Tuesday, December 22, 2009, 7:12AM ET - U.S. Markets open in 2 hours and 18 minutes.
Boy, were people happy two weeks ago, when a 30%+ stock rocket ride from the bottom convinced everyone that we were headed for a spectacular economic recovery.
Spirits have dampened somewhat since, with the market going limp day after day. But stocks are still hanging around fair value, and a sense of optimism remains.
Well, regardless of what the market does over the coming weeks, don't embrace the happy talk that we're going to suddenly go right back to life as it was in 2007.
The key problem in the economy, remember, is debt--specifically, way too much of it. See the chart from the SF Fed above, which compares debt, wealth, and income. The good news is that consumers have finally started deleveraging. But their wealth has plummeted a lot faster than their debt. And if history is any guide, the deleveraging process is going to take decades, not years.
Take a look at that chart of Japan's experience below, from the San Fran Fed. Look at where they are now compared to where we are now (the series aren't apples to apples, but the deleveraging process is similar). Note that Japan's economy is in the middle of its second decade of stagnation. And its stock market is trading at one-fifth of its pre-deleveraging peak. (The analogous performance for us would be DOW 3500 in 2026).
In future years, US consumers will have to save money to pay down all that debt. The savings rate will likely go back to its level in the good old days--8%-10% of GDP (see chart below).
All the money consumers devote to debt reduction, meanwhile, will be money that they aren't spending. If our situation is similar to Japan's, the SF Fed estimates--if we go back to our pre-binge leverage ratios--this consumer deleveraging will shave 3/4 of a percentage point per year in consumption growth. (About half a point of GDP growth).

That doesn't sound like much? Many future economic forecasts, and many stock-market forecasts, are based on long-term growth of 3%+ per year. (The forecasts underlying Social Security and Medicare, for example.) Cut the growth of consumption by 75%, and you're also going to have businesses investing less. Add it all together, and you're probably shaving a point off GDP growth, so that the long-term growth rate might be 2%, not 3%. That makes a big difference for tax revenue (not to mention Social Security contributions).
The SF Fed's report is here. Zero Hedge has more thinking on this >
The borrower is servant to the lender! and the hand of the diligent bears rule!
Henry is a freaking genius...why can't anyone else see these charts! This whole mess is going to take a minimum of 5 years to get through so this 30% stock market rally---all smoke. Regardless if Dr. Doom sees greenshoot or not, we're talking about a huge rally in equities while Gold, Oil and the 10 year trsy yield goes up! Isn't the market suppose trend opposite to oil prices and the US dollar??
Henry is a freaking genius...why can't anyone else see these charts! This whole mess is going to take a minimum of 5 years to get through so this 30% stock market rally---all smoke. Regardless if Dr. Doom sees greenshoot or not, we're talking about a huge rally in equities while Gold, Oil and the 10 year trsy yield goes up! Isn't the market suppose trend opposite to oil prices and the US dollar??
If you guys are just talking about the internationalist stock market residing in New York, that is one thing. If you are blogging about the US national economy, that is something different. The stock market could advance 50% in the next month, but unemployment here is going to increase, and so are foreclosures and overall economic misery.
i'm dreaming of a 'red' christmas. that is red ink for christmas.
Obama's solution to too much debt was more debt. Or he is going to raise taxes and really sink the economy. What a choice, either way we are in for a rough road.
Finally something fair and objective from Henry. I think this assesment is pretty realistic....... In essence what the treasury and the FED are trying to do (whether they know it or not) is to trade sharp short term pain for dull long term pain......By the way, all the Obama pork will just make it sting a bit more.
No one wants to believe that things are still bad after all this time. All one can do is position yourself as best you can (bull or bear) and just watch the mania happen. The way the market is currently acting in light of the data is like how people act when they are high on drugs. Even though you tell them that the cops are coming and that the drugs will cause damage to their bodies, they ignore you and let the good times roll. However, sooner or later, the crash comes and then they feel sick and in disbelief when they are told their heart has damage and they will die soon. The people are letting the good times roll in the stock market... lets see how they are after it finally does tank.
What would YOU do for a Klondike bar?
I enjoy reading your articles on the trends. It's very insightful. Keep up the good work Henry.
It would be a good idea for Americans to start thinking for themselves and reading foreign newspapers....... wonderful articles about the US economy and where it is heading.
Why do we only get these reality checks once during the harvest moon? How come guys like Cramer and the Motley Foolers don't discuss "economics" like this?
I am still trying to find the "plan" to get us out of this mess.
Same old Blodget--trying to twist data for his own ends. Blodget's cause/effect arguments are never on point. The US is NOT Japan--not even similar. Blodget is not an economist--not even similar.
Ugly economic situation no matter how you look at it. GDP is still going down at an annual rate of 6%. Retail sales are going down. Jobs are going down. Capacity Utilization is down 13% in the past 12 months and still headed down. New housing starts are 1/4th what they were two years ago. What little profit banks have made recently was mostly based upon refinancing at low rates and selling the mortgage to the Fed. That is not the normal business model, and is no longer effective with interest rates starting to climb up. That market is now almost dead. Funny, just like the economy.
If you got rid of Obama, you end up with Joe Biden. Think about it. Joe Biden in charge. If you got rid of Joe Biden, you would end up with Nancy Pelosi. As much as I have no confidence in Obama, I look at the alternatives
Don't let Blodget mislead you--once an economic recovery is anticipated, the market increases. As the recovery takes place, even if its slow, the market increases. It may increase slow, it may increase faster than he thinks--but it will increase. The best time to make a profit is before it increases, not after. If you listen to Blodget (even though he's a known fraud), you'll look back and say "remeber when I could have bought..."
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- Wednesday May 27, 2009 12:12PM EDT
The Recovery: Coming to your town soon but more of a "B" movie instead of the blockbuster we need.