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TARP Payback: Banks, Regulators Make "Deal with the Devil," Whalen Says

Posted Jun 09, 2009 01:13pm EDT by Aaron Task
News 10 of the nation's largest banks have repaid $68 billion in TARP funds has been largely cheered by Wall Street, regulators and the press.

But the payback news is "evidence bankers are running the show," counters Chris Whalen, managing director of Institutional Risk Analytics, which provides bank stress ratings and advisory services. The banks and Treasury have created a "fantasy-land version of reality" that the industry is healthy again, he says.

Banks and regulators have "done a deal with the devil" by believing they can "pump up confidence" to bring credit spreads down and the Fed can keep rates down by buying Treasuries, the analyst says. The Fed is "fighting a losing battle," Whalen says, arguing the currently favorable rate environment that allows banks to essentially print money by borrowing for next-to-nothing and lending at substantially higher rates will not persist for much longer.

In the end, the TARP payback is a bad idea because it's unclear what kind of business model the big banks have without government subsidies, Whalen says. Given the still unresolved issue of toxic assets and expectations loan losses will rise in a "gruesome" second half of 2009, he expects some big banks will be coming back for more federal handouts later this year or early 2010, something the American people almost certainly won't stomach.

 

 

 

72 Comments

badteethsincebirth
badteethsincebirth - Tuesday June 09, 2009 01:58PM EDT

Yeah but I work for a bank that did not want or need the money-so now we are giving it back. Before you think "How does he know"-because we don't lend money so much as we are a custodial bank.

Whit Chambers
Whit Chambers - Tuesday June 09, 2009 01:59PM EDT

It is all premised on "confidence" and "change". I'm not fallin for it.

yogi9448
yogi9448 - Tuesday June 09, 2009 02:04PM EDT

Sorry Mr. Whalen you just don't get it..... We may never know the criteria in the stress test all the banks supposedly passed. That these banks are being let off the hook is probably because these banks have finally hired friends of Obama/Emanuel. Feds are buying treasuries to make up what China is selling. And frankly, when Obamination makes a decision what the American People will or won't stomach really doesn't enter into the equation.

USA P
USA P - Tuesday June 09, 2009 02:05PM EDT

We haven't had real capitalism, morons! Most of us haven't experienced real capitalism in our lifetimes. It's ALL A FRAUD! Money being only paper, government taxing us for labor, debt driving our consumption, manufacturing going overseas, IS NOT CAPITALISM. The WHOLE SYSTEM IS A FRAUD. I agree, we need a new revolution or renaissance here in America, until then, we are headed towards complete and utter SERFDOM. Ignorance is slavery and you and I both know ignorance is running rampant across the land.

korokmalfesio
korokmalfesio - Tuesday June 09, 2009 02:07PM EDT

The "value" of any particular bank cannot be determined unless that bank stops being shy about revealing the amount of toxic debt that it is carrying. So far, no bank has been willing to do that. So, there is going to be a long period of earnings seepage (10-15 years to bridge the real estate "value gap"), and some banks will bleed out. Bankers are not going to opt for the "make or break" decision. They will choose prolonged convalescence and cash transfusions (public or private, any donation will do in a pinch) while they wait for an improbable economic stem cell breakthrough that will eliminate unemployment and restore consumer spending, which isn't going to happen in the near term. The quick way to a healthy banking sector is "clean and jerk." But it doesn't look like that is going to happen. So, the 10 year recovery plan, the Japanese model, is rooted in intransigence, which is the preferred method of the Japanese.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday June 09, 2009 02:09PM EDT

What do you mean?? The banks and the regulators are the devil's agents doing his work. Create a situation, get a reaction and come up with a solution (which means enslave more people). This is how our "regulators" work.

yattaboy
yattaboy - Tuesday June 09, 2009 02:09PM EDT

Wha?? Just yesterday we read the oversight committee worries the stress tests aren't stringent enough, and should be carried on indefinitely until unemployment dips (whenever that event can precisely be determined to have occurred). We live in a society of information pips and sound bites, and then make financial policy based on those. The economy isn't like steering an oil tanker -- it's much bigger than that. I will be very happy to find out I'm wrong -- $68 billion buys a lot of pork spending. But I don't think nearly enough allowance is being made for existing toxic debt, much less upcoming and unavoidable new round. For example: You see all those "For Lease" signs on commercial buildings? What happens in a couple of years when the number of commercial vacancies doubles? We've all talked about additional sub-prime, or credit cards -- even for prime borrowers. And in my opinion, I've never seen a country's currency strengthen when national borrowing increases. The only thing that precipitated banks paying back TARP was a Congressional and Presidential threat to limit their compensation. All of these things tell me a lot.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday June 09, 2009 02:15PM EDT

not enough people have suffered yet

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday June 09, 2009 02:16PM EDT

Did the banks pay back the TARP money with some interest? Did the taxpayer make a profit on this deal? Anyone know?

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday June 09, 2009 02:21PM EDT

Just like the auto industry, the banks are doing anything BUT what they should be doing. They are stalling for time in hopes that the markets will turn around and all will be forgotten. That way, they can go on with Business As Usual instead of making the real and painful changes that are needed in order to ensure honest and profitable growth. Transparency in the banks... what about all of their Off Balance Sheet Toxic Debts? Enormous amounts of bad debt that are hidden away from prying eyes. Ever hear of the Dead Cat Bounce in the markets? This is a true Sucker Rally. You'll see.

mb
mb - Tuesday June 09, 2009 02:21PM EDT

It's all too funny listening to all this talk about capitalist. In order to be a capitalist you gotta have money and if you ain't got money you ain't a capitalist, you're either a working stiff or a bum. It's amazing to see how low the educational level of america has fallen. We have a bunch of people who ain't even close to being rich enough to be capitalist cheering as the wealthy capitalist rob them and their country blind. Then they stand up and defend their right to be robbed and pillaged by a bunch of rich capitalist, all the while believing they are also capitalist. A poor man ain't a capitalist he is the capitalist victim. Go Figure...

d
d - Tuesday June 09, 2009 02:26PM EDT

LOL, why is anyone concerned with "taxpayer's return on investment?" Its such a joke of a concept! Honestly people, do any of you actually think you will see a dime of that return, personally? Or is it safe to say that Obama will take that return and distribute it in any manner he wishes? On teh contrary, incresed taxes and interest rates we pay for directly. I want to puke any time I here Congress talkingabout taxpayer's investments. Such a joke!

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday June 09, 2009 02:33PM EDT

more people have to suffer

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday June 09, 2009 02:36PM EDT

Where does the TARP money go once it gets paid back? ACORN get it?

Dean
Dean - Tuesday June 09, 2009 02:37PM EDT

I will be convinced that our government is actually serious about managing money when the Post Office actually turns a profit. They can't even effectively run was is essentially a paper and box redistribution business. I will vote with my pen and plan to fire ALL encumbents during all future elections...the cleansing has to start somewhere.

James
James - Tuesday June 09, 2009 02:39PM EDT

My favorite Chris Whalen call: " Chris Whalen, of Institutional Risk Analytics, said: “What the investment shows is that Bear Stearns looks like good value at this level. Bear Stearns is a sound bank, I’m not worried about their future." 9/11/07

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday June 09, 2009 02:40PM EDT

There are many analysts and experts addicting to say negative. The more you listen to people like Whalen, the more you could miss out the train of recovery.

James
James - Tuesday June 09, 2009 02:47PM EDT

"What this country needs is a good old-fashioned REVOLUTION!", as noted by Powers Boothe to Nick Nolte in the 1987 "Extreme Prejudice". And after that revolution, "The first thing we do is KILL all the lawyers!", as Shakespeare noted over 400 years ago in his "Henry VI"! In both cases, truer words were never spoken! AMEN!!! Someone who finally knows the identity of the real culprits of all the mess.... LAWYERS! The most unproductive members of society... BAR NONE! Before they can extract their blood someone actually has to work and produce something. However they never produce anything, other than more laws to enrichen themselves. When people realize its not Repub vs Democrats... it's everyone vs Lawyers/Politicians... PERIOD!

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday June 09, 2009 02:48PM EDT

Democracy... while it lasts is more bloody than either aristocracy or monarchy. Remember, democracy never lasts long. It soon wastes, exhausts, and murders itself. There is never a democracy that did not commit suicide. Quote by: John Adams.

antonio
antonio - Tuesday June 09, 2009 02:50PM EDT

The less said, the worst off we are,there is no goverment,we the ,what was that saying,the first adme.......

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