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Market to Hit New Lows While We Wait for Next Year's Economic Recovery

Posted Jul 15, 2009 11:35am EDT by Peter Gorenstein in Investing, Recession

Most U.S. consumers believe the economy is not getting any worse, according to a recent poll conducted for Reuters, but that does not mean they're ready to spend like the good ol' days.  Of 1,001 consumers surveyed by America's Research Group, 40.1% said the economy was getting better, and 33.8% said the economy was the same.

That's exactly why economist Gary Shilling isn't expecting a recovery anytime soon.  Shilling, who correctly predicted the recession well ahead of other experts, says, "with this consumer retrenchment, we'll probably see the recession last until first half of next year."

And when the economy does turn, don't expect a robust return to growth, he says.

His reasoning:

  • The housing market usually returns to strength, but Shilling says that won't happen this time. That's because the inventories are still too large, and as he puts it, "they are the mortal enemy of prices."
  • Consumers have learned their lesson. "We've never seen consumer spending retrench like this."
In fact, the rebound will be so sluggish it might escape notice. "You won’t even know there is a recovery, and unemployment will be increasing," he claims.

 
All this spells bad news for the stock market. Shilling predicts weak earnings will drag the market down to new lows. He predicts, the S&P 500 will bottom at about 600 late this year, though he’s not calling for a crash. Instead, he says with a smile, "it may be Chinese water torture." He must be short.

157 Comments

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday July 15, 2009 11:45AM EDT

Unemployment is NOT a lagging indicator!!!! There will be no recovery until unemployment ceases. Stop propagating the Obama-cide lies.

- Wednesday July 15, 2009 11:46AM EDT

Yeah, that's crap...Have you ever heard Shaun Hannity's "Man on the Street" Thursdays? Have you ever seen Jay Leno's "Jay-Walking"? What is to be gained by polling? I would rather use a OUIJI BOARD to predict the future and get insight into present sentiment.

- Wednesday July 15, 2009 11:46AM EDT

This is news???? The most reasonable forecasts have been predicting recovery won't happen until 2010, which now seems even more accurate. Stock market valuation leads economic recovery on anticipation, so why would S&P go to 600 when the closer we get to 2010, the close the market will believe they are to recovery??

- Wednesday July 15, 2009 11:52AM EDT

Is there ANY substance to the market at all? All this coercion the green shoots, the recession is easing- it's working... why? because the market is trading up? Does it matter if the market has any substance? Is it/can it/ has it always been traded on hype? Please answer- I'd like to know

- Wednesday July 15, 2009 11:53AM EDT

Is there ANY substance to the market at all? All this coercion the green shoots, the recession is easing- it's working... why? because the market is trading up? Does it matter if the market has any substance? Is it/can it/ has it always been traded on hype? Please answer- I'd like to know

- Wednesday July 15, 2009 11:54AM EDT

I like this guy! I just like him!

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday July 15, 2009 11:54AM EDT

Prediction: Paulson gonna get a pat on the back and it's gonna be Bush's wild west till November.

- Wednesday July 15, 2009 11:54AM EDT

Housing markets would improve if the banks would just take the losses and sell/tear down what they are holding. Why are banks holding foreclosed properties, you ask? Because they don't want to take the losses.

- Wednesday July 15, 2009 11:54AM EDT

its really quite simple. when the market closes above 903 go long and when the market closes below 903 short it. keep it simple and you win.

- Wednesday July 15, 2009 11:55AM EDT

This guy needs a real job. Things are slowly getting better, not worse. Unemployment will continue to go up for a while but most of us already know that unemployment lags a recovery.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday July 15, 2009 11:56AM EDT

Deja-vu - Blah blah blah - 2007 - second half 2008 recovery - 2008 - early 2009 recovery - optimissim OBAMA - yahoo - 2009 - March - "It's the bottom" - "green shoots" - second half recovery - Today- jobless recovery (this is the most obsurd term reiterated today; consumer economy without jobs?) 2010 new recovery date? 2010 - 2011 recovery - 2011 - 2012 - Realization - this is the new reality - live with it!

- Wednesday July 15, 2009 11:57AM EDT

This guy needs a real job. Things are slowly getting better, not worse. Unemployment will continue to go up for a while but most of us already know that unemployment lags a recovery.

- Wednesday July 15, 2009 11:58AM EDT

How did this guy do in 2007. What was his results. Everybody is good at predicting. Most "pro's" were down almost 50% in their funds, and stock picks. I won't listen to anyone unless they tell me how they did during the crash. Was this guy short? I doubt it.

- Wednesday July 15, 2009 12:00PM EDT

What is going to happen when the next round of earning's reports come out? These guys lowballed the numbers and then say that things were not as bad as expected... Jiminy Crickets, 100's of thousands of people are losing their jobs every week.... This market is cooked. Look at today... Does today's news necessitate a 180 point jump? Or, was it because "they" set the target to 1010 yesterday?

- Wednesday July 15, 2009 12:00PM EDT

market is trading at around 15 times PE on the assumption of a V shaped recovery. If we do have a V shaped recovery, then the rally since March has been justified. Otherwise, we are going to see a big correction.

- Wednesday July 15, 2009 12:05PM EDT

I hope he is right I just shorted the market today

- Wednesday July 15, 2009 12:06PM EDT

Pavlov's dog has been trained! The "rebound", mentioned in print, came and went, in Jan 09? See: Mar 09? Note: We now have the Historic, Fundamentals, Chart, Statistics, to show a half-life Pattern of Economic, Financial, DOW, NASDAQ, fluctuations. When will we recover the 40%, present calculation, losses of Sep 08? Many companies valued/selling/ @ 50% of Sep 08, 52 wk highs? What is a/the "Rebound"?

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday July 15, 2009 12:09PM EDT

with obama the socialist making sure unemployment is high.. no recovery in 2010... how can there be a recovery with unemployment 14%?... obama is destroying America, working to socialize America.. where are these GREEN JOBS THEN? HMMMM?... don't forget the stimulus money is only 10% gone..why??? it was NEVER ENTITLED TO STIMULATE ANYTHING... it's a payoff system to get reelected in 2010 and 2012..... ie, ACORN getting 4.5 BILLION BUCKS... ACORN? a thug and goon outfit to fix voter registration and dead vote... NO HOUSING revival.. no jobs.... obama will see to it.. NO JOBS DUMMIES...OBAMA koolaid drinkers...how's that hope and change working out for ya now??? BAWHAHAHAHAH... obama THEE WORST PREZ IN HISTORY IN ONLY 6 MONTHS...

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday July 15, 2009 12:09PM EDT

While he is predicting S&P going to 600, S&P has jumped up more than 2% today to 925. Remember "Joe, "I am the greatest" Granville who predicted world was going to end. This guy seems to be reincarnation of Granville

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday July 15, 2009 12:10PM EDT

Jesse, you are right in saying that the market can go up on pure hype such as what happened in the Japanese stock market. But eventually, a market based on hype has to face reality.

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