The Worst Is Over for the Economy

I'm not convinced. I saw premium gas today for $2.68, and it looks to be headed higher. I see taxes going up locally as well as Federal and State-wise. I watch retailers continue to struggle. I watch the Housing market languish. I see banks going under. I see GM and Chrysler turning into K-mart type companies. I see unemployment climbing into next year. I see our National Debt and Budget Deficits climbing ever-higher. I see States in real trouble, laying off Police and localities doing the same. ................. These things you cannot FAKE ,like Share prices that are based on CONFIDENCE and Statistically-Altered bank numbers.

reedersong these greedy sob's would do/say anythign to keep this house of cards running higher, I'll call uppon them with S&P lower then the March lows and see what they THEN have to say, I bett they'll call it A BEAR MARKET "SUCKER'S" RALLY!

Don't fear... Within 1 year this country will be in a true world war... The winner shall take the spoils... I hope the USSA is on the winning side... LOL...

These people don't live in the real world. They've been blinded by watching markets and statistics in a 20 year bubble. THERE WILL BE NO RECOVERY!!!!! Eventually, these people will figure out the simple fact that these debts can't be repaid. Economic collapse has only been postponed yet again, but the next time we go into crisis, there will be no scam for them to pull. WE ARE A MODERN DAY ROME!!!!

The peeps are broke, they go to work everyday for the banks and politicians - not for themselves. What a way to live.

An economist is a man who knows a hundred ways of making love but doesn’t know any women.

An economist is someone who gets rich explaining others why they are poor.

Bring on the next crisis!! Factors to watch: 1) Dollar devaluation as investors move away from safe-harbor US dollars into riskier assets; 2) Energy prices will increase due in part to dollar devaluation and due in part to US government missteps (ie cap-and-trade); 3) Interest rates will take off as # of buyers of treasuries decreases; 4) Treasury printing presses will be working overtime to print the money needed to pay for bailouts, Medicaid & Medicare, and Social Security. These factors are leading us into an inflationary period the likes of which have not been seen in 30+ years, and possibly the entire history of the USA.

A good empirical study requires three components: 1.A concise and sensible theoretical framework that is related to the questions to be asked, 2.Reasonably good data, and 3.An experiment or an event or a set of circumstances that give the data a chance to answer the questions asked. In short, the model needs to be identifiable from the data at hand. -Zvi Griliches

I love this quote from the above article.... These rates of contraction **would appear to be the largest that are likely to occur*** before real economic growth commences in Q4:2009... that is f*ing funny.. .. next....

http:/chinacrapwatch.com..............Invest in casket makers, funeral omes and cemetaries....Short life insurance companies

Economic forecasters assume everything, except responsibility.

http:/chinacrapwatch.com..............Invest in casket makers, funeral omes and cemetaries....Short life insurance companies

There are plenty of other people and organizations that also predicted the down-turn and don't have a rosy short term prediction. Out of control Fed spending in pork groups and projects, all out war on capitalism and achievment. Loosing paying jobs and increasing Fed/State jobs (what are they doing?). Loosing companies and talent to overseas markets. CA, NY, NJ and MD tax the wealthy more startegies have failed and their wealthy (and their companies) have/are moving. A facist Fed government and a main stream press that does whatever the DNC tells it. Foreign Gov are trying to sell their US bonds. With this sitcom you can't help but expect a wobbly recovery.

We are in agreement with Northern Trust outlook. Here is why: US (as well as other cash-strapped developed countries) economic recovery will mimic emerging markets' economic recoveries. It is a well-known fact that US relies more and more on cash-rich emerging economies to finance US deficits and bailout packages. If many key cash-rich emerging countries were to decide that they are too busy dealing with their own internal economic problems and want to reduce their exposure to US Dollar-denominated assets, then U.S would be at significant risk of running large fiscal deficit problems with lack of financing sources that could lead to rapid devaluation of their currencies and further reduce attractiveness for emerging countries to invest in US assets. Hence, U.S. is at high risk of being downgraded by major credit rating agencies from AAA now to one level below it; this action could potentially reduce general valuation of US Dollar-denominated assets including real-estate assets. However, consumer confidence level (a white-horse indicator in our view) is getting increasingly higher -- this is a good sign for consumer spending; if this trend continues, then US markets overall may surprisingly go higher from current level despite all the negative fundamental facts of US economy as the markets may be more flexible to forgive current bad data for much rosier data in the future (market participants become more forgiving and more forward-looking). Also, the fact that several major financial companies have been able to raise capital via private and public markets' offerings is a real-world proof that the bullish trend has legs. Instead intelligent investors should gauge the valuation level of current level with historical valuation of bear markets in the past 100+ years --- the current S&P 500 index valuation based on capitalization weighted-core earnings and adjusted for inflation appears to be on the low side. What does it mean? It means the markets may still be undervalued and have significant upside potential from current level. We are cautiously more bullish on America in the long-term as a country that has great political system, unmatched diversity, and entrepreneurial culture with burning desire to keep innovating. - Sovestor.com

There is no future in being poor. Heed those words. If you are wealthy, it doesn't matter what the markets are doing. If they are normal and growing, you make money on your stocks etc. If inflation is high, you bank your money and earn high interest rates on it. In down markets, you have the means to buy stocks on the cheap and also collect on dividends while the storm blows over. If your are poor, you have only one thing to look forward to: finding ways to do more with less.

Jan. 9, 2008 .... U.S. Will Escape Recession, Economists Say in Survey ............ (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. will skirt recession as consumer spending slows without collapsing, a survey of economists showed. Economic growth will average 1.5 percent in the first six months of 2008, matching the fourth quarter's pace, according to the median estimate of 62 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News from Jan. 3 to Jan. 8 (2008). The rate of expansion would be the weakest since the last nine months of 2001. blah blah blah..... Is there really any more to be said on this subject?

all bets are off if n. korea invades the south.

The main problem with economic forecasting is that it must assume many constants or absolutes in order to create a prediction. As we all know, the world is constantly in flux! The only time an economist gets it right is when he puts all the many and complex variables into perfect alignment. This almost never happens. When it does the economist is praised after the fact! See Schiff. The odds of an economist making two accurate predictions in a row are very low. The odds of one economist out of thousands getting it right once is pretty high! Unfortunately, we won't know who's right until after his prediction comes true! Good luck following advice based on economist's models! You are probably better off throwing darts at a board of stocks you like and then protecting yourselves with reasonable stop losses.

WHAT A BUNCH OF BULLSHIT....AND SOME OF YOU AMERICANS ARE ACTUALLY BUYING IT.......Go back to school and learn something about economics.