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Oil "Well Overpriced" and Will Keep Falling; Gasoline to Follow, Energy Trader Says

Posted Jul 29, 2009 12:43pm EDT by Aaron Task in Investing, Commodities
After rallying nearly 50% this year, crude prices hit a major speed bump this week as the dollar has firmed up and inventories have risen.

Oil prices were "well overpriced" in the $70s and will continue to weaken in the weeks and months ahead, says James Cordier, President of Liberty Trading Group and co-author of The Complete Guide to Option Selling.

Rather than increased demand, the recent rally was based mainly on speculative demand driven by government stimulus packages, Cordier says. Most notably, a flood of liquidity in China found its way into commodities and China's economy now "looks like a bubble," he says, joining a growing chorus.

More evidence the rally was not demand driven emerged Wednesday, when the Energy Department said inventories surged by 5.15 million barrels in the week ended July 24, the biggest weekly increase since April and vs. forecasts for a decline if 1.5 million barrels, according to Bloomberg.

In reaction, crude futures were recently down more than 5%, on track for their biggest decline in three months.

Cordier, who made a well-timed call on a coming oil rally here in February, now expects crude to fall $10 to $15 from recent levels. In anticipation of that drop, Liberty is making a bearish trade -- "selling calls with both hands," Cordier says.

If and when that happens, he also predicts prices at the pump will fall 10 to 15 cents from current levels, which would be welcomed news for cash-strapped Americans.

157 Comments

LCBWTB
LCBWTB - Wednesday July 29, 2009 12:55PM EDT

YAYYYYYYYY !!!!!!!

yogi9448
yogi9448 - Wednesday July 29, 2009 12:58PM EDT

I'm in the same camp, indicators show a probabilty for the dollar to move up and oil to drop, bought SCO yesterday and this morning.......ooops, damn you speculators/traders/hedge funds, controlling the price of oil.....PS: to all non-socialsts in case of false breakout - remember your trailing stops.

Robert
Robert - Wednesday July 29, 2009 01:02PM EDT

Oil back down, soon after Labor day with Oct -Dec to $42 price

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday July 29, 2009 01:09PM EDT

If oil prices do drop, they will be ~$55 per barrel. This is still way to high for oil. It should be in the $40 per barrel range... Now I have to ask the question... If oil prices are 1/3rd of what they were ($150 per barrel as compared to $55 per barrel) and at the peak gas prices were ~$4 per gallon, then why o why aren't gas prices 1/3rd of what they were? Even if gas prices fall $0.10 to $0.15 cents per gallon, THEY ARE STILL ABOUT $1.00 HIGHER PER GALLON THAN THEY SHOULD BE! Last year we were told gas prices were so high because of the high oil price. Now that the oil price is relatively low, why isn't gas relatively low as well (and no, $2.30 a gallon is not relatively low)?

wynn
wynn - Wednesday July 29, 2009 01:12PM EDT

Drill offshore, put in nuc plants, increase natural gas run autos since natural gas is so plentiful in US and low priced We need to get energy independent but it will not come by way of Obama's and Gore's windmills and solar alone - Global warming made by man's CO2 emissions is a HOAX! it is a cycle!!

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday July 29, 2009 01:12PM EDT

I'm buying BP when it hits $5.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday July 29, 2009 01:21PM EDT

Where do these billions of futures contracts go? Anybody who actually needs oil has already bought their needed supply months in advance. If I buy a contract for a barrel of oil in september, when september comes around who actually needs it and will buy it? Do they just get recycled?

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday July 29, 2009 01:26PM EDT

I hope MR Cordier is right.

Kathryn
Kathryn - Wednesday July 29, 2009 01:27PM EDT

Back in 1980, people were shocked when gas rose above $1.00 for the first time. Just four years earlier gas was $0.60 per gallon and in 1969 it was only $0.35 a gallon. By 1981 only 12 years later it was a full dollar higher at $1.35. That is an increase of 286% in 12 years!.................Compare that to the price increase from 1998 where the average price was $1.02 and by 2008 it had increased to $3.22 and you "only" have a 216% increase. Interestingly, the average price of a gallon of gas from 1918 to the present is $2.37 in inflation adjusted dollars.

giraffes
giraffes - Wednesday July 29, 2009 01:28PM EDT

Again with the dire predictions. You keep making them, they keep not happening. What good is mentioning something he was right about if you ignore all that he was wrong about. Have you ever had a guest that was wrong about anything?

Ray
Ray - Wednesday July 29, 2009 01:30PM EDT

Oil prices are a little high. Fair value is just north of $25 a barrel. Our new friend IRAQ is a huge largly untapped oil field. We are building a new natural gas pipeline from Alaska. The best way to control the oil speculators and OPEC is to flood the market with cheap energy. Natural gas, clean coal, atom power, wind power, etc. In the mean time take I am taking my foot off the gas.

Andrew
Andrew - Wednesday July 29, 2009 01:41PM EDT

Gasoline prices are not in tune with crude oil prices. The price of crude will drop and the price of gasoline will remain about the same in the US... no 10-15 cent price drop. How do you think ExxonMobil is posting record profits while Joe Everyman can't afford to fill up his car? End petroleum dependence...

Richard R
Richard R - Wednesday July 29, 2009 01:42PM EDT

retail keeps the price of oil high, we need to flood the market, raise stock level, so retailers have to drop the price. We need to "DRILL BABY DRILL, AMERICAN OIL".

yogi9448
yogi9448 - Wednesday July 29, 2009 01:46PM EDT

Which has gone up more in the last 30 years a gallon of gasoline or a gallon of milk?.....which takes more effort to produce?

Kathryn
Kathryn - Wednesday July 29, 2009 01:52PM EDT

Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday July 29, 2009 01:09PM EDT..............If oil prices are 1/3rd of what they were ($150 per barrel as compared to $55 per barrel) and at the peak gas prices were ~$4 per gallon, then why o why aren't gas prices 1/3rd of what they were?...............................Crude accounts for only 40 to 50% of the cost of gasoline. If crude price drops by half, gasoline price only drops by one fourth. The main other costs are tax, refining, distribution, marketing and retail.

edward
edward - Wednesday July 29, 2009 01:52PM EDT

Imagine what benefits the US economy would have with "stable" oil prices. With all of the worlds production capacity we should be able to keep inventory at an "on demand" level. Let every one involved, XOM, HAL, SLB, RIG et al make their profits. Yes, right now oil is dropping because of we an excess supply. I see this as a good thing for the world economy. Ed

eric
eric - Wednesday July 29, 2009 01:53PM EDT

Before claiming oil is over priced, or whining about speculation (wait, doesn't speculation work in both directions?), do yourself a favor and Google: "non-OPEC oil production".... Pull up a chart of non-OPEC production for the last 20 years. Take a deep breath. Notice anything special? Why didn't production rise at all over the last 5 years as prices went up? Answer that question before blaming boogie men for higher prices.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday July 29, 2009 01:54PM EDT

bet it doesnt

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday July 29, 2009 01:59PM EDT

But he sucker's rally on equities is still alive and well. All the so called experts are now bullish even though revenues keep falling. 95% of fund managers miscalculated the market. A career in finance is good for heard-minded people who have no idea.

BeingH
BeingH - Wednesday July 29, 2009 02:04PM EDT

Oil will be worthless. Piss will be used to run most everything. We already have Piss batteries and great strides are being made almost daily. That's urine folks, no kidding..

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