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Top Manager Sees "Huge Risk" in Alternative Energy as Proof of Global Warming Cools

Posted Jul 15, 2009 08:00am EDT by Aaron Task in Investing, Commodities, Clean Tech
Daniel Rice, manager of the BlackRock Energy & Resources Fund, is the best-performing U.S. equity fund manager of the past decade, according to Morningstar. He's also not afraid to speak his mind, especially when it comes to the subjects of global warming and alternative energy, as revealed in the accompanying video.

Rice paints a "pretty dire picture" of the whole alternative energy industry, with the possible exception of wind, based on the following:

  • Global warming patterns have reversed in the past decade, Rice says, citing studies by meteorologist Dr. Judah Cohen, whom BlackRock has on retainer. Ten years is microscopic in geological terms but "you'd better hope global warming is caused by man-made [carbon dioxide] if you're investing in these sectors," he says. "I think that's a huge risk based on some of the evidence that's been coming out."
  • Alternative energies are not economical without major government subsidies or a large enough carbon tax. The cap and trade legislation currently being debated is "not enough to do anything," Rice says. "All it does is provide Obama a pass to Copenhagen" where the U.N. is hosting a climate change conference in December.

More government subsidies for alternative energy could be forthcoming but "governments across the world are being stretched" by the economic crisis, Rice notes. "There's not a lot of excess money, excess credit, [and] not as much risk capital willing to go into these sector."

So unless the global warming patterns reverse and go higher again or the global economy makes a major recovery, Rice believes alternative energies like Exxon's algae fuel initiative will remain very much on the fringe, and investors in the space will face further disappointments.

 

95 Comments

archie1338
archie1338 - Wednesday July 15, 2009 08:22AM EDT

Not until "climate change" can for sure be linked to some global catastrophe (flooding of a coastal city for example), or oil production drops significantly will any progress be made in alternative energy. The US, in particular, is not very forward thinking based on policies that only ensure that votes are secured for the next election cycle. Basically, an entire city needs to be wiped off the face of the planet or oil needs to be 200 dollars a barrel for anyone to change the energy policy in this country. Sooner or later, one of these will happen unfortunately, but the only thing we're good at is reacting to problems instead of preventing them.

Mike
Mike - Wednesday July 15, 2009 08:29AM EDT

Oh God, the fraternity boys are doing us in again: they showed a graphic (which contained information contrary to what their guest was saying at the time) that claimed that the snows of Kilimanjaro are melting. Get it! Global warming, see. However temperatures up where the snow is receding on that mountain are almost never below freezing. The snow isn't melting, it's subliming (going directly from a solid to a vapor). It happens in your back yard too if the humidity is low enough and temperatures remain below freezing. In other words, even the global warming racketeers admit that the changes on Kilimanjaro are not due to warming, but are due to other changes (such as less humidity and precipitation due to deforestation).

bierterrasse
bierterrasse - Wednesday July 15, 2009 08:36AM EDT

Well, well, well . . a deep subject. Take into consideration: (1) China and India are adding automobiles at rapidly increasing rates and will continue to consume more oil. China is expected by 2025 to have more total vehicles than the U.S. Oil prices obviously are going to be moving higher, but maybe not in the next 6 months, if that is your horizon. Nevertheless, should we wait until profitable thresholds are surpassed before building alternative energy capacities? (2) Consider that most people cannot breathe at the top of Everest, 29,029 feet, a total of 5.5 miles. 5.5 miles is not even half way to my favorite restaurant across town. Sir Hillary in his 50s with a heart condition was told by his doctors not to go above 19,000 feet, or 3.6 miles. Yes, I think burning 20.7 billion barrels of oil PER DAY in the US alone is enough to have some effect on our atmosphere. (3) Consider that 2008 was the solar minimum. The last solar maximum was in 2003. There have been plenty of reports on the radio that the solar minimum is lasting longer than usual this time. So, yes, the climate may have been cooling when you compare 2000 with 2008. If you think this is a joke, consider that the sun exchanges north for south pole every 11 years, which has something to do with the 11 year solar min-max cycle. (4) When the poor planning of our national energy czars becomes painfully apparent, Europe will already have hundreds of square miles of solar collectors paying out a continuing 12% per year return to investors. If you think this is a joke, read some European newspapers where these investment opportunities are advertised.

marx
marx - Wednesday July 15, 2009 08:37AM EDT

If they were really serious about alternatives they would release all the patents bought out years ago and put those in the marketplace

harshing_my_mellow
harshing_my_mellow - Wednesday July 15, 2009 08:47AM EDT

bierterrasse ------ Read about the grand solar solution experiment in Seville, Spain.

MikeD
MikeD - Wednesday July 15, 2009 08:48AM EDT

^^ Huh?

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday July 15, 2009 08:49AM EDT

I recon global warming is the spin to encourage people to use less fossil fuel without scaring them to death by telling them directly that it is running out. I like the idea of cheap green energy so lets get it sorted anyways America the world is leaving us behind!

Tex
Tex - Wednesday July 15, 2009 08:49AM EDT

I think this guy is wrong; he is looking at alternative energy from a too narrow perspective. Look at iShares S&P Global Clean Energy Index (ICLN) to get a global perspective on alternative energy. Whether you believe global warming is caused by man (and I don't) there are still compelling reasons ( national security, oil price volatility) to build out an alternative energy infrastructure.

nickolasm
nickolasm - Wednesday July 15, 2009 08:52AM EDT

Ok global warming due to CO2 may be a myth but still we need non-pollutant ways to make electricity AND we need independence from importing energy sources. Furthermore present environment is ideal for the government to spend in these new technologies as a meaningful way to stimulate the economy. There is one thing certain: There will be a time that we will not be making energy from fossil fuels. It could be algae or it could be solar. I hope it wont be nuclear!

Luke M
Luke M - Wednesday July 15, 2009 08:55AM EDT

I have serious questions about the integrity of anyone who comes out and tries to say global warming isn't real. Its so ridiculous. 'Well its cold outside today so global warming doesn't exist'. Right, these friggin lunatics will deny the evidence until eventually its too late to fix it. These are the people that said iraq had weapons of mass destruction. And these are the people that tried to convince america that financial engineering is a viable field. And that tax cuts and status quo policies and corruption were just the way it is. If you don't get global warming you are a dinosaur. You don't exist. There's no time to sit here and try to convince every neanderthal that for some reason rejects the premise that it is real. The masses get it. Increasingly so. And the ball is no longer in the hands of small minded anti intellectuals. Thank God for that.

Art
Art - Wednesday July 15, 2009 08:56AM EDT

Climate changes are normal activity that has been happening since the beginning of the planet. Arrogant that people think that human activity can change the climate. The sun and sunspot activity are the main factor in climate change. As usual, the democrats are being deceitful (lying) in order to further their socialist agenda.

GaryinMichigan
GaryinMichigan - Wednesday July 15, 2009 08:59AM EDT

Do we have to wait until we are held hostage again by the major oil producing countries? Does this author not believe that part of the poor economic climate is the billions of dollars taken from individuals pockets a year ago? The conflict of quick profits versus sound business management is at a crossroads, I hope! Let's undertand this that whether or not global warming is caused by humans or natural sources should we not try to limit the damage? Not sound reasoning according to wall street (as if they have a clue of scientific matters!

Dustin
Dustin - Wednesday July 15, 2009 08:59AM EDT

Looking only at one recent article by Dr. Cohen, i would hardly count him in the global-warming skeptic camp, as the Tech Ticker article implies. here's a quote from the conclusion to a March 2009 paper he co-wrote that's available on the web: "It is expected that global warming will not necessarily be uniform but may have large variations at regional scales as the circulation dynamics adjust to the changing radiative forcing and cryospheric conditions." "Decadal fluctuations in planetary wave forcing modulate global warming", Cohen, et al., http://web.mit.edu/jlcohen/www/papers/Cohenetal2009.pdf. 2 in late boreal winter

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday July 15, 2009 09:00AM EDT

Alt energy has little to do with global warming. Whatever you believe about warming, the fact remains, we send way too much money to our "enemies" in return for their oil, which they can seriously impact the price of simply by limiting production. The move toward alternatives is already underway, and while I'm not recommending this or any other particular stock, if you don't find one early that suits your tastes, you are going to miss the boat. Take a small chance on a few sub-penny alt energy stocks that look promising. That's my advice, but suit yourselves.

Jollyroger
Jollyroger - Wednesday July 15, 2009 09:04AM EDT

Just think of the billions already wasted, when in fact it may have done nothing or very little. And more spending to come for something that is not proven, and in fact questioned. Just like the gov's stimulus plans.....what a waste for long term pain.....but just like "all" scientists agree to human climate change I guess "all" economists agree to the stimulus plans to (according to Obama)!

Devin J
Devin J - Wednesday July 15, 2009 09:05AM EDT

This guy is throwing himself out there to the environmental wolves. Global warming has absolutely nothing to do with market investing. Why would anyone take his professional "environmental" advise for anything. Clean energy is not a choice.... its something that has to be done regardless of cost.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday July 15, 2009 09:07AM EDT

Alt energy has little to do with global warming. Whatever you believe about warming, the fact remains, we send way too much money to our "enemies" in return for their oil, which they can seriously impact the price of simply by limiting production. The move toward alternatives is already underway, and while I'm not recommending this or any other particular stock, if you don't find one early that suits your tastes, you are going to miss the boat. Take a small chance on a few sub-penny alt energy stocks that look promising. That's my advice, but suit yourselves.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday July 15, 2009 09:08AM EDT

Yes, there has been global COOLING for the past 10 years! What an inconvenient truth for someone like Al Gore who is heavily invested in green stocks.

- Wednesday July 15, 2009 09:10AM EDT

I second what Tex says. Rice's argument places the focus on "subsidies for renewables" as subtext to smooth talk good ole boy investors into a non-financial agenda and inflame tree huggers. We spend $4 dollars at the Dept of Defense for every $1 of oil that comes out of the Persian Gulf. So the premise that renewables are "subsidized energy" whereas oil is truly "free trade" is false, false, false.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday July 15, 2009 09:15AM EDT

@Luke M - he is not talking about a single day, he is talking about the trend of temperatures the last decade. World Wide temps have been going down the last 10 years despite carbon going up. This is completely opposite to everything Gore believes in.....so if anyone is anti-intellectual, it is Al Gore. Notice how I used "believes", because all this Global Warming is based on a religious like belief.

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