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Liz Ann Sonders Is Wrong: U.S. Economy Not Bottoming, TrimTabs' Biderman Says

Posted Jun 18, 2009 07:00am EDT by Aaron Task

"The U.S. economy is not bottoming, let alone recovering," says Charles Biderman, CEO of TrimTabs Investment Research.

Biderman takes a very different view on the "green shoots" than Schwab's Liz Ann Sonders, who believes the recession has already ended.

In taking the opposing view, Biderman cited the following: Income tax withholdings are down 5.1% on a year-over-year basis, based on the Treasury's daily reports. "That's an amazingly large decline in income," he says, and a much worse than the 2% drop ahead of the 2001 recession.

That decline in income suggests the personal savings rate is not improving nearly as much as the Bureau of Economic Analysis says, because their analysis is based on lagging data. 

More importantly, Biderman says falling incomes are going to make it very hard for Americans to make the $1 trillion in consumer debt service payments that are due annually. As a result, Biderman believes foreclosures are going to pick up again after the recent lull, with Alt-A and jumbo loans being the next problem areas. In addition, credit card default rates will rise sharply from their already elevated levels, he predicts, noting default rates at Bank of America increased to 12.5% in May vs. 10.5% in April.

"A significant portion of the $14 trillion of consumer debt is going to go bad," he says. "The negative implications on the [bank] stress test were nowhere near what's really going on."

That's one reason Biderman is short the Financial SPDR (XLF) in his model portfolio. Stay tuned for part 2 of the interview where we discuss his reasons for being "cautiously bearish" on the stock market.

 

127 Comments

Tups
Tups - Thursday June 18, 2009 07:27AM EDT

Liz S has more credibility than Mr. Bideman.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday June 18, 2009 07:34AM EDT

Start loading up on FAZ guys....

william
william - Thursday June 18, 2009 07:41AM EDT

Oh well

giraffes
giraffes - Thursday June 18, 2009 07:51AM EDT

Way to treat yer optimistic guests... Who wants to appear on yer show, if the next day you run a headline 'THEY ARE WRONG', parts 1 to 50 ... Back to yer shorting buddies... bet you don't call him wrong in a big headline tomorrow...

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday June 18, 2009 07:52AM EDT

Johnny Ike - It became bearish because everybody is taking profit... For safety reason..........market up and down only no more less than that!!! as long as there is a fear from the bearish sell ince the fear is over Buy and Invest...... --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Why the hell do YOU care what WE do, buddy?

yogi9448
yogi9448 - Thursday June 18, 2009 07:53AM EDT

XLF!! grow a pair dude, go FAZ, TZA, SKF, EDZ, etc......We'll need to wait and see where the nasdaq/SP stop this latest retracement before anyone decides recovery/recession/none of the above. China/Taiwan and S Korea market is definitley stornger than the US. With Fed spending like drunken socialists, nationalizing of private businesses and the progressive War on Achievement it will be a tall order for the US to lead the world out of this recession.

sirdon2
sirdon2 - Thursday June 18, 2009 07:55AM EDT

The recession is far from over, commercial loan defaults, jumbo loan defaults, credit card defaults, and yes even foreclosures are going to be coming hard. Stocks are being driven by speculators and Government buying, we will be lucky if our economy when the recover happens looks like the 1940's - 60's, most likely we will return to those glorious days of the 70's with the Carter administration, 18% interest rates, high food cost, inflation. Interest rates have to go up to stem off inflation but if not done properly it will get away fast with hyper inflation, then interests rates will sky rocket too 20+% at that time there will be even more problems with the number of unemployed, and the deficit. If the Federal Reserve is not right on top of things and tries to just give life support as it has been doing we will return to the 1930's and have a full blown depression but only worse for our system and people and not accustomed to hard times. If this happens the market will crash, bank runs will be common, and the government will not be able to control.

giraffes
giraffes - Thursday June 18, 2009 07:59AM EDT

OIl crossed $71 amid declining inventories... Time to ignore the decline in inventories and run the article about how oil is out of control and will reach $200 and will destroy the recovery..

sirdon2
sirdon2 - Thursday June 18, 2009 08:00AM EDT

The recession is far from over, commercial loan defaults, jumbo loan defaults, credit card defaults, and yes even foreclosures are going to be coming hard. Stocks are being driven by speculators and Government buying, we will be lucky if our economy when the recover happens looks like the 1940's - 60's, most likely we will return to those glorious days of the 70's with the Carter administration, 18% interest rates, high food cost, inflation. Interest rates have to go up to stem off inflation but if not done properly it will get away fast with hyper inflation, then interests rates will sky rocket too 20+% at that time there will be even more problems with the number of unemployed, and the deficit. If the Federal Reserve is not right on top of things and tries to just give life support as it has been doing we will return to the 1930's and have a full blown depression but only worse for our system and people and not accustomed to hard times. If this happens the market will crash, bank runs will be common, and the government will not be able to control.

harshing_my_mellow
harshing_my_mellow - Thursday June 18, 2009 08:05AM EDT

And this INFOMERCIAL sponsored by ------ Pepto Bismal, good for the bottoming affect when you receive too much bullshit.

giraffes
giraffes - Thursday June 18, 2009 08:05AM EDT

He has no idea what she is looking at.... well there's a great argument...

MaryD
MaryD - Thursday June 18, 2009 08:12AM EDT

It seemed to me Liz S was basing all her optimism on the questionable deleveraging (savings rate) numbers we're given on US consumer. --As well as a projection that protectionism will not get worse. And her idea that Chinese and others will take over as the world's chief consumers. It's true that absent any further shocks from mortgage defaults, credit-card defaults and banks (that is, if consumer actually were doing fine), everything might pick up in USA.

harshing_my_mellow
harshing_my_mellow - Thursday June 18, 2009 08:13AM EDT

Johnny has an agenda. He's just playin.... I have to admit, he is somewhat disconcerting at times, but .... we all ain't perfect.

Ron
Ron - Thursday June 18, 2009 08:15AM EDT

How long has this clown been short the S&P 500?

harshing_my_mellow
harshing_my_mellow - Thursday June 18, 2009 08:20AM EDT

Oil is not going to come close to $200/bbl. There is "some" justification for it to be at $70 - $75 / bbl, but anything over that is very, very questionable. These fluctuations have a lot to do with the US Dollar. With the current "reported" inventories, this is pretty much where "they" want it for now. If it moves beyond $75/bbl, there is either some kind of major political action in the Middle East, the dollar takes a serious dump, or Morgan Stanley wants to prove they can drive it up again. Hey, let's see how our government manages this segment of the economy.

Kelly P
Kelly P - Thursday June 18, 2009 08:21AM EDT

I agree with him about not trusting stats from the federal government.

Ted
Ted - Thursday June 18, 2009 08:23AM EDT

"Hit the Road Jack (Liz)...". Wouldn't it be nice to see somebody so wrong and misleading to be held accountable for a change. They all make these predictions that cost innocent people lots of hard-earned $$$. Their forcasts are proven to be completely wrong time after time but they still keep their postitions of authority and people continue to listen to them and take them seriously. Does that make sense to you? That doesn't happen where I live. Where I live nobody is rewarded for making false and costly predictions. Later, when they are proven wrong, we laugh at them and stop listening. In fact, we tend to do the opposite of what they say.

harshing_my_mellow
harshing_my_mellow - Thursday June 18, 2009 08:40AM EDT

WOW! Well the economists were within 4,000 on the unemployment number.... that is GREAT NEWS!!!! 608,000 v. 604,000.... we are well on the road to recovery ... this should be worth +25 points on the market.

Eric J
Eric J - Thursday June 18, 2009 08:40AM EDT

"Anyone who relies on government data deserve the results they get" then, in the same breath, he cites Treasury data. Is that a mistake or a hint? The title "Liz Ann Sonders -----" is plain rude, surely it is a mistake to treat your guests like that. All that being said, Mr Biderman is telling it like it is.

aubrey
aubrey - Thursday June 18, 2009 08:46AM EDT

in this market anyone can see what they want to see.for years we heard that the economy is strong don't worry everything will be alright even tho anyone putting gas in their car or buying groceries could see that inflation was in fullswing.some people may be saving but with furloghs and pay cuts the majority are not. play the dips

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