition, he is betting based on intelligence calculation that S&P will likely rebound by15% over the next 10 years. Do investors really believe over the next 10 years, S&P 500 will NOT be up at least 15% (btw, this is not annual increase)? He will likely make money on this transaction --- sovestor.com

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday May 18, 2009 12:29PM EDT

The markets can stay irrational longer than most people can stay solvent.. Buffet will stay solvent! Will you?

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday May 18, 2009 12:30PM EDT

I can’t imagine spending my whole life playing Monopoly with real money and real buildings, and never getting tired of it. Howard Hughes was more my kind of billionaire, because he had so many things going on besides just piling up more dough. Money was probably the last thing Hughes would want to talk about.

istartedi
istartedi - Monday May 18, 2009 12:33PM EDT

If the market goes to zero, that means we have bigger things to worry about. There comes a point where puts are pointless, so carrying that extra risk makes sense. On the GLD Yahoo board I told them that if they really believe in hyperinflation, they shouldn't buy gold but instead buy calls in companies that are well-run, but happen to be carrying debt. Maybe Buffet believes inflation will hit also, and is starting to employ that very strategy.

who cares
who cares - Monday May 18, 2009 12:37PM EDT

To E, your an ass! see the results from 1211.HK. Buffet bought 10% of this company in 2008. It's up 65% in a month! Who's senile? get off the blog!

j2n272
j2n272 - Monday May 18, 2009 12:38PM EDT

Buffet knows that nothing happens until the banks start making money again. So he is in early hoping to grab a few points. Then he'll leverage make more money, then leave. Nothing extraordinary here, but you got to have the large amounts of cash to do this and get in cheap. Not for the private investor.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday May 18, 2009 12:39PM EDT

Mirage or reality? Whatever..... Making the peaceful assumption means taking absolute responsibility for your own happiness and peace of mind.....peace of mind as cure for economic woes.....

HornIt
HornIt - Monday May 18, 2009 12:40PM EDT

Buffett is smart to look at the decade time frame. It might look like a bad bet in the short term, but will pay off once Obama and the Dems have been ousted and their spread the pain policies reversed for some actual pro-growth policies instead. That is assuming there are any actual fiscally responsible, pro private sector growth, small government Republicans still out there to pick up the baton. There should be again by that point though.

Not Sure
Not Sure - Monday May 18, 2009 12:41PM EDT

I CAN imagine spending my whole like playing Monopoly with REAL assets. I hope to do so one day. Why wouldn't you?

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday May 18, 2009 12:42PM EDT

The rules don't apply to Buffett the way they apply to everyone else. This is only part of the story, he's hedged and will win regardless.

K
K - Monday May 18, 2009 12:45PM EDT

Wake up people! Buffet has been, is, and always will be in bed with the government and Wall Street over class. These people always win. Small investors are the one that always loose on the long run. Keep investing fools!

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