Saturday, December 19, 2009, 10:46PM ET - U.S. Markets Closed.
From The Business Insider, June 3, 2009:
Ahh, Jim Rogers, always good for a nice headline (see: above). In an interview with the Economic Times of India, the famously dramatic and bearish investor, hits on all his favorite themes, like the collapse of the West, the appeal of commodities and farmland, and of course inflation and the collapse of the dollar.
While he's negative on US assets -- he says he's gotten rid of all of his dollars, for the most part -- he advises against shorting this market.
It's a bear market rally. I was going to
say I don't think S&P 500 will see new highs. But I have to quickly
temper that by saying against the dollar
because the S&P 500 could triple from here if they print enough
money and the value of the US dollar collapses, then S&P could go
to 50,000, Dow Jones can go to 1,00,000.
Which is one reason why I am not shorting stocks right now. Because
there is a possibility of this sort of a thing. There is a possibility
that stocks could go through unheard of levels, but would be in
worthless currency.
And here's his advice to would-be money managers:
Become a farmer. The world has tens of
thousands of hotshot fund managers right now. If I am correct, the
financial community is not going to be a great place to be in for the
next 30 years. We have many periods in history when financial people
were in charge, we had many periods when people who produced real goods
were in charge — miners, farmers, etc.
The world, in my view,
is changing and is shifting away from the financial types to producers
of real goods, and this is going to last for several decades as it
always has. This may sound strange but it always happens this way. Ten
years from now, it may be farmers who will drive the Lamborghinis and
the stock brokers will drive tractors or taxis at best.
Sounding very much like Marc Faber, also an advocate of farming, who recently said he's 100%(!) sure that the US will experience Zimbabwe-like hyperinflation.
For more coverage, see The Business Insider:
F the pitchforks - we'll use guns and RPGs. I'm just waiting for the first shot in the new revolution to be fired so I can join in. Maybe they should let all the banks pay back the TARP funds. So when the option arms/alt-a/jumbo/and now not-so-prime defaults hit, all the megabanks can go into receivership and be broken apart. Public employees should be banned from working in the corporations they deal with after leaving government - all throughout government this causes corruption. Both our leaders and our bankers are conspiring against the people.
I am always bullish, as you know. Be careful, because the antichrist is among us, but BUY!
The "lucky" longs and the frustrated "shorts" don't really want to believe what is yet to come, gov is lying, much as WS does, enjoy the ride, no matter how long it will last, take a really deep breath, buckle up and brace yourself for an earthquake like departure from the financial world as you and I knew it! Nobody knows what banks have on them balance sheets, how many com real estate and credit card fallouts will be shaking up our system, the ARM resetting is upon us in 2010, I do not believe banks or gov, what I know is that you can't get out of debt by creating more of it! JR is right this market can go anywhere, yet when it has runn it scourse....lights out!
Yeah, it can go to 50,000. Would not surprise me at all in a few years. But first the dollar would have to be devalued to do so. So what does the number really mean?........................ I already predicted on here that we would see higher than that on the Dow at the end of the next bull market during the mania phase.
First we will deflate. Then reflate. Then inflate. Then hyperinflate. Later China will get a rebate. Maybe we can just give them a state at a reasonable interest rate!
Wrong! The morons at campidiot.com were right all along.. hyperDEFLATION, is among us for a decade to come. 10 years from now nobody will be able to afford a 20 cent loaf of bread.
Sure, remember those crappy RoboCop movies and OCP owning everything? Yeah, save those 55 gallon barrels and scrap wood too!
Hope both the DOW and S&P go to 50,000. Then I will sell out!
I saw Jim Rogers speak once ... senility seemed to be setting in.
Look at it this way, they may have to start printing the $1,000 and $10,000 bills again..... You could light your cigars with $100 bills and not worry. Jesus Christ, when is enough going to be enough?
I feel he is partially right, but he certainly takes it to the extreme. What I find true: "Become a farmer. The world has tens of thousands of hotshot fund managers right now. If I am correct, the financial community is not going to be a great place to be in for the next 30 years. We have many periods in history when financial people were in charge, we had many periods when people who produced real goods were in charge — miners, farmers, etc." Too long too many people have been making profit off false "equity" that helped put us in this problem. Too many pencil pushers and numbers crunchers doing nothing but manipulating the economy and making money of NOTHING besides the hard work of every day people like you and me who work a sweat to produce a tangible good. "The world, in my view, is changing and is shifting away from the financial types to producers of real goods, and this is going to last for several decades as it always has. This may sound strange but it always happens this way." We are not any closer to hosting generations of hard workers like the industrial age, nor reducing the people in white collar jobs (as he is alluding to). However, the ones that to cut back, tighten up the belts and learn to be more self reliant and sustainable, those are the ones that will survive. "Ten years from now, it may be farmers who will drive the Lamborghinis and the stock brokers will drive tractors or taxis at best." Thats obviously too far, but his point is that the ones that are self sufficient or those that produce tangible goods are the ones in the drivers seat.
Ok, at this point even I think these posts look like the guy with the sandwich board on the corner for the last 60 years screaming armageddon.
Jim Rogers would say something like that given a formula he's used since 70s, which incorporates the price of oil. What we need to do is take oil out of the equation once and for all. I know there's a few of you out there that get this, but if Exxon/Mobil, who I firmly believe drives our economy, still places high barriers to the alternative sources, then yes, Jim Rogers is not that far off. I don't think I my expected lifetime remaining of 40 years we will ever see Exxon and crew give up $2.0 trillion of top line revenue unless we have a catastropic economic meltdown. We're not there yet folks...but never say never. Your way of life is not guaranteed, even with a gov't stamp. Down with oil! If Obama gets this, and I think he spews political rhetoric, we can do it! The banking system may strain (for those of you who don't understand this then take an FX course and see what denomination oil transactions occur with), but hey they're failing us now through a derivative debacle. But we'll get through it with other offsets. Where was Exxon during the GM/Chrys/Ford bailout hearings? Hiding out in Texas LTFAO looking at the forecasted 2008 net income.
He has been saying that since oil was 140 and the crb was 400+. if he lives another 100 years he will be right once. he has lost a ton so far hyperinflation will come eventually it is not here yet. also why he likes the euro so much is strange. their debt is worse than ours. banking system is completely broken. just become a momentum investor already jimmy. it is so much easier and you are only wrong for a short while.
He has been saying that since oil was 140 and the crb was 400+. if he lives another 100 years he will be right once. he has lost a ton so far hyperinflation will come eventually it is not here yet. also why he likes the euro so much is strange. their debt is worse than ours. banking system is completely broken. just become a momentum investor already jimmy. it is so much easier and you are only wrong for a short while.
Cheer up America, it is not so bad...there is plenty in the world for everyone...we just to need to adjust
I think that we will need a wheel barrow to carry our money to buy groceries and after buying what we need the store will take the wheel barrow and give us back the money. It will be like Zimbabwae or the former South Rhodesia. The good news is that Jesus Christ will return before that happens and then the fireworks will start. Just do not take on the sign of the Devil for one that does will go to Hell forever and ever. The sign is 666. Remember, if one sees many people namely Christians (Those with the Holy Spirit) just disappear, then that will be the beginning of the end which will come in the next 7 years.
That guy screaming Armageddon was just a little off on his timing.. like most of us... ha ha
Don't get crazy. The asset management needs cooling down. Dollar will depreciate but not as much as you thought. The inflation/deflation expection is pretty much balanced now, maybe still toward deflation. The balance may shift one day, but if Fed is not going to hire a crazy guy, I think US is still going to provide the most stable financial market. This is a dull world, that's why most asset managers are not doing any good, since there is not much to do, and they have to pretend to be busy. Farming, may be even more boring. Who knows?
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- Wednesday June 03, 2009 11:34AM EDT
He uses lots of hyperbole but is usually at least roughly right. You should have him and Marc Faber on. You should also see about getting Harry Dent on too. A. Gary Shilling is probably my favorite guest you've had so far. The bee keeping segment was brilliant.