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From The Business Insider, May 27, 2009:
When last we checked in with the good Dr. Doom, Nouriel Roubini, he was seeing light at the end of the tunnel. But he was still dismissing the happy idea that recovery would begin in 2009.
Well, Dr. D still thinks that the recovery will be weaker than expected, but now he sees it beginning in Q4.
Maybe these green-shoot things aren't a dream, after all. Or maybe this sucker's rally has been so persuasive that even Roubini has been fooled. (Based on the debt overhang and housing market, Roubini's argument that the recovery will be disappointing still seems persuasive).
Reuters*: SEOUL (Reuters) - Economist Nouriel Roubini on Wednesday said the end of the global recession is likely to occur at the end of the year rather than the middle, and that U.S. growth will remain below potential afterwards.
"We are not yet at the bottom of the U.S. and the global recession," said Roubini. "The contraction is still occurring and the recession is going to be over more towards the end of the year rather than in the middle of the year."
"There is still too much optimism that a recovery is just around the corner," said Roubini, a professor at New York University's Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Monitor, an independent economic research firm.
Roubini, who is widely credited for predicting the current economic turmoil, was speaking at the Seoul Digital Forum.
"A more sober analysis suggests we're closer to the bottom; there is light at the end of the tunnel, but it's going to take a while longer, and the recovery is going to be weaker than otherwise expected."
Once the recession ends, "U.S. economic growth is going to be below potential for at least two years," he said, amid multiple imbalances in the housing sector and the financial system, and the rise of public debt.
Roubini said the outlook for Asia was more positive than for Europe, Japan and the United States, thanks to stronger fundamentals.
"The latest economic indicators from Korea ... suggest there is the beginning of an economic recovery, and growth might be already positive in the second quarter."
The downside risk, Roubini said, was if advanced countries did not recover fast enough and if China's rate of growth started to slow again.
Roubini predicted China would post a 6 percent growth rate this year, a "hard landing" considering it grew by 10 percent for a decade.
A robust recovery in Korean, China and other countries in the region would depend upon relying less on external demand and export-led growth and relying more on domestic growth, he said.
(Reporting by Marie-France Han; editing by Chris Lewis)
See also from The Business Insider:
The worst is over for the economy
A quick recovery? Keep dreaming
Why Are Rates Rising? Do Lenders Think We're Screwed?
I am hoping we have averted disaster, but sadly disappointed that the banksters and fedsters and ratesters and polsters have been able to get away with such grievous fraud.. corruption is still in play.. seems we have learned nothing
just one concept is all you need to know....potato chips
Cash. Until I see stability, which may come late in 2010 or later. Obama is changing our way of life and that is going to impact us negatively.
Give it up Blodget. Even your lord and master Roubini is finally realizing he's wrong (although he won't come right out and say it). I hope you have a ton of shorts to eat--payback for all thepepople you have defrauded.
Take away equity withdrawals used for splurging and US GDP has been anemic for the last 10 years. With so many folks upside-down on their mortgages, unemployed and just plain spooked, how can the consumer (which represents 70% of GDP) lead us out of this hole? It aint gonna happen folks. PE's are still too high (and they're going higher with falling earnings) so stocks must tank just to keep PE's level. Stocks typically bottom out with single-digit PE's. In other words, we're going down people...look at the double-top setting up at www.BearMarketComparison.com
Even when Dr. Doom starts to reverse himself (finally), Blodget manages to put a negative spin on it. You need to DISCLOSE YOUR HOLDINGS Blodget. What are you hiding?? We've been asking for full disclosure (like any reputable analyst would provide) for months--and yet we get nothing. Nothing from a complete zero--not suprising.
Hey Dumber, why don't you go join Dumb (Task) on his permanent (hopefully) vacation. You won't be missed--especially by all the people you've misled. How is it possible for one person to be so consistently wrong? What's your secret--do you take stupid pills or does it come naturally?
I’d like to take this opportunity to say that I think the politicians are the cause of all our problems. What? I already said that? 10,000 times? I wasn’t aware. Oh well, you really can’t say it enough, you know?
At one time it was automotive failure and collapse. We we have automotive failure , jobs are being lost in all segments and we are looking at recovery. Someone got to Nuriel and told him to shut up. CMBS is a joke and banks are going under these are all signs or recovery, Did no one listen to the President on Sat. when he said we were out of money. This is Wall Street lies... I sure hope they work cause the truth has been failing us for some time.
How can a recession end while unemployment is still rising?
Recession: a general slowdown in economic activity over a sustained period of time, or a business cycle contraction. It will not end until unemployment starts going down and consumer spending begins to rise.
Any "green shoots" are weeds! With all the debt (government or citizen) the USA is doomed! How can anyone possibly ignore reality? This country is breathing on borrowed time. The majority of people don't have a clue what American mores and culture that our Founders believed to be fundamental for this country to work. Our so called "economists" are ignorant fools that do not know the basics! ie The importance of "savings and manufacturing".
Layoffs continue and the unemployment rate is still growing. With 70% of economic growth relying of retail the only light at the end is the slowing rate of unemployment growth. The housing market still hasn't hit bottom as illustrated in this weeks report. The only reason the banks are stabilizing is from bailouts, raising capital, and stock offers. They're still going to be extremely stringent on credit. We have not yet seen the end of this though I agree there is a light... although very dim. It will get worse before it gets better. Take off the rose coloured glasses
I don't know, I think it's very optimistic to think the recovery will start the end of this year, when we are still losing 600000 jobs per month and commercial realestate is plumeting not to mention more foreclosures on the horizon. This problem will loom for sometime sorry folks for the reality check.
Obama didn't create the wage inequity between USA and China nor can he fix it... most of us peons will have to get used to lower wages and a reduced lifestyle regardless of who is in office.. there is really nothing anybody can do about it.. manufacturing sought cheaper labor.. that's as natural as the sun rising in the morning.. you can't force the world to be on one playing field though that may evolve over time.... we will be lucky if we can just right the ship and limp on into the sunset much like England did at the end of their empire...
by end of recession you mean that the wealth has been successfully transferred, then maybe you are right.
If billionaires don’t believe in “free market” competition for their own businesses, why should anyone else believe their widely spread lies?
I do not trust Roubini, I used to listen to him, but I think he is fall of it now. The fundamentals stink, we consume way more than we produce, which is the only thing you need to know. The DOW P/E is 33, it should be at most 17, which would put the DOW at about 4000. Dont be fooled.
Every month that we don't have a recovery package, 500 million Americans lose their jobs!
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Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday May 27, 2009 09:24AM EDT
I'm on the fence... short term trading only.....