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The Dollar's Demise: Is China Signaling the Beginning of the End?

Posted Jul 08, 2009 10:51am EDT by Peter Gorenstein in Investing, Newsmakers, Recession, Banking

The G8 Summit in Aquila, Italy is underway. World leaders are gathered to discuss threats to global security, climate change, world hunger, and the global economic crisis.  But investors will be paying especially close attention to what's said about the U.S. dollar as the de facto international currency reserve. 

Charles Ortel managing director with Newport Value Partners, an independent research firm, is convinced lawmakers have already doomed the greenback.  "In the actions of our politicians of both parties - Democrats and Republicans - all you see is fiscal irresponsibility."

China and Russia have already said they want less reliance on the U.S. dollar.  Just this week, China began a new program allowing some importers and exporters to settle trade in China's currency, the yuan.  However, with $2 trillion worth of reserves, mainly in dollars, China has to walk a fine line.  Even so,  Ortel thinks we need them more than they need us.   "It’s helpful to us to have their cheap goods."

And he points out China is already diversifying away from the dollar.  "They are quietly snapping up petroleum assets, raw materials, copper, etc. They could deploy a lot of their treasuries productively and quietly without disturbing their value too much," Ortel says.

So if you can't beat 'em, might as well join 'em.  He recommends piggybacking on China's investment  strategy by buying international timber,  natural gas and petroleum.   Specifically - for investors with a 3-to-5 year time horizon - he thinks know is great time to play the energy trade, with beaten down stocks like, Devon Energy (ticker: DVN) and EOG Resources (ticker: EOG). 
 

99 Comments

Art
Art - Wednesday July 08, 2009 11:10AM EDT

The U.S. became the reserve currency by cornering the gold market when we were on a gold standard. What will be next reserve when no currency is reliably on a gold standard?

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday July 08, 2009 11:12AM EDT

Everything is all right...keep drinking the kool-aid. Just pretend that two Japanese guys did not try to sell 134 Billion US bonds under the cover of darkness. Dump the dollar if you are smart! Btw 134 Billion is like Brazils GDP...serouis stuff... Oh- ya the Treasury says they were forgeries...give me a break- the two worked for the Japanese Fin Ministry.

gakkad
gakkad - Wednesday July 08, 2009 11:14AM EDT

Well when you appoint crooks like Hank Paulson, Tax evader and Goldman Sacchs puppet Tim G as Treasury secretary, Barnie Frank, Chriss Dodd, Phil gram overseeing our fiscal policy. No wonder world is loosing their confidence in US $

Leo
Leo - Wednesday July 08, 2009 11:15AM EDT

I've already begun learning Mandarin to prepare for the inevitable communist take-over...

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday July 08, 2009 11:20AM EDT

Bush and Obama both planned to inflate our way out of entitlement debt since the baby boomer retirement bomb is about to go off. Goodbye dollar. Goodbye savings.

Jose
Jose - Wednesday July 08, 2009 11:25AM EDT

Oh poor Wall Street guru's. Thought you had it all figured out. Given the latest financial implosion resulting from Wall Street innovation can you blame the Chinese. Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase, and hedge funds still reign havoc on our commodities which explains why the Chinese are setting up oil contracts independently. There has been no real reform in the system. We are just setting up for the next Wall Street implosion which will translate into another mountain of debt as the government tries to pin things together. The Chinese and the rest of the world see it coming. Traders may be sitting on the beach in Aruba in a few years. The rest of us will be sitting on the porch eating beans.

WolfTalk101
WolfTalk101 - Wednesday July 08, 2009 11:32AM EDT

Let’s spend more money! - I like that this guy at least he blames both parties. World war 3 has begun it is not being fought with guns it’s being fought with economics and we are getting our asses handed to us… BTW republicans = slow boat to ruin… This administration = power boat to ruin. I didn’t know it was a race?

Jeff
Jeff - Wednesday July 08, 2009 11:34AM EDT

Keep Spending !!!! Its amazing to me that what got us into trouble is now considered the way out of trouble???? The current generation will HAVE to live within their means until the banks find a new way to make consumers overspend.

Lynda
Lynda - Wednesday July 08, 2009 11:41AM EDT

After only 6 months of unchecked democratic administration , the chickens are coming home to roost ! Think things are bad now , give them another 3.5 years.

Leo
Leo - Wednesday July 08, 2009 11:41AM EDT

The key phrase in this article is that China is "quietly" divesting itself of their U.S. dollar holdings. They obviously can't dump all their holdings at once b/c of what it would do to our economy, which still supports a large portion of China's manufacturing sector. This divestment will take years, but it's consequences will be no less painful to our economy, which is articially sustained only through the exportation of our massive debt. Yes, the 1000 lb. chickens will eventually come home to roost.

kerry b
kerry b - Wednesday July 08, 2009 11:42AM EDT

I'll admit that Bush and his GOP never made much effort to be fiscally responsible, but the Dems are making things a shambles in just a few months. They will increase the deficit in one year more than was done in the past decade.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday July 08, 2009 11:42AM EDT

It's not Dems or Reps, they are two sides of the same evil coin. This whole thing was a set up to destroy our economy and made us a 3rd world slave nation. Time to abolish the Fed Reserve, it is a crime syndicate. Congress was the one who was suppose to be in charge or printing money, read the constitution.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday July 08, 2009 11:42AM EDT

I hate to loose. Everyone is loosing. Learn how to spell you morons!

istartedi
istartedi - Wednesday July 08, 2009 11:42AM EDT

We don't need China's products. Raise your hand if you're a consumer and you've bought something that broke in a month. The only reason those shoddy goods were in our stores is because the Chinese currency was artificially debased. Don't immitate the Chinese. Let the dollar stay down for a while, so that US manufacturing can come back. It's not dead--it's just sleeping. US workers still make great products. We make some of the best cars in the world--in the South, under foreign management. Once todayh's US consumers go to Target and buy a US made blender that holds together the way my Mom's Osterizer did, they'll wonder why we ever bothered to trade with China.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday July 08, 2009 11:42AM EDT

It's not Dems or Reps, they are two sides of the same evil coin. This whole thing was a set up to destroy our economy and made us a 3rd world slave nation. Time to abolish the Fed Reserve, it is a crime syndicate. Congress was the one who was suppose to be in charge or printing money, read the constitution.

Phil
Phil - Wednesday July 08, 2009 11:45AM EDT

Since 40% - 50% of China's bank loans are estimated to be insolvent and Russia's only product is oil and gas (when was the last time you saw anything labeled Made in Russia?), exactly what alternative are they offering? We're suffering, but we are still in better shape than everybody else. Then of course there's the 144 people killed by the Chinese government this week, the attack on a sovereign country by Russia last year, them cutting off gas to the EU last year..... how stupid are these people?

Jason
Jason - Wednesday July 08, 2009 11:46AM EDT

So what can we do? What can the "average Joe" do? When, exactly, did we lose our government? Is it too late to get it back?

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday July 08, 2009 11:48AM EDT

China now relies on dirty coal as major energy source. China will devote to solar and other cleaner energy with allocated stimulus funds. Fund managers know that so they are downgrading China solar stocks such as YGE to collect more at lower cost.

patrick p
patrick p - Wednesday July 08, 2009 11:50AM EDT

Quote [Keep Spending !!!! Its amazing to me that what got us into trouble is now considered the way out of trouble???? The current generation will HAVE to live within their means until the banks find a new way to make consumers overspend.] I really don't think any of them give it much thought. I believe the only thing politicians know how to do is, Spend other people money. So, what other solution do they have?

HELLO
HELLO - Wednesday July 08, 2009 11:52AM EDT

The spending issue of the American consumer is directly correlated to the overcompensation and under taxation of the ULTRA Rich. I am a capitalist but it is time we give the middle class the trillions stolen from rich morons.

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