Friday, December 18, 2009, 9:51PM ET - U.S. Markets Closed.

New Studies Show Economy Tracking 1930s Declines

Posted Jun 18, 2009 09:23am EDT by Henry Blodget in Investing, Recession, Banking

So far, the collapse of the world economy since April 2008 has actually been worse than the rate of collapse in the Great Depression. 

The main difference between now and then is that most economists expect the world economy to recover more quickly than it did in the 1930s.

The cause for this optimism has been that the government policy response this time around has been much more aggressive. Most major countries have cut rates and ramped up spending to unprecedented levels, which some economists believe will stop the pain.

Of course, other economists disagree. In fact, we're actually all now participating in a sort of lab experiment that will prove or disprove one of the major economic conclusions of the past 70 years: That the original Great Depression was not an inevitable outgrowth of the wild speculation of the 1920s but was caused by "policy errors" after the collapse.

If the 1930s was the result of policy mistakes, we should emerge from our current swoon relatively soon.  It if wasn't, the new economic conclusion will be that there is simply no way to avoid economic catastrophes after a financial bubble the size of the one we just had.

Professors Barry Eichengreen (Berkeley) and Kevin O'Rourke (Trinity) have produced a startling series of charts that compare the progress of this "Depression event", as they're calling it, with the Great Depression. 

You can click through them here.

100 Comments

Antonio
Antonio - Thursday June 18, 2009 09:38AM EDT

This sucker is goin' down.....

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday June 18, 2009 09:39AM EDT

The MELTDOWN.....Is Going To CONTINUE.... 2 More Years....Amen

Reedersong
Reedersong - Thursday June 18, 2009 09:40AM EDT

Well because we were a lot more inflated with fake paper-worth than they were in the 1930's. Also, we are recovering with more fake paper, so what does that tell you?

juan_de_la_puta_luna
juan_de_la_puta_luna - Thursday June 18, 2009 09:43AM EDT

I wonder if anyone is taking into account the drop in unemployment has a large part to do with the number of unemployed whose benefits have expired?

Jed
Jed - Thursday June 18, 2009 09:48AM EDT

Stocking up on canned food.

MGA_1
MGA_1 - Thursday June 18, 2009 09:49AM EDT

The bubble is popped. This attempt at reinflation is going to end in disaster and just prolong the inevitable. We need two things from now on: * Balanced budgets * Gold backed dollar Can you spend your way to prosperity?

Dean
Dean - Thursday June 18, 2009 09:51AM EDT

The recovery will be a "W"...the latest bear rally put us in the middle of the W right now. Easy to see what is next before the economy can truly recover. Johnny, take another hit off the bong.

Oneal
Oneal - Thursday June 18, 2009 09:56AM EDT

This guy totally miss the analysis. If the economy does not recover soon, it means OBAMA's socalist solution, like FDR's socalist solution of the 1930's, does not work. And we already know form the 1930's that it prolonged the agony. OBAMA! stop dumping cash into your cronies pockets, ACORN, UNIONS and wasting it on pie in the sky programs.Cut spending drastically, pay ofFdebt.

donfurio
donfurio - Thursday June 18, 2009 09:57AM EDT

Just when I thought the days of Short Ticker were coming to a close..

wayne
wayne - Thursday June 18, 2009 10:01AM EDT

Johnny Ike, I've seen some of your posts, and man you're all blow and no show. What do you base your assumptions on? Do you need an eye exam? The chart at the head of this write-up and the behavior of the markets are tracking just like 1930s. Spending is good, when it goes into creating efficiencies, however the spending we are seeing (which is marginal at best) is going to soften a deeper effect on this depression. Yes, I'm calling it a depression, and we should all face this like grown-ups. I wrote about this effect in a post I put up yesterday and low and behold yahoo puts the chart up. Kudos to Blogget, you should stop putting airbags on your show like Liz Ann Sonders, who obviously is a sales(wo)man with really nice legs. (Nice touch by your producer).

Tom
Tom - Thursday June 18, 2009 10:02AM EDT

Can't Yahoo get news reports from anyone else besides the All Propaganda = AP news source?

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday June 18, 2009 10:04AM EDT

The popped global real estate bubble was the largest in the history of mankind. Stop denying the fallout and man up to the consequences.

eNewss
eNewss - Thursday June 18, 2009 10:11AM EDT

Theories aside, let us use our common sense to analyse what we just went through. Economic expansion based on huge spending is unsustainable. If people resort to risk taking and buying assets, sure we will get burnt. There is no point in revisiting great depression of 30's or recession of 80's etc. --sri

Cogitus
Cogitus - Thursday June 18, 2009 10:17AM EDT

Very Nice.

I'm Just saying
I'm Just saying - Thursday June 18, 2009 10:20AM EDT

Today's INFOMERCIAL is being sponsored by Oscar Mayer ... The place to go for BOLOGNA.... Now LOW-SODIUM and FAT FREE!!

there
there - Thursday June 18, 2009 10:21AM EDT

To even compare now to the Great Depression is disrespectful of what those poor people went through then. We have the benefit of what they went through to protect us. There's no comparison whatsoever.

william
william - Thursday June 18, 2009 10:21AM EDT

GGRN.OB

Kim - TalkingDesktop Software
Kim - TalkingDesktop Software - Thursday June 18, 2009 10:28AM EDT

Wow, this graph is alot more informative than listening to a talking head with a pre-determined point of view.

Jack Webb 777
Jack Webb 777 - Thursday June 18, 2009 10:31AM EDT

Trying to fix a DEBT BUBBLE with more DEBT won't work for an individual ... and it isn't going to work for a nation. What about this simple law of economics do the "wizards of smart" not get?

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday June 18, 2009 10:37AM EDT

"The number of people on unemployment insurance dropped. According to the government, that means those people got jobs. However, what really happened is that those unemployed ran out of benefits and still have no job." This deserves attentions. We need to find out if this is true. But I feel today's number needs to be analyzed to see if this is a one-time fluke or showing a even more troublesome trend as pointed out above.

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