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S&P to Hit 1050 by Fall: Strategist Sees a Rally in Market "Rorschach Test"

Posted Jul 14, 2009 05:16pm EDT by Aaron Task in Investing
Perspective is reality, and that's especially true of the stock market where two people can look at the exact same chart and come to diametrically opposed conclusions.

Lately, (nearly) every trader is looking at the S&P 500's chart and seeing a head and shoulders pattern, which consists a left shoulder (peak one), the head (a higher peak), the right shoulder (lower peak), and the neckline (connecting the two "shoulders"). The neckline must be "broken" in order for the pattern to be complete.

"It's the mother of all Rorschach tests - you see what you want to see," says Vinny Catalano, president and global investment strategist with Blue Marble Research.

Indeed, some are saying the pattern is signaling a coming breakout rally, while others are declaring it a sign of a pending breakdown.

What Catalano sees is the bearish head and shoulders pattern - triggered by a break below S&P 880 on heavy volume - is based on a shorter time frame than the bullish view, which is triggered by a break above 950.

In other words, he's making a bullish bet the market will break out to the upside - and hit 1050 by fall - rather than break down.

While not a technician by trade, Catalano says he pays attention to chart patterns for "the simple fact that many others pay attention to chart patterns, which then moves chart pattern analyses to the behavioral science realm - the study of your fellow investment rats and how they run the maze."

 

80 Comments

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday July 14, 2009 07:58PM EDT

Don't trust any words from chart masters. They make money by selling no-one-can-understand stock charts, not by stock investment.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday July 14, 2009 08:04PM EDT

It is all a bunch of BS. Hide your money under the matress!!!

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday July 14, 2009 08:12PM EDT

He seems to be a permabull going by his blog. http://vinnycatalano.blogspot.com/ Likewise for a lot of the people who are very bearish over the last two months. If they posted articles or blogs back then, a lot of them were bearish in 2003 and 2004 after the market had already bottomed.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday July 14, 2009 08:16PM EDT

Kudos to the poster saying DEPRESSION. This is a full blown DEPRESSION. Is ANYONE getting banks to loan to them?

Jon M
Jon M - Tuesday July 14, 2009 08:25PM EDT

I was wondering, with so many people without jobs, how is this good for the market to go up. As soon as the weekly unemployment paychecks stop, we are going to see some real hurt here. Where are the replacement jobs going to come from? The answer to that will make a market rise, all other number manipulations will fail.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday July 14, 2009 08:35PM EDT

So far only 50 million has gone into the new energy grid. The government has spend more millions on pomp on selecting the new Surpreme Court Judge than they will have so far invested in Green jobs. GM billions wasted, the banks billions wasted on a few. But only fourty or fifty million so far pledged by the government for green energy jobs. What a farse. I see a new Bush.

Jed
Jed - Tuesday July 14, 2009 09:12PM EDT

Is the S&P an Asian stock market now? NASTYDAQ is. All the INTC hype. It is still making money because it is so off-shored and out-sourced, it employs very few Americans. Its earnings beat low-ball estimates because the Dollar was stronger than expected.

shags1_23
shags1_23 - Tuesday July 14, 2009 09:32PM EDT

Real Deal - Tuesday July 14, 2009 05:25PM EDT First woo hoo! ============================================== First what? And why would it matter?

shags1_23
shags1_23 - Tuesday July 14, 2009 09:42PM EDT

MegaBull and MegaBear. I love it. Keep the names coming, Aaron.

Pale Rider
Pale Rider - Tuesday July 14, 2009 09:53PM EDT

The issue ultimately will be profits today combined with profit expectations for the future. Will the PE ratios be high, fair, or low? Given what has happened in the economy worldwide I would expect that PE ratios will be fair to low unless the economy here and elsewhere starts to show a real sustainable turnaround with multiple identifiable drivers. I expect the profit picture to ultimately stagnate once things settle out over the next couple of quarters due to fewer gains attributable to massive expense cutting and inventory declines. Doubt we are long term going up--more likely sideways that suggests to me stocks are a bad bet.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday July 14, 2009 10:06PM EDT

Hey Einstein (subysti_389)...posts that show up as Yahoo! Finance User are people who choose not to reveal their real screen name, not the same person over and over like you think. Click the dropdown next time you post and you'll see.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday July 14, 2009 10:17PM EDT

Look people, it's a simple concept.... Look for the "Made in USA" label now or you'll be the one looking for a job later! If we buy American products, American companies will employee Americans. Do your part and take 2 seconds to look for the "Made in USA" label, that's all it takes. Make this post viral, pass it on and post it everywhere you can.

Eddie Larry
Eddie Larry - Tuesday July 14, 2009 10:50PM EDT

Are we missing something here? the guy gave his opinion. His analysis of the charts is that the market can still go up for a while. So after a while if the scenario changes he can change his opinion. markets, economies people all fluctuate. Cosistency is the hobgoblin of small minds. If you don't like other peoples opinions just because they are different from yours - or if you don't like other people and their opinions period then move on don't read them give the rest of us a break. I think this guy might be wrong but so what - he may have a point to consider. Learn to talk to people.

dave
dave - Tuesday July 14, 2009 10:53PM EDT

I agree that the bear market rally can lift SP500 to ~1050-1100... but then the rally will reverse by year-end... next move should test March lows... and probably form new lows... if SP500 loses March lows, little support until 1990s levels (400-500 in 2010-2011)

Polski
Polski - Tuesday July 14, 2009 10:55PM EDT

Is that a positive, or negatif? Soon we might be looking for the Highs of March? What is the % of growth today to that of Jan 09? Compared to the "High" of Mar, we are at about a 100% gain, but the Market is still 40% of Sep o8? When does the Fun start?

Melia-Aneta
Melia-Aneta - Wednesday July 15, 2009 12:26AM EDT

"most of you are probably unemployed and collecting unemployment and have nothing to do but be negative..." And what, pray tell, is your take on things from mommy's basement? Some of us actually DO trade for a living, and we have more than a passing interest in what happens. It may seem absurd to believe in a 1050 S&P by September, but guess what - that can happen and THEN it can all come unglued... I suspect it's when both "cap & trade" and "health care reform" are shelved that we'd see a decent short-term rally.

DAVIDG
DAVIDG - Wednesday July 15, 2009 02:03AM EDT

Quote: "So Mr. coporate America needs to show they can fill the gap between 27 and 59, i.e. 22 (59-27=22) SO, this means on average, each quarter from now on must have a $7 increase on its correponding estimate, i.e. $14.27, $13.42, $13.17 respectively." Uh... I don't know... I might be wrong, but uh... 59-27=32. (and that's my final answer).

QuantumTrader
QuantumTrader - Wednesday July 15, 2009 02:51AM EDT

It was a head and shoulder pattern on the SP, and it worked. The breakdown was 899 to 868. 870 is major support, and held so far. That completed the HS pattern, and we got an oversold bounce. It is unlikely we will see a breakout over 950 anytime soon. Morons need to know how to correctly draw trend lines for patterns, and wait for confirmation. Otherwise you will get false signals/patterns. Market is not stupid, and never goes where the majority thinks it will be. Upside is still more likely than downside.......for now!

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday July 15, 2009 03:36AM EDT

both Subysti_389 and calibuddyred have been smelling the underpants of their moms too much. Eddie Larry and malaka0827 both have IQ of -99, look there is a 'negative' sign! And I don't buy any technical analysis. I wonder why these are not taught in college if they surely work. These are just theories, these are not even laws, like Newton's Law of Motion. Those guys who critize the people who comment here are like innocent babies who are just crying for attention when no ones need their poor input. I feel pity for them. And the guy here sounding so confident about the technical chart analysis. Gee, I was following thinkandswim.com last year, they told me and the rest of our class that the market would go up by end of 2008, but it continued down - way down!! Go figure anyone who can do better than stupid -- Subysti_389, calibuddyred, Eddie Larry and malaka0827.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday July 15, 2009 04:28AM EDT

"I'm not a big chart pattern guy"... so why is Aaron wasting his time asking him about head and shoulders??????

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