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The Dollar's Demise: Is China Signaling the Beginning of the End?

Posted Jul 08, 2009 10:51am EDT by Peter Gorenstein in Investing, Newsmakers, Recession, Banking

The G8 Summit in Aquila, Italy is underway. World leaders are gathered to discuss threats to global security, climate change, world hunger, and the global economic crisis.  But investors will be paying especially close attention to what's said about the U.S. dollar as the de facto international currency reserve. 

Charles Ortel managing director with Newport Value Partners, an independent research firm, is convinced lawmakers have already doomed the greenback.  "In the actions of our politicians of both parties - Democrats and Republicans - all you see is fiscal irresponsibility."

China and Russia have already said they want less reliance on the U.S. dollar.  Just this week, China began a new program allowing some importers and exporters to settle trade in China's currency, the yuan.  However, with $2 trillion worth of reserves, mainly in dollars, China has to walk a fine line.  Even so,  Ortel thinks we need them more than they need us.   "It’s helpful to us to have their cheap goods."

And he points out China is already diversifying away from the dollar.  "They are quietly snapping up petroleum assets, raw materials, copper, etc. They could deploy a lot of their treasuries productively and quietly without disturbing their value too much," Ortel says.

So if you can't beat 'em, might as well join 'em.  He recommends piggybacking on China's investment  strategy by buying international timber,  natural gas and petroleum.   Specifically - for investors with a 3-to-5 year time horizon - he thinks know is great time to play the energy trade, with beaten down stocks like, Devon Energy (ticker: DVN) and EOG Resources (ticker: EOG). 
 

98 Comments

Devin J
Devin J - Wednesday July 08, 2009 11:52AM EDT

Ortel is right... neither Bush or Obama have had the guts to let the companies fail that should have. Too much involvement from the government. The U.S. dollar will never recover and has lost its appeal to all wise investors

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday July 08, 2009 11:53AM EDT

This is peter schiff's snake oil in different packaging. WE have deflation, the dollar is still on top for a long while. I don't buy it. Oh have you seen the price of gold lately $910, lol. Do people forget Gas is almost half what it was last year. Be careful out there, people are looking to take what you got (cash) it's in short supply.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday July 08, 2009 11:54AM EDT

PUT YOUR FAITH IN CHRIST. MONEY, NO MONEY. GOOD OR BAD GOVERNMENT. OBAMA, WHOEVER AS PRESIDENT. NONE OF THEM WILL HELP YOU IN THE AFTER LIFE. I PRAY FOR THIS NATION AND WORLD AS IT NEARS THE END!!!

AndrewJ5267
AndrewJ5267 - Wednesday July 08, 2009 11:54AM EDT

China realizes that economies have a direct dependency on energy. This is why the majority of solar and battery companies are Chinese ... China is looking to become a major source of energy to the world. The US Dollar will NOT go away; rather, the Chinese Yuan will become an alternate to the US Dollar, meaning there will become a competition between the 2 currencies ... talk about capitalism at its finest!

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday July 08, 2009 11:54AM EDT

Talking about energy, China government has been promoting solar and wind. Every week there is government articles explaining policy. Looks like FSLR from U.S. is also trying but hard to enter China. From U.S. only SOLR is expanding there.

Allen
Allen - Wednesday July 08, 2009 11:56AM EDT

Two roads diverged in a yellow wood, And sorry I could not travel both And be one traveler, long I stood And looked down one as far as I could To where it bent in the undergrowth; Then took the other, as just as fair, And having perhaps the better claim Because it was grassy and wanted wear, Though as for that the passing there Had worn them really about the same, And both that morning equally lay In leaves no step had trodden black. Oh, I marked the first for another day! Yet knowing how way leads on to way I doubted if I should ever come back. I shall be telling this with a sigh Somewhere ages and ages hence: Two roads diverged in a wood, and I, I took the one less traveled by, And that has made all the difference.

E
E - Wednesday July 08, 2009 12:01PM EDT

This "reserve currency" is a joke. What does the world need a "reserve currency" for anyway? The dollar doesn't need to prop up the world. My feeling is that the USA needs to return to agriculture since manufacturing is long gone. Once we get back to feeding our own people, we will be in a better place. Send kids to ag college to learn new farming methods. We need to return to agriculture.

Akmed the Dead Terrorist
Akmed the Dead Terrorist - Wednesday July 08, 2009 12:03PM EDT

Take a chill pill. The Chineese and anyone stupid enough to lend us money has the MOST to lose and they know it. And its only money. We have knowledge which they are trying to equal. What's wrong with ANY econmomy is the ability to BORROW money and transactions that don't involve cash only. Loans should be outlawed. The reason inflation exists is because money is easy to get. Without loans, you would see what things really are worth. Doctors would be paid what people could actually afford and houses would be in a price range that only those who saved up their money could pay for. No more derivative contracts and funny money transactions should be allowed. That way you remove any doubt and confussion from your economy. Only cash should be allowed for any type of transaction in this country. NO MORE LOANS OR FUNNY MONEY TRANSACTIONS! That would straighten out our banking system and our government from overspending. Lesson learned... You don't get services or goods if you don't got it. Bernie Madoff wouldn't be in jail if he had to do his business in cash.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday July 08, 2009 12:04PM EDT

Anyone ever read The Time Machine?

Cat_in_a_bank
Cat_in_a_bank - Wednesday July 08, 2009 12:08PM EDT

USA were living out of real world for decades. Tons of money printed in US were dissolving in eastern world, but they were not disappearing. Crash of USSR helped dramatically as huge economy just sucked trillions of dollars when local barons were preparing expropriation of peoples’ wealth through distraction of local currency. At some point the economical space would be saturated and overheated demand will fire back, and all those money will be thrown back to issuer. Republican’s Cowboy politic ensured that pressure is high enough through quick cash hunting outsourcing and military gambling. Current government just ensure that damage will be maximised through redirecting resources from building functional structure on still sound elements to creation of localized shelters for primary guilty party.

wobatus
wobatus - Wednesday July 08, 2009 12:08PM EDT

Hmm, I guess that's why all commodities are way down in dollar denomination today and have ben plunging. Pundits are idiots.

Jeff B
Jeff B - Wednesday July 08, 2009 12:09PM EDT

Ha, ha! You don't have to prepare for the Comunist takeover, you already voted it in last November you idiots. I am safely in China, where free market capitalism is growing stronger every day! You are in the Socialist States of Amerika, where the government is illegaly seizing every major bank and business it can get it's hands on.Obama must have learned this trick from Putnin and Chavez!

AndrewH
AndrewH - Wednesday July 08, 2009 12:09PM EDT

I think this Ortel guy has a an agenda... everyone does. His bit on China is his hope. How much of the cheap junk could we and should we do without? I get along fine without WalMart and buy American or Western every chance I get. Just picked up a Neuton battery lawn mower... made in the USA! If the media would pull their heads out of their a%$#s and use their influence in a positive way to get people off the China needle that would be a huge step in the right direction. I for one would welcome more expensive, but locally or USA made goods... I could just buy less of them... like anyone here needs even 50% of what they have. The USA is far from being defeated. We need a massive change in the way we think, live and act. Is that not what we as a nation voted for? I am not talking about socialism, when Americans voted for Obama we were not asking for socialism, but a change.

plang
plang - Wednesday July 08, 2009 12:10PM EDT

15 months of recession and now over 6 more in a depression.REAL unemployment near 20%rising forclosures,bankruptcys the US is running a madoff style ponzi scheme to pay its bills.china,russia and india have huge amounts of money invested in US dollars and are worried about losing them...

Ben
Ben - Wednesday July 08, 2009 12:13PM EDT

The plan is to destroy the value of the dollar and have us all begging for a new currency that is worth somthing. Hello world currency, goodbye dollar. This is all part of our own gov't's plan to destroy the last great democracy in the world in order to bring in the one world gov't. Wake up people! It is time to put an end to this insanity and take back our country before it is too late. The truth is, you can't trust the Dems or the Republicans....both parties work for the bankers! The giant banks run our country and the world. They will take away our guns, our freedom, our dollar, and eventually our lives if we don't join the movement.

t
t - Wednesday July 08, 2009 12:14PM EDT

buy up commodities

Art
Art - Wednesday July 08, 2009 12:23PM EDT

The Chinese are using coal to produce windmills solar pannels and cheap cars to sell to fools dumb enough to think the world is warming when we are moving into a period of global cooling.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday July 08, 2009 12:14PM EDT

The government will kill itself and it will fail under its own weight. Just prepare the best you can for YOU AND YOUR FAMILY. The dollar will fail and it is not what you want to be holding. HARD ASSETS can be converted into MANY forms for barter (fiat currencies, hard metal monies or direct trade). The next 3 years are going to bring planetary change in a major way. GET OUT OF THE DOLLAR. You have been warned. Trust your gut feeling, you are smarter then you even know.

Ray
Ray - Wednesday July 08, 2009 12:26PM EDT

People buy all kinds of things let the chinese buy trees. The future is in technology. If you look at history technology has always been the winner. We need to invest in america.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday July 08, 2009 12:15PM EDT

China's whole economic well-being is sustained by the exports, and the U.S. absorbs more than half of them. There is no way we will pay for the Chinese junk with anything other than USD, so no matter how much they whine, they will continue to support the dollar.

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