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The CFTC Can't Stop Wild Commodity Speculation Alone

Posted Jul 09, 2009 11:12am EDT by Richard Bernstein in Investing, Products and Trends, Commodities

From The Business Insider, July 9, 2009:

I loudly applaud the CFTC’s efforts to tighten commodity trading regulations, but I think that Washington still doesn’t fully understand the root cause of today’s speculative commodity and financial markets. 

It’s not about position limits.  It’s about credit flowing to financial speculation instead of toward productive use.

It is difficult for any oversight agency to try to maintain fair markets so long as there are easily accessible opaque trading avenues.  As opposed to the text book “speculator” who openly declares him or herself as such, today’s hedge funds are masters of circumventing required transparency.

Commodity speculators have and will easily get around CFTC reporting requirements because the CFTC only oversees the public commodity markets.  Washington doesn’t seem to realize that the non-public markets might actually be a bigger haven for speculators.

Here is a rather dramatic example. 

The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) provides data on commodity-related swaps and derivatives positions on global bank balance sheets.  Over the past several years, the value of these swaps ballooned to historic levels as the bull market in commodities matured.

One might suggest that the growth in these over-the-counter (OTC) commodity contracts was simply a reflection of extraordinary global growth and “de-coupling” (no one, of course, would mention the extraordinary growth of the hedge fund industry!).  Unfortunately, the data do not support that the growth in OTC commodity-related derivatives was caused by anything related to fundamentals.

Historically, the notional values of these commodity-related bank balances were equal to about 40-50% of the total sales of all publicly traded materials and energy companies in the world.  However, during 2007/2008’s exponential increase in commodity prices, commodity-related bank balances rose to over 200% of total global commodity-related sales.  If one hedges more than one uses, then one is, by definition, speculating.  Keep in mind that these data only account for OTC commodity derivatives on bank balance sheets, and do not include any exchange traded instruments.

These data raise a couple of questions germane to the recent CFTC announcement:

First, why aren’t the Fed and the Treasury Department involved in the discussions about commodity-related transactions?  These BIS data reflect positions on global bank balance sheets.  Anyone want to bet whether some folks in Washington might be somewhat upset if they found out the bank holding companies that just received TARP funds were entering into swap agreements that caused the price of oil to increase?

Second, won’t the CFTC’s proposals simply push more trading to the opaque swaps market?  If a hedge fund enters into a swap agreement with a bank, and the bank hedges that exposure on an exchange, the bank correctly lists itself as a “commercial” (i.e., non-speculator/non-hedge fund) user of the commodity markets.  If a hedge fund traded directly on the exchange, then it would have to list as a “non-commercial” (i.e., speculator).  Thus, setting tighter position limits on exchanges might have a negligible effect on curtailing commodity speculation because speculators could still potentially circumvent the more stringent requirements by using the OTC markets.

Washington seems to be going about this the wrong way.  Excess credit fuels speculation.  We had the biggest credit bubble of our lifetimes, and eventually saw a huge commodity bubble.

There should be no witch hunt for evil speculators.  Speculation is a necessary part of any financial market.  One has to admit though that the extreme speculation associated with this decade’s “bubble” environment was not healthy for the overall economy.  Bubbles and excess speculation cause tremendous misallocation of economic resources.

Washington should make sure that if credit is going to flow again, then it flows towards productive use in the real economy, and not into commodity and financial market speculation.  The CFTC should be applauded for its efforts however fruitless they may ultimately be, but Washington as a whole still needs to better understand the insidious link between credit and speculation.


Richard Bernstein is CEO of Richard Bernstein Capital Management.  He was previously the Chief Investment Strategist and Head of the Investment Strategy Group at Merrill Lynch.  He has written two books on investing: Navigate The Noise: Investing In The New Age Of Media And Hype and Style Investing: Unique Insight Into Equity Management.

More coverage from The Business Insider:

 

37 Comments

you
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday July 09, 2009 11:44AM EDT

Those money/blood suckers fool everyone about the fairy tale that capital can create new value by itself. Is that true? Without productive process, where does new value come from? Do you believe that a pile of money simple flowing among financial tycoons can increase value? No! We need much tighter regulation not only on CFTC, but all other financial markets. They have cheated U.S. for 20 years. We should stop those cheaters and go back to the right path.

you
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday July 09, 2009 12:05PM EDT

this is another timely piece. Now manipulation has overtaken the green shoots as the focal point. You see, green shoots are nothing without the manipulation. We have defeated the green shoots, we have ridiculed the inflation notion. Now, we are focusing on the closest layer to the core of the "onion ". The core is our Federal Reserve, the mother of all cheating. The next layer is the GS, the hit man. GS must be abolished like the Fed. The money moving business has absolutely zero value to our economy and civilization. Please keep the subject for a while as we will dissect the GS. This is huge. Market manipulation in such a magnitude is huge. It will overshadow the "Water Gate" as the single biggest scandal both politically and financially. Stay tuned as pressure is building up. There is no way out. The exit door has been closed. One can almost feel it. All it takes is a small opening.

you
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday July 09, 2009 12:09PM EDT

Regulation should be imposed is upon the federal reserve and federal government. Without their creation of excess credit, this nonsense wouldn't happen. Why applaud regulators for making nonsensical, ineffective regulation?

jimmy
jimmy - Thursday July 09, 2009 12:13PM EDT

One thing that I would like to see at least on the oil markets is to make sure that anyone who buys a oil futures contract has to be able to take possession of the oil. In other words that trader needs to have a great big oil tank to store his contract in. Overnight you would lose 75-80% of all of the speculators in the market. The market would quickly return to the fundamentals supply and demand. For a while there would be a big drop in prices and a steady increase until stasis was established. This would help everyone as this incredible volatility has hurt almost every industry and person except the speculators. Four dollar gas and five dollar diesel last summer combined with the stock collapse and really whacked the economy just when it didn't need it.

nick
nick - Thursday July 09, 2009 12:17PM EDT

Just change the margin requirements, up them to 50% That will knock out more then half of the speculators. But the big guys will always be able to play the game.

you
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday July 09, 2009 12:26PM EDT

This is another timely piece. Now manipulation has overtaken the green shoots as the focal point. You see, green shoots are nothing without the manipulation. We have defeated the green shoots, we have ridiculed the inflation notion. Now, we are focusing on the closest layer to the core of the "onion ". The core is our Federal Reserve, the mother of all cheating. The next layer is the GS, the hit man. GS must be abolished like the Fed. The money moving business has absolutely zero value to our economy and civilization. Please keep the subject for a while as we will dissect the GS. This is huge. Market manipulation in such a magnitude is huge. It will overshadow the "Watergate" as the single biggest scandal both politically and financially. Stay tuned as pressure is building up. There is no way out. The exit door has been closed. One can almost feel it. All it takes is a small opening. By the way, is the civil rights lawyer turned politician a natural born US citizen? Where is the original birth certificate with a seal on it? Is live birth certificate same as the Birth Certificate? Where are the school records? Why seal the records? Why not answer this question straightforward? Why spent almost a million to NOT answer this simple question ? These two are seemingly unrelated subjects. But they reflect a certain ethical and legal standard we have in our nation at this point in history. I am certain we will see more than just an economic melt down.

Ray
Ray - Thursday July 09, 2009 12:46PM EDT

Pork will move to the up side on the futures market.

dano
dano - Thursday July 09, 2009 12:56PM EDT

Just raise the margin requirements from what they are presently. This will cut down speculation and will make people cut their risk automatically. Hedge funds may try to circumvent this, but the bank which sets up the hedge or whomever goes into the public markets will have to cover that extra margin and so it will be priced into the deal.

you
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday July 09, 2009 01:03PM EDT

It is amazing Bernstein has totally missed the role of the U.S. dollar in what is going on in the commodity markets. Are the speculators devaluing the dollar or is it the U.S. government that is engaging in quatitative easing and running a $1.8 trillion dollar budget deficit this year alone? All commodities are priced in U.S. dollars. If the worth of the dollar declines commodity prices go up. If the U.S. government manipulates the dollar market, commodity prices are effected. Speculators have always been blamed for inflation througout history, whereas it is always the government that is at fault by creating more currency that the economy can handle. Governments NEVER blame themselves for creating inflation however. They always find scapegoats and speculators are at the top of the list. Price controls are next on the agenda and that is what the CTFC is trying to institute. History shows they never work, but only make matters worse. -Organizer, New York Investing meetup (http://investing.meetup.com/21)

you
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday July 09, 2009 01:15PM EDT

No. manipulation is WAY more than a margin requirement, which is highly necessary nevertheless. Manipulation ultimately is to influence the market in a way that is not market driven. It is about the power, the undue power or the power of abuse. We have a "game" where everyone is cheating, i.e. the players, the coaches and the referees. If everybody is cheating, does anybody cheat?? Or Who is to judge the judges? Who is to regulate the regulators? We have a "systemic corruption" followed by a "systemic outrage" and then by a "systemic upheaval". ****************************** We are being tested. The score shows up in the market EVERYDAY. "I am a firm believer in the people. If given the truth, they can be depended upon to meet any national crisis. The great point is to bring them the real facts." —Abraham Lincoln, 1860s

Ray Fun Relax
Ray Fun Relax - Thursday July 09, 2009 01:22PM EDT

Get rid of Capitalism, free markets, and open-free trade. Replace it with Socialism, Communism & Police State.

you
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday July 09, 2009 01:22PM EDT

Turtle Trader sucks donkeys. Stop posting your stupid spam on every Short Ticker article. I wish the North Koreans would target your stupid website for an attack!

richard
richard - Thursday July 09, 2009 01:24PM EDT

It is relatively simple to fix speculation in commodity markets. You simply require that anyone buying futures, who is not in the direct line of production, put down 100% of the cost of those commodities. This whole problem was created in the late 90s and the first years of Bush by changes in regulations that allowed non-production folks to invest in commodity futures on the same basis as production users. For example, if you are a refinery you need to secure a certain amount of oil coming to your business for the next 6 months to a year. You are allowed to purchase that crude oil for 10% of it value, locking in the price and securing the asset. With the changes to the regulatory scheme, speculators were allowed to do the same thing. What happened, gamblers began betting on the changing price of commodities and they only had to put down 10% or less of the funds to make the bet. They quickly realized they could jack up the prices by buying up futures at higher and higher prices with minimal amounts of money, thus guaranteeing huge profits. This is what caused the last oil bubble. This is also where our bail out money is going. Instead of loaning out money at 5.5% for mortgages or business loans, the bankers are diverting the money to manipulate the commodities market. This can be changed, but it will take some real guts by our Congress in putting in regulations that prohibit this type of speculative trading.

Dane
Dane - Thursday July 09, 2009 01:49PM EDT

It's called London ICE, the dark market without transparency, set up around 1999 by Goldman and others, where otc derivatives, futures and other commodity prices are set each day under darkness by the world's biggest players, and yes that includes US banks and financials. The CFTC has'nt any jurisdiction here, they oversee the New York Mercantile Exchange. Currently with few good growth prospects, speculation fueled by pump and dump seems to be the order of the day.

you
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday July 09, 2009 02:03PM EDT

"This whole problem was created in the late 90s and the first years of Bush by changes in regulations that allowed non-production folks to invest in commodity futures on the same basis as production users." This is a good example of corruption. The Wall Street is unduly powerful. They have infiltrated our government in a profound way. You see, you can 100% trace these policy changes to special interest lobbying. That is why any financial regulation proposed by Larry Summers/ Hussein Obama/Timmy is a joke. Wall Street has to be downsized by at least 80%. Lobbying/Campaign finance is the ultimate contempt of democracy. Our current "Hussein team" has not done a thing so far. That will change soon. You either change yourself or people will do that for you. When the latter happens late this year, YOU will not be on the people's side. I have no doubt in my mind, there will be severe consequences of the failed governing sooner than later. This is called "we change the false changer who promised but not delivered a change." I will say this again, the man is not a real deal.

you
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday July 09, 2009 02:06PM EDT

Strange that only a while ago the regulators, CFTC included were vehement about the fact that the high crude prices have NOTHING to do with speculation... and NOW they say it is absolutely important to curtail speculation!! Is that so, or were they lying back then? If they were telling us lies, they have to be held accountable!! Or are the GS, MS and other big players so influential that they have even gotten the regulators to talk for them?? Seems like everyone is free to say anything and can get away with it!!

Paul
Paul - Thursday July 09, 2009 03:18PM EDT

The reason credit is flowing to speculation is because that is exactly what policy makers want to happen. This is the back door recapitalization that has been engineered by the federal reserve and the treasury department over several administrations, both republican and democratic. Of course, if one were to ask the CFTC you would hear that trading by major financial institutions does not constitute speculation. Go figure. Sounds like a trading platform at Goldman Sachs that can manipulate markets is only bad when someone other than Goldman Sachs is running the program and its trades. At least according to the United States Attorney's Office for the Southern district of New York.

you
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday July 09, 2009 03:58PM EDT

"The reason credit is flowing to speculation is because that is exactly what policy makers want to happen." I agree. It is called Dash for Cash. The "RALLY" on all assets classes coincided with the bank recap. ****** History will judge this period harshly. Tim Guietner was out of spotlight for 2-3 weeks before the "Rally". He was seen hanging out with Robert Rubin, who has not been talked about so far. I would not be surprised his name will surface quite a bit. This is a well-orchestrated series of events and maneuvers, from Green Shoots to Happy Talk media, from TARP to market manipulation, from the Stress Test to bank capital raising. Make no mistake about that. There is nothing RANDOM about these. It will overshadow the "Watergate" as the single biggest scandal both politically and financially

charles.torre
charles.torre - Thursday July 09, 2009 04:17PM EDT

The best way to stop anything is to tax it heavily. Tax the speculative gains and don't allow the losses.

RENER
RENER - Thursday July 09, 2009 04:22PM EDT

Great , good wishes !! Why dont they begin with gold and silver manipulation ??

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