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Goldman Primed to Benefit from AIG's Woes -- Again, William Cohan Says

Posted Jul 02, 2009 10:28am EDT by Aaron Task in Newsmakers, Banking

When Wall Street imploded last year, the Fed and Treasury took "some of the right moves" in order to revive the financial system, says William Cohan, author of House of Cards. But the government blew at least one crucial act of the saga, Cohan says: The backdoor bailout of AIG’s counterparties, notably Goldman Sachs, which received $13 billion of TARP funds via the AIG conduit last fall.

Adding insult to taxpayer injury, Goldman Sachs is primed to benefit should AIG ultimately file for bankruptcy and default on its debt, Cohan reports, having invested about $200 million in related credit default swaps.

Goldman spokesman Michael DuVally confirms the firm spent “over $100 million” on credit default swaps to hedge a $2.5 billion difference between the amount of collateral AIG had posted on certain trades and the amount Goldman thought it was due.

But DuVally says the trades were “wound down because we received the collateral owed,” a reference to the $13 billion the firm received via the AIG conduit last fall.

“They’re gone,” he says. “There will not be a credit event because the government decided to bail AIG out.”To be sure, there's no evidence an AIG default is imminent - or even likely given the government's seemingly endless support.

Still, Cohan disputes DuVally's characterization and AIG's 1-for-20 reverse stock split Wednesday did little to instill confidence in the firm.

Goldman “paid for credit default swaps from third parties to ensure them against a default in AIG debt,” he says in a phone conversation subsequent to the accompanying video. “ If AIG debt does [go into] default they get paid off.”

Furthermore, “it makes no sense to unwind” the trade, Cohan says, comparing it to a homeowner who pays for flood insurance and then says “I paid the premium but don’t want the insurance.”

According to Goldman, the firm used CDS to hedge its exposure to AIG, as any smart counterparty should, but then unwound the trade once the government stepped in. If that’s the case, then the firm is not positioned to directly profit from an AIG default.

But if Cohan is right, Goldman is set up to potentially double-dip from the AIG debacle, having already profited from the government’s bailout last fall. Actually, this might be a triple-dip for Goldman if you count the $10 billion of TARP funds the firm received -- and recently repaid.

“Why didn’t we just take stakes in Goldman and Morgan Stanley?,” wonders Cohan, a former investment banker. “We’re never going to get that $180 billion back from AIG.”

The AIG bailout, and the alphabet soup of programs -- TALF, PPIP, TARP – are part of what Cohan calls a “morphine drip” of programs the Fed has put the economy and Wall Street on. The programs are  “designed to make us all feel good and artificially prop up various aspects of the capital market system that might otherwise not be operating properly,” Cohan says. “At some point that’s not good anymore. Buyers and sellers have to find themselves around real prices…not morphine-drip initiated [prices].”

100 Comments

Todd T
Todd T - Thursday July 02, 2009 11:21AM EDT

If you think the fix is in for Goldmen Sachs, why don't you just buy the stock and stop crying?

Ray
Ray - Thursday July 02, 2009 11:25AM EDT

The goverment allowed these unsecured loans and the economy ran well until the collapse. The banks made money selling bad loans and AIG made money insuring loans with no way of paying off. There are no laws, no regulations, no rules, only bailout money.

lisalipps
lisalipps - Thursday July 02, 2009 11:25AM EDT

Don't worry Goldman Sachs plans to rake in huge profits from the investing and selling of carbon credits once King Obama the III's 'Cap and Tax' goes into effect.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday July 02, 2009 11:27AM EDT

THIS IS RIDICULOUS. YOU EXPECT GOLDMAN SACHS TO NOT HEDGE ITS TRADES? AND IF THEY DO, YOU EXPECT THEM NOT TO COLLECT ON THEIR INSURANCE IN CASE OF A DEFAULT? HOW IGNORANT CAN YOU BE? QUIT MUDSLINGING. THE COMPANY ONLY HELD A COUNTERPARTY TO ITS CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATION. ANY DECENTLY INTELLIGENT PERSON/INSTITUTION WOULD HAVE DONE THE SAME THING. IF NOT, SHAREHOLDERS WOULD SUE THE COMPANY FOR MISCONDUCT. WHO HERE CAN USE THEIR BRAIN?

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday July 02, 2009 11:30AM EDT

Goverment should never have got into the markets. They will lose their shirt! :D

Dentaiguy
Dentaiguy - Thursday July 02, 2009 11:36AM EDT

Sorry theepgd; you are way over complicating this. Second tier political issues : gay, immigrants, abortions. stem-cell, pale in comparison to the Iraq war manipulation. We as a conscientious society would have easily managed this economic challenge the last 8 yrs if we were not distracted. This is an obvious history lesson to come.

there
there - Thursday July 02, 2009 11:37AM EDT

This guy sounds bitter, like only his children, not others', will have to pay some kind of debt for society's mis-steps. I personally despise this line of thinking, which is becoming more prevalent.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday July 02, 2009 11:40AM EDT

Obama is causing this,no Bush did it,republians vs democrats,liberals vs neocons!!.. Excellent, divide and conquer..they will never suspect we were in control!..Rockerfeller said to Mr.Goldman..

Michael B
Michael B - Thursday July 02, 2009 11:47AM EDT

The truth behind Goldman and Paulson is exposed here: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robyn-o/goldmans-revolving-door-e_b_129103.html Make sure you click and read the Washington Post links. Paulson makes Madoff look like a small time pimp.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday July 02, 2009 11:49AM EDT

Stock market sell off and Bank runs are being planned at 4th of July tea parties....The minutemen and other patriots are not feeling "good" about their banks!!...Let the bodies hit the floor!!

Suzanne
Suzanne - Thursday July 02, 2009 11:50AM EDT

second tier political issues= diversion from theft.....every single action that has taken place benefits the wealthy, large corporations and/or pensioners....GUESS WHY?....the middle 80% have too much to lose, and too little to gamble with....so they shake their heads and go back to work. ....the abortion business was a joke (idiot)....get back to work---bees

Suzanne
Suzanne - Thursday July 02, 2009 11:56AM EDT

there is a 61,000 (yes, thousand) square foot home in town....guess who owns it? (starts with a G, ends with Sachs) ...what did he ever manufacture?....NOTHING....insider trading is very profitable when you are telling the people controlling all the people's money their next move...gotta run...happy 4th

Doctor
Doctor - Thursday July 02, 2009 11:56AM EDT

Let's look at the heads of major business and law firms. Weren't these the Ivy league group at college/universities? Pehaps rethinking hire these brillant minds, and hiring from other colleges and save money from handing out these greedy bonsus and salaries America could get rolling again. We need to change the theory of reward to reward those who acually make a profit and increase stock holder equity in the SAME moment and stop the golden parachite theory. It doesn't work and companies should tell these brillant minds to look else where. No one has a job so sacred that no one else can't do.

James
James - Thursday July 02, 2009 11:59AM EDT

thomasj3641 - Thursday July 02, 2009 10:56AM EDT THIS IS THE MOST REDICULOUS STORY THAT i HAVE READ IN AT LEAST A WEEK. AIG WON'T DEFAULT. IT HAS $27BIL AVAILABLE ON IT'S LINE OF CREDIT WITH THE US TREASURY THAT WAS SET UP SPECIFULLY TO STAND AS CASH COLLATERAL, IF IN THE EVENT IT IS NEEDED. What happens when the USdollar devalues? Gotta plan further out dude!

James
James - Thursday July 02, 2009 12:02PM EDT

stratwray - Thursday July 02, 2009 11:04AM EDT Check this month's Rolling Stone magazine for an eye opening story about Goldman Sachs, that always seems to profit under any circumstances. And yes, this financial disaster began under the Bush presidency We got that fact. Now what is the current POTUS doing about it? Term limits= vote them all out of office, even the ones you like in your state.

sewokie
sewokie - Thursday July 02, 2009 12:10PM EDT

Hey let's all make some money. BOOYAH! The government is in too deep to not prop up AIG without a lot of egg on its face---more than it has already. SOONER or later AIG will recover--with of course taxpayer help. SO wheres my stock?

粘
粘 - Thursday July 02, 2009 12:11PM EDT

Dump Goldman stock(they are ready to pay 20 billions bonus for themselves), Henry P. decision to save AIG is a big mistake at our cost, and only good for Goldman. There are many good stock around, dump Goldman to show our angry.

CE
CE - Thursday July 02, 2009 12:15PM EDT

GS is tring to make money all right, making money out of tax payers' pockets, where even not enough money left for food and living. GS just has way too more represents in gov. than tax payer do.

rsahr
rsahr - Thursday July 02, 2009 12:18PM EDT

"Omama has made things alot worse, BUT the 700 Billion Tarp money that went to Goldman Sachs and AIG came from their long lost friend PAULSON under the Bush administration. This all took place only 9 months ago. People here have short memories, get your facts straight. PAULSON got TARP pushed through with a plan. After he got the money he changed the rules on how our Tax money would be spent. (thrown away) PAULSON should be hung by the neck on Wall Street for all to see." ============================================================== Uh, as I seem to remember it, Obama was tripping all over himself to push that TARP debacle through, flying to DC prior to the debates and than touting his leadership in getting the deal done trying to look "Presidential" to the voters. He wanted to take credit for it then, but then you don't want to give him credit for it now????? Another thing, Paulson is a Democrat and GS and the Dems and Obama have been in bed all along. Obama has been paying them back for their support since before he became President.

Richard
Richard - Thursday July 02, 2009 12:22PM EDT

Will ANYONE accuse Hank Paulson of "conflict of interest"? Will anyone ever accuse GWB of "poor judgement"? Will anyone ever answer the question rergarding the repeal and non-reinstatement of "The Glass Steagel Act"? HELL NO! The politicians, regardless of party will NEVER point a finger oin their own direction. Where are the Almighty reporters when we need the truth? Same story...different day!

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