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Despite evidence speculators are moving back into energy in a major way, Kedrosky believes crude's rally is mainly being driven by an unwinding of an "unprecedented twofer" that dragged crude down from its peak near $150 last July: Higher prices, culminating in a price-spike in early 2008, was the first level of demand destruction, followed by the "wheels coming off the global economy" in late 2008/early 2009, he says. "Now, we can stop discounting that [second] phase and talk about demand coming back in growth markets," such as China and India.
In sum, Kedrosky believes the fundamentals support oil in the $70-range and believes crude has reached a point of "loose equilibrium" between physical demand, financial speculation and what price the global economy can support.
"But it wouldn't take much more to start to infringe on recovery," he says, suggesting a continued rally above $80 per barrel could prove a tipping point.
We have more oil in storage than we have had in 19 years, so I don't guess supply and demand principals work here...now, for the last 8 years we learned that nothing would be done about the rising oil prices because Bush was an "oil man". Well, I guess Obama is also...the prices are rising regardless of all we have stored. All these folks just attach reasons why it is rising...falling dollar,etc.
I guess the price of oil is rising because of George Bush, right, morons? Good thing that you voted for Obama. If you think gas cost a lot last summer, wait until he starts tacking on more taxes to pay for his BS stimulus.
I guess the price of oil is rising because of George Bush, right, morons? Good thing that you voted for Obama. If you think gas cost a lot last summer, wait until he starts tacking on more taxes to pay for his BS stimulus.
I guess my testosterone levels must be at an all time low: Sarah just doesn't appeal to me today. What's that...? Oh...
Oil should 30 right now....millions of job loss daily. Who the hell is going to need gas? If you talk to your average person off the street you will quickly realize how bad this economy is right now.
There has never been a shortage, just greed and manipulation with the oil companies. Blame it on China and India the big demand, it takes the suspicion of the real culprits.
Yep a house of cards is being built. Stock market keeps going up and so does oil. I guess investors feel that the recession is over.
Hillary and Obama pay a visit to the mid east and prices rise, very interesting.
It is speculation that has the effect of manipulation. The margin rates to purchase oil contracts is so cheap it invites speculation which with all the money on the sideline being put back to work allows for "manipulation" but within the current rules. They should have increased the margin requirements on Oil when they had the chance!
It is speculation that has the effect of manipulation. The margin rates to purchase oil contracts is so cheap it invites speculation which with all the money on the sideline being put back to work allows for "manipulation" but within the current rules. They should have increased the margin requirements on Oil when they had the chance!
It is speculation that has the effect of manipulation. The margin rates to purchase oil contracts is so cheap it invites speculation which with all the money on the sideline being put back to work allows for "manipulation" but within the current rules. They should have increased the margin requirements on Oil when they had the chance!
Seriously, massive government spending can only go so far in propping up markets...and then what will sustain this upward movement ? whats the next smoke and mirrors markets that are awaiting us ... nothing seems to be on the horizon to make this sustain anything long term ....except consumer spending and they are doing everything they can to lie to you to start spending again....they say that america will change its habits once this is over ...lol... like they did in the 90's also like they did after the dot com bust...and now real estate....its almost like saying that history will NEVER repeat itself.....we've learned...thats why we should all buy oil again ...lol
As "liquidity" returns to credit markets, the banksters can once again borrow our money at 0% from the FED to bid up the price of oil. Simple as that. There is no oil shortage. Its a scam.
Oddly, Kedrosky is actually bald. He just combs his right eyebrow up.
I would agree that Obama needs to address this, and if manipulation is taking place he needs to at least call them on it so that the public attention starts watching and asking. Now all of you Obama haters will THEN scream about "free markets" and "Communism" and hear about how if we had only reacted to these manipulations and let the drill in Central Park everything would be hunky-dory. He WILL try to do more than Cheney and Bush, who actually at at laughed with Enron officials as they robbed California blind, AND put all of the most crooked oil men on his energy advisory board, the names of whom have NEVER been released despite a 9-year court order.
I used to check in on Paul Kedrosky and you really can't trust what he says. He just says what people want to hear.
If oil stays down too long oil companies will lose their ability to keep up with demand when we finally do get out of this recession. Drilling companies are going out of business and tons of people in the oil business are finding other jobs. It takes years to start production after the drill bits go into the ground and until that production can keep up you're looking at prices that will surpasses last summer's. There's your supply and demand.
Well, who would have thunk it, OPEC said $70 a barrel was a price and lo an behold, we are at $70+ Can anyone spell "r-ig-g-e-d" ??
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Ray - Friday June 12, 2009 09:16AM EDT
I guess they finally repossessed all those boats that used to bob in the background when Paul was being interviewed. I could swear I saw him begging quarters outside Nasdaq, but I guess it couldn't have been him because he wasn't wearing the black shirt (or did he already lose it?) Sarah, take care of that would 'ya?