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Budget Crisis "Embarrassing," But Businesses Aren't Fleeing California, Economist Says

Posted Jul 09, 2009 07:00am EDT by Aaron Task
The budget crisis is "embarrassing" and California faces some "incredible threats," says Stephen Levy, director of the Center for the Continuing Study of the California Economy (CCSCE) in Palo Alto. But the perception that businesses and residents are fleeing the state is not supported by the facts.

The number of businesses leaving California is "negligible," Levy says, citing a recent study by the Public Policy Institute of California.

California did suffer a small exodus of residents in 2004-2007, but Levy says that's because housing prices 2.5-to-3 times above the national average gave homeowners an opportunity to cash out - and discouraged others from coming to the state.

"It doesn't make sense they were leaving for job reasons" because California's job growth during the housing boom was above the national average, he adds.

But the state today does have "severe investment challenges in education, infrastructure," posing a threat to its long-term economic competitiveness, the economist says - which brings us back to the state's budget impasse and speculation higher taxes may be coming down the pike.

In February, California's legislature passed about $11 billion in temporary tax increases and more may be on the way.

But the "taxes point is way overblown," Levy says, noting many other states are in the same boat and that businesses want "great communities, great schools, and great infrastructure" in order to attract skilled workers.

"But you have to pay for it," he says, suggesting a 1% increase in tax is a "very small" price for major corporations like Google, H-P and our parent Yahoo! to pay to help California live up to its potential as a great place to live and work.

218 Comments

JARAA
JARAA - Thursday July 09, 2009 07:17AM EDT

record vacancies and business closures. more B.S. spin to make things allright. California is horrible, and will get worse. payroll taxes, etc over $20,000 per year for a 2 man business... not to mention state taxes pushing 10% now. its so poorly managed, and the illegals keep on coming, to drive up consumer costs even more.

Jeff
Jeff - Thursday July 09, 2009 07:22AM EDT

Johnny, seriously, you need help. And I'm not just talking about your spelling and grammar.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday July 09, 2009 07:30AM EDT

If higher/more taxes were really the answer we would still be part of the British Empire. Beware New Deal/Great Society revisionists.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday July 09, 2009 07:30AM EDT

If higher/more taxes were really the answer we would still be part of the British Empire. Beware New Deal/Great Society revisionists.

JARAA
JARAA - Thursday July 09, 2009 07:32AM EDT

RE: Johnny Ike . AGREE. its the inland areas and the speculation that kills the comparables and declines the quality of the neighborhoods. no jobs, so soon all unemployed renters, lol. haven't paid rent in 3 months, because they know the courts are clogged with credit card defaults and forclosures. its so screwed up, its funny. the lower tier businesses, like thrift shops, auto parts, and big lots etc should do fine though... whatever caters to the growing hispanic communities. the quality of

Phyllis
Phyllis - Thursday July 09, 2009 07:41AM EDT

California is like the canary in the coal mine. Wherever it goes the country follows. So tighten your seatbelts, the country is in for a bumpy ride until 2022.

eric
eric - Thursday July 09, 2009 07:46AM EDT

Large migration from California to Tx. Have sold real eatate to many who cashed out and now can buy 2-3 times the property in Texas than California. Also no state income tax in Tx and much less strangling gov. regulation. They are not going back

Surf
Surf - Thursday July 09, 2009 07:50AM EDT

I think this is great.

Brian
Brian - Thursday July 09, 2009 08:00AM EDT

California has always been volatile though. We had this same conversation right after the .com bust. When the recovery comes California will just jump twice as fast as the rest of the country.

James
James - Thursday July 09, 2009 08:05AM EDT

The State is bankrupt. If I as an individual started writing checks and not post dating I would be arrested for KITING. The bond rating companies again prove they have zero credibility. It would be hard at this juncture to not keep the ratings on States above garbage when they rated the MBS and CDO's grade A so our great financial institutions could fleece the world with the assistance of the FRC. What a joke. Default the banks and the States until they reorganize in bankruptcy like the rest of us have too. Better yet, don't let them raise taxes until they they cut spending by 20%. If this means masses of State employees must now share the paid with the private sector, so be it! I'm just wondering what scam the US will use to justify more massive borrowing. Will it be a war, terrorism, food shortages, or disease. Our monetary system is broken and can only be corrected by changing every lackie in government

harshing_my_mellow
harshing_my_mellow - Thursday July 09, 2009 08:05AM EDT

16 States have "accepted" Stimulus funds to keep their States solvent until budget issues can be resolved. Tax revenues are down because of the significant job loses and subsequent real estate situation. Many people want to associate job statistics as some kind of "lagging indicator" but choose to put things into perspective. If people are not working, spending is kept to essentials only, mortgage defaults increase, and tax revenues drop precipitously. If States reduce services to balance their budgets, would that mean less? Less would then equate to more job losses which would also reduce the tax revenues which would also mean worse all around? With $500B in Stimulus money "yet to be spent", even when the Stimulus Package specifically stated any where from 1 to 3.5 MM jobs will be created and/or saved, I am concerned that political intrigue has usurped the welfare of the working person. In is incredulous how politicians use the middleclass as pawns in their effort to enrich their ego and their wallet. Why does the middleclass continue to vote these politicians into office?

taopraxis
taopraxis - Thursday July 09, 2009 08:28AM EDT

Watching government at all levels borrow, spend, tax, regulate, print money, and lie to the people even while the worst depression in history continues to deepen is like watching a junkie commit slow suicide.

Gregg
Gregg - Thursday July 09, 2009 08:29AM EDT

Yeah he is right there are more people moving into CA then moving out. It's Called mexican illegal immigration!! Yes Im moving out of this state. Why stay?

OLD GUY FROM ILLINOIS
OLD GUY FROM ILLINOIS - Thursday July 09, 2009 08:39AM EDT

harshing_my_mellow@rocketmail.com - Thursday July 09, 2009 08:05AM EDT.....""""Why does the middleclass continue to vote these politicians into office?"""----------------------Good point Harshing......I think it is because we have been so manipulated and brain-washed over so many years to believe that the Two-Party system is the only one that will work in America...........I say Bull Crap!.....The 2 Party system has failed us miserably.......You and I and millions of us are worse off now than we were 10 years ago........Also, our children will be the first in 3 generations to NOT BE BETTER OFF than their parents..........................It's time to kick out all incumbents in office and to think "Real Change" in a third party candidate. These morons who " lead " the country are interested in one thing only.......Getting Reelected term after term after term........

harshing_my_mellow
harshing_my_mellow - Thursday July 09, 2009 08:40AM EDT

Imagine the burden carried by the State of California? Interestingly enough, you probably have the highest concentration of environmentalists, probably the highest concentration of actors, probably the highest concentration of progressive thinkers, home to people like Laura D'Andrea Tyson and other FDR New Deal Economists, huge agricultural concerns, Silicon Valley, Barbara Boxer, Nancy Pelosi, Henry Waxman... a State buget that is greater than many countries ... and they are, well, dying on the vine?? One would want to believe with all that intellect, with all that wealth, with all that potential, they would have figured out how to make it work??? Golly.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday July 09, 2009 08:42AM EDT

Johnny has taken a brief respite. He will return to his usual jovial self once the bottle is emptied. Please stay tuned.

lisalipps
lisalipps - Thursday July 09, 2009 08:43AM EDT

No crap. Where else can they flee to. The rest of the country will end up like California once King Obama the III imposes all of his huge tax increases.

Donald
Donald - Thursday July 09, 2009 08:49AM EDT

California, the home state of Pelosi, Boxer, Feinstein, and a long list of left-wing Democrats in the House. A state dominated by Latino's and millions of illegal aliens, and public "service" unions, all of whom are pandered to by the Democrats. The result, a total collapse of the State of California. Over run with crime, it is interesting that one of the three largest State expenses is incarseration of criminals, a HUGE percentage of which are illegal aliens. So pathetic is the situation that California can't even deport the criminal aliens, knowing that they will just sneak back across the border in a matter of days. It all says so very much about the "progressive", left-wing Democrats, and what they do to a society. Now they're running the whole country. As someone mentioned, as California goes, so goes the country.

Gerald C Huth
Gerald C Huth - Thursday July 09, 2009 08:52AM EDT

We are leaving next week. It is way too risky to think about long term financial stability in California. Taxes are insane, jobs are shaky, real estate is still way over priced. There are taxes embedded in everything you do here making the cost of living so much more than other states in the west. If a person who works all of their life in California could take the money they pay into the welfare system and put it into a 401k instead they could retire on the money without ever saving another dime.

Whamo
Whamo - Thursday July 09, 2009 08:53AM EDT

California, here I come, right back where I started from. California is a beautiful place. It's got beaches, mountains, and the desert. It's got red skies, blue skies, and fluffy white clouds. All things must pass, as will this economic downturn. I'll never leave. My bones will be buried in this ground.

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