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Forget About Iran, Canada a Bigger Risk to Oil Market, Energy Trader Says

Posted Jun 23, 2009 01:00pm EDT by Peter Gorenstein

The eyes of the world are fixed on the election protests in Iran. Yet, while unrest reigns in one of the world’s largest oil producers, crude prices have actually fallen below $70 a barrel. Stephen Schork, editor of The Schork Report, says that’s because traders have already priced in the risk.

Get this: The big risk to prices, Schork says, comes from our friendly neighbors to the north. Canada is America’s biggest supplier of oil - most of it coming from tar sands. The problem, according to Schork, is that the Obama administration has taken “a rather belligerent stance” toward that supply because it’s not environmentally friendly. If the administration increased taxes on Canadian oil it “could be displaced...that will have an uplift to prices,” he goes on to say.

And, don’t forget the risk south of the border. Maturing oil fields, drug cartels and political instability in Mexico have the potential to drive up prices. If the U.S. doesn’t pay more attention to these risk factors, investment will continue to dry up and leave us paying more at the pump, Schork warns.

So while everyone is focused on geopolitical “hot-spots” like Iran, Nigeria and Venezuela, the real risk to crude prices may be much closer to home.

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184 Comments

Oneal
Oneal - Tuesday June 23, 2009 01:08PM EDT

Expect Obama to screw all of this up. He wants to bankrupt the US and usher in a global socalist economy. Its hard work to look like you care when you really do not.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday June 23, 2009 01:11PM EDT

Obama belligerent!!!! The HELL you say! Obama has flown all over the world to apologize for everything regardless if the USA was involved or not. This is total fabrication. Eric Holder should be told about this.

Steve
Steve - Tuesday June 23, 2009 01:19PM EDT

Too much of our economic concerns are based on areas that the media likes to focus on when we need to make sure we're solid with our neighbors and have a strong foundation. If we don't take care of them, and something does happen, say in Iran, they will be less likely and less willing to come to our aid...

yattaboy
yattaboy - Tuesday June 23, 2009 01:20PM EDT

Yeah, well, you also have to look at the other side of the coin. I can tell you that Canadians want/need to sell sands-crude to the States -- that's what allows Parliament to pass and continue generous entitlements. The US needs to buy, Canada needs to sell. Shipping to alternative markets is possible -- but what would you rather do, send oil tankers across two oceans to customers, or send it over a couple of pipelines over a drainage-ditch-embarcated border?

Bob
Bob - Tuesday June 23, 2009 01:23PM EDT

Don't forget CNQ and IMO . All part of the Canada tar sands development. Shell, (RDS.A) I think has the largest share. Keep writing articles. Oil is very important to US recovery. Best Wishes Robert Sare

Roger P
Roger P - Tuesday June 23, 2009 01:31PM EDT

I've been warning about Canada for years.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday June 23, 2009 01:32PM EDT

You see, all you people talking about Johnny Ike. He's now all wound up yammering away ... I hope you people are happy. From now on, just leave it alone ...

franck s
franck s - Tuesday June 23, 2009 01:33PM EDT

Wild speculation about speculation. Senseless sentence spittle.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday June 23, 2009 01:37PM EDT

yattaboy yattaboy. exactly. What is needed is a stable and reasonable pricing of oil otherwise investments will not be made and Canadian and Mexican (US also) projects will be shutdown.

Tan Liu
Tan Liu - Tuesday June 23, 2009 01:44PM EDT

Why would anyone even consider the events in Iran shake oil prices? 1) It doesn't matter who's in charge, Iran is not going to stop exporting oil or else it will starve. 2) The current instability in Iran is not caused by the extremists who could affect oil prices, but the moderates who are more likely to open up the borders, which would push oil prices down. The extremists that could push oil prices up are not fighting for power because they are already in power and have been in power for the past 40 years. 3) The only thing in Iran that could cause a spike in Oil prices is if people go on strike and stop going to work, but even if that does happen, it will be very temporary and fundementally should not affect prices in any way. I don't understand why the brightest minds on wall street can't see this.

Richie B
Richie B - Tuesday June 23, 2009 01:45PM EDT

I hate this crap! Why doesn't oil cost what the market dictates? Because countries want to fund their political machines and investors want a return or a hedge against inflation. We all suffer because of greed and power. I have always thought I was a full blown capitalist but frankly all I see the last several years is the ugly side of capitalism not the positive.

Stephen S
Stephen S - Tuesday June 23, 2009 01:46PM EDT

The biggest danger to oil sands production is from Canadian taxes, not U.S. taxes. Alberta especially has curtailed investment by high taxes.

toby
toby - Tuesday June 23, 2009 01:49PM EDT

If there is a ready market for Canadian tar sands elsewhere in the world and it is sold there, that oil will 'displace' other supplies. Lighter, sweeter crude is priced higher than heavy/tar sand oil for good reason, production costs (including waste management) are lower. I have lived (luckily upwind) near oil refineries for 40 years. There has been constant community turmoil for that long and longer about the pollution, smells, etc. The disaffected are not wild eyed environmentalists, they are people too poor to move away from the near vicinity of the refineries. They live with the high athsma rates, soot, flares, COPD, etc. Environmental costs are real and environmental degredation has a very real effect on peoples health and mental well being. You have to spend money to mitigate those effects, but it is the smart thing to do in the long run, not just the politically correct thing to do.

PARKER
PARKER - Tuesday June 23, 2009 01:49PM EDT

Remember Obama voters...you put him office...especially the "college students" who are clueless.

Toeser
Toeser - Tuesday June 23, 2009 01:52PM EDT

I fear that Obama, Pelosi, and Reid will have us back to the stone age in 10 years. The Republicans sucked, but these people are outright dangerous through their ignorance. For all you misinformed tree huggers, try running your car on a windmill. We absolutely need to get serious about developing alternative energy and conservation. But we also need to use one hell of a lot of coal and oil to get us to the point where alternatives can carry the ball. That's 20 years away, at least.

Dominick
Dominick - Tuesday June 23, 2009 01:52PM EDT

I worked as energy broker for last 15 years now looking for job. If any one has an opening please contact me @ dominickcaglioti@yahoo.com.

robert
robert - Tuesday June 23, 2009 01:53PM EDT

We amateurs should NOT SHORT oil. It can skyrocket to $200/BARREL overnight, whenever Israel destroys Iran's atomic bomb factories. Shork is a Pollyanna about Iran. Instead, we little speculators should patiently hope that oil will crash to TWENTY DOLLARS PER BARREL just before Israel bombs Iran; then we financial shrimps can boldly buy all those Canadian dirty-oil-tar-sands companies at bargain prices--for a very safe 10 year LONG OIL PLAY.

chistletoe
chistletoe - Tuesday June 23, 2009 01:53PM EDT

"most of it from the tar sand"? that's just what we need now, more disinformation ... All the tar sands producers combined produce less than 1M b/d, but the US imports 2.5M b/d from Canada ...

Jack
Jack - Tuesday June 23, 2009 01:54PM EDT

We could be extracting oil in a similar manner - shale oil instead of tar sands but the libdems have banned it. We have more oil in shale reserves than in all of Saudi Arabia, but Obama and the dems say NO. Now they want to punish Canada. IDIOTS!

Don
Don - Tuesday June 23, 2009 01:56PM EDT

we have the most oil in the world shale oil in the N.D, & S.D. billions of gallons

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