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Second-Half Recovery Is "Nonsensical": Economy Still Descending, Ritholtz Says

Posted Jun 16, 2009 01:34pm EDT by Aaron Task in Investing, Recession
Wednesday's report of a 17% monthly rise in housing starts made for some dramatic headlines, but don't confuse that with an actual recovery, says Barry Ritholtz, CEO of Fusion IQ and author of Bailout Nation.

"Housing Starts did not ‘soar' as Bloomberg claimed; you soar high in the sky, and a move from ankle to knee level does not qualify," Ritholtz writes on his popular blog, The Big Picture. "This was not, as The WSJ asserted, a ‘Surge in Home Construction.' Rather, it was a bounce off of record lows."

Ritholtz's bigger point is that the free fall from September to March was so agonizing, it feels good to be in a "normal" recessionary environment, as he believes we're currently experiencing. Ritholtz compares the economy today to a skydiver right after the parachute opens - the fall is now controlled, but you're still descending.

Furthermore, the fund manager says hopes for a second-half recovery are "nonsensical" citing the continued pressure on U.S. consumers and lack of evidence of a business recovery, as evinced by today's capacity utilization data, the lowest on record going back to 1967.

Having been notably bullish in early March and again in mid-May, Ritholtz is now reigning in his optimism after the rapid-fire 40% rally. His fund is now 70% stocks and 30% cash, and he sees higher probability of a retest of the March lows this fall vs. another significant leg to the advance.

123 Comments

Steve
Steve - Tuesday June 16, 2009 01:54PM EDT

A bounce off of record lows, during the spring when construction is at it's height. The statistics are a bunch of lies. Just like when the volume in the DOW volume spikes when it dives. Cause the govt is propping it up, spending billions upon billions of taxpayer dollars, to make sure they can have their extravagent lifestyles. I used to work for Mr. Jones, of Dow Jones. He sold out right before the crash, expanded the runway in Kremmling, Colorado, just so he could land his Gulfstream Jet next to his bazillion acre ranch. Crooks, they are all crooks.

ken n
ken n - Tuesday June 16, 2009 01:54PM EDT

talking head,who gives a dam.

I'm Just saying
I'm Just saying - Tuesday June 16, 2009 01:56PM EDT

Yeah, now's the time to buy eco-stocks ....

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday June 16, 2009 01:58PM EDT

I refuse to read his book simply because the title is wrong. There is no bailout. We don't have money to bail out any entry. What we have is sell out. Sell out the public, the tax payers. I have been very careful with these people who "appear" to have pessimistic views. They appear to have all the facts. But the process in which they arrive at their conclusions is the problem. He lacks craftsmanship, as I said before. In plain English, the facts do not point to their conclusions/ Why this way? Their tools or thinking is flawed Henry, so far among all your guests, the ones who I have seen truly practice science are Robert Schiller, Gary Schilling and Chris Whalem. This simply tells you that Science is not easy. Practicing science can be very hard. The man's 70% stock holding is nothing but idiotic. We are on the way to self-destruction because majority of population can no longer handle the truth. Truth is very hard at this tine in history.

Jimmy
Jimmy - Tuesday June 16, 2009 02:01PM EDT

So Task and Blodget are letting Ritholz come on here and shill his book...that is truly amazing, seeing as how Task was one of the contributors to that very book. Seriously, have either of you guys ever heard of journalistic integrity? it's just too bad that this book isn't a publicly traded stock so that Henry could give it a bogus "strong buy" rating. Oh wait, you can't give a rating like that as a felon.

__A_YAHOO_USER__
__A_YAHOO_USER__ - Tuesday June 16, 2009 02:02PM EDT

I would look into just who is building homes in this r/e market melt-down.......maybe we have an enemy within.

Jed
Jed - Tuesday June 16, 2009 02:03PM EDT

Soon its Time for SH and DOG. I let DIA and SPY go yesterday. 2Q earnings will not be so "better than expected."

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday June 16, 2009 02:04PM EDT

I refuse to read his book simply because the title is wrong. There is no bailout. We don't have money to bail out any entry. What we have is sell out. Sell out the public, the tax payers. I have been very careful with these people who "appear" to have pessimistic views. They appear to have all the facts. But the process in which they arrive at their conclusions is the problem. He lacks craftsmanship, as I said before. In plain English, the facts do not point to their conclusions/ Why this way? Their tools or thinking is flawed Henry, so far among all your guests, the ones who I have seen truly practice science are Robert Schiller, Gary Schilling and Chris Whalem. This simply tells you that Science is not easy. Practicing science can be very hard. The man's 70% stock holding is nothing but idiotic. We are on the way to self-destruction because majority of population can no longer handle the truth. Truth is very hard at this tine in history.

Warren
Warren - Tuesday June 16, 2009 02:04PM EDT

All second half recovery are based over otimistics supply side economicindicaotrs from money supply ( doubled from 5 % to 12 %) provide trillion dollar cash infustion to banking, finance industries, boost up stocks market 40 % rally, and unadjusted season biased month ly data, home sales, supply chain manager PMI, ISM , these dat increased from March to summer, as more travel, home sales into May-summer peak season, plus tax rebate. All these activites, peak of after July as, it did last year. These economist only find slight improvement of GDP to -3 % in current quarter, it will sliding back starting 3 Q again, due ot continued housig price slump ( down 32 % from 2006 peak), soaring jobless at 9.4 % and mortgae and credit card default, foreclosre at 12.5 %, will drag cosumer, business investment. May housing start up 17.5 % in another supply side misleading indicators, like banking have eccessive liquidity, cash, to supply lending, but no credit demand from borrowers, 11 month unsold housing, May housing start up 17.5 compare to April is another seasonal error, we found almost every May sales are better than April, and May sales still down 40 % fro last years We will find 1980 double dip recession with slight recover in current quarter, stock market will be faced W share summer correction while take longer time for L shape recovery details on www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm www.osawh.com/macro.html www.osawh.com/SP500.htm soaring mortgae rate to 5.6 %

__A_YAHOO_USER__
__A_YAHOO_USER__ - Tuesday June 16, 2009 02:06PM EDT

.....liars figure, but figures don't lie!

__A_YAHOO_USER__
__A_YAHOO_USER__ - Tuesday June 16, 2009 02:08PM EDT

by the way.....I have this bridge 4 sale.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday June 16, 2009 02:10PM EDT

I refuse to read his book simply because the title is wrong. There is no bailout. We don't have money to bail out any entity. What we have is sell out. Sell out the public, the tax payers. I have been very careful with these people who "appear" to have pessimistic views. They appear to have all the facts. But the process in which they arrive at their conclusions is the problem. He lacks craftsmanship, as I said before. In plain English, the facts do not point to their conclusions/ Why this way? Their tools or thinking is flawed Henry, so far among all your guests, the ones who I have seen truly practice science are Robert Schiller, Gary Schilling and Chris Whalem. This simply tells you that Science is not easy. Practicing science can be very hard. The man's 70% stock holding is nothing but idiotic. We are on the way to self-destruction because majority of population can no longer handle the truth. Truth is very hard at this tine in history.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday June 16, 2009 02:10PM EDT

Don't buy this market.

yattaboy
yattaboy - Tuesday June 16, 2009 02:16PM EDT

Amazing how markets and people microanalyze every headline to suit their own pre-conceived beliefs.

franck s
franck s - Tuesday June 16, 2009 02:17PM EDT

I thought the national increase in housing starts was 25%, 5 starts last month, 4 starts the month before. That's a 25% increase right??

franck s
franck s - Tuesday June 16, 2009 02:19PM EDT

We're shooting for 10 housing starts this month, which will be a 100% increase over last month's 5 starts. The markets should explode!!!

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday June 16, 2009 02:20PM EDT

Once the bull came out from the cave, we can't stop the bull. A bull cannot run continuously. It must stop to rest a little. It is going to run again soon, very soon. The reason is, the economy is getting better and better little by little every day every hour. Today was better than yesterday. Today was way better than last November.

giraffes
giraffes - Tuesday June 16, 2009 02:21PM EDT

Why would he be 70% in stocks if he thought we were gonna test March lows?

I'm Just saying
I'm Just saying - Tuesday June 16, 2009 02:24PM EDT

It's not that they are telling lies; it's the way they are spinning dismal numbers. If you look at the increase in housing starts and forget about the existing inventory, you would think something is picking up. It is all the way they want you to see it. Then, they suck you in and close the trap... This Dr. Huang has some very interesting observations ( God, I hope he isn't Johnny Ike ) ... If you look at the inventories and the temporary service industry it just adds more to the gloomy news. And the slugs are passing cigarette reform bills and talking about national healthcare while people are still losing their jobs ???? Yeah. let's get all excited about the North Koreans and Iranians ....

giraffes
giraffes - Tuesday June 16, 2009 02:24PM EDT

Does the video have to load and begin at the start every time I click next message? ============================Don't support paragraphs.... ======================= no quote feature---------------------------Other thing worse than this are the guests...........

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