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Shanghai Surprise: China's Stock Boom Deflating Ahead of Olympics

Posted Jun 19, 2008 10:35am EDT by Aaron Task in Investing

China's Shanghai Composite tumbled 6.5% overnight and has now fallen 11 of the past 12 trading days. With the index now down more than 50% from its all-time high in October, it's clear the conventional wisdom about China "holding up" the market before the Olympics was wrong -- as it often is.

Darren Chervitz, Co-Manager of the Jacob Internet Fund, has taken an unconventional view of China, long expressing concern about the sustainability of its economic boom -- especially in the face of a U.S. slowdown.

But Chervitz notes the action in Shanghai does not necessarily correlate to the performance of Chinese ADRs like Sina.com and Sohu.com, which are among his fund's biggest holdings.

18 Comments

Allen
Allen - Thursday June 19, 2008 10:55AM EDT

1

you
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday June 19, 2008 11:00AM EDT

China has a long way to go...

- Thursday June 19, 2008 11:01AM EDT

The Chinese Market is down 50%. This forecasts a slow down in China. Wake up! This will squash any interest rate hike fears in the US.

Andy
Andy - Thursday June 19, 2008 11:12AM EDT

Isn't China's raise of gas prices bad for most of the Chinese companies in the short term as they are all heavy energy consumers? Except benefiting the 2 petro companies (SNP and PTR), doesn't it hurt the rest? So, why would FXI going up? How much do those 2 companies account for FXI? Doesn't FXI look like hanging by the cliff?

you
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday June 19, 2008 11:13AM EDT

This story is weak sauce. China manipulates EVERYTHING to their advantage. I would encourage looking for the invisible hand as China has a lot to lose... a silly economic conference and Olympics is an opportunity which will be seized by China and bought (again, and again, and again) by US politicians.

shen
shen - Thursday June 19, 2008 11:17AM EDT

But it is still up 200% from 3 years ago

you
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday June 19, 2008 11:21AM EDT

In the long run, China will do well. There are ups and downs but over the long run, i believe it is uptrend. Good to start accumulating for next 10 years or more.

you
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday June 19, 2008 11:31AM EDT

People will just go back to using more bicycles... even when gas was "cheap" lots of workers would use bikes...even like delivering refrigerators and washing machines...however, auto drivers would suffer...which isn't a bad thing considering the traffic.

MarioN
MarioN - Thursday June 19, 2008 11:32AM EDT

It sure looks nice but it nevers mentioned mpg in the city or road.Definetely it will be considered in the near future

Walter
Walter - Thursday June 19, 2008 12:12PM EDT

It is definitely a down cycle. Patience will be rewarded.

you
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday June 19, 2008 12:21PM EDT

Bicycle, motorcycle, motorpad and electrical tricycle were banded in main cities of china, that along increased the use of cars and public transportations. Stupid people run the government, with such high inflation rate, I don't see their stock goes up in any time soon.

you
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday June 19, 2008 12:23PM EDT

Housing market is next to drop in china.

you
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday June 19, 2008 12:25PM EDT

I agree with k81k81...

you
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday June 19, 2008 12:37PM EDT

Food prices are going up and this reduces what the average Chinese person can spend on other things. With food and fuel costs rising, it cuts down on money and demand for cheaper foreign products, like those produced in the U.S. Despite the loss of american jobs to China, there is plenty of American made products being sold there, so a down-turn in their economy will hurt us, as well. When I lived there in 2002, Chinese farmers were complaining that the government was buying US produced rice because the price was lower than could be produced locally. US.agricultural products are being heavily marketed to China and have quite a foot hold as long as Chinese people can afford them. When prices soar for everyday goods, it will affect our economy as well.

VladimirS
VladimirS - Thursday June 19, 2008 08:02PM EDT

Will we see a gain in the China Ultra-Short (FXP) based on this? Sure hasn't gone that much higher on a day-to day basis.

you
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday June 20, 2008 04:33PM EDT

China will boom going right into the olympics, and continue to build for the immediate decade after, just like Japan in the 60s.

genah
genah - Thursday June 19, 2008 01:27PM EDT

why bother reading this guy . he spends more time triming his beard then research the time to buy is now

Pawan
Pawan - Sunday June 22, 2008 11:57AM EDT

what say sina. " ovesold"

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