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Housing Bottom? No, the Mother of All Head Fakes

Posted Jul 31, 2009 11:31am EDT by Henry Blodget in Investing, Recession, Banking

From The Business Insider, July 31, 2009:

Housing bears immediately tried to poke holes in the surprisingly good numbers in the May Case Shiller report. 

The most widespread bear argument, that the rise was just seasonal, is weak: Even the seasonally adjusted numbers were the best in three years.

Two other arguments, however, are more persuasive. 

Whitney Tilson of T2 Partners calls the May numbers "the mother of all head fakes."  He--and the two analysts below--think house prices will resume their decline in the fall.  We're in that camp, too...

Bear Case 1: The Seasonal Adjustments Are Too Weak

The first argument against reading too much into the May numbers, made by Calculated Risk, is that the "seasonal adjustment" factor used by Case Shiller is not strong enough.  Under this theory, a more appropriate seasonal adjustment would have showed a steeper decline in seasonally adjusted May numbers.

To support this argument, Calculated Risk plots the non-seasonally adjusted Case Shiller numbers (blue) and the seasonally adjusted ones (red).  He notes that, during the 1990s, the seasonally adjusted numbers smoothed the seasonal variations to a relatively flat line (as they should).  In the nutty 2000s, however, the seasonal adjustments produced wild swings that almost tracked the non-seasonal adjustments--thus defeating the purpose of attempting to "seasonally adjust" the numbers at all. 

Thus, in Calculated Risk's opinion, house prices will start falling sharply again in the fall, when the seasonal boost peters out.

Bear Case 2: It's Just A Mix Issue

The second bear argument, made by Mark Hanson, is even more persuasive.  In a nutshell, Hanson argues that the strong Case Shiller numbers were just due to a temporary seasonal change in the mix of houses sold--with "organic sales" (normal, voluntary, free-market sales) becoming a larger percentage of the overall sales than they were in the winter, when distressed foreclosure sales dominated.

In 2008, Mark's argument goes, foreclosures climbed steadily through the year.  Most foreclosures in 2008 were on lower-end, subprime houses that plummeted in price as banks dumped them at distressed prices.  This year, however--at least in California--foreclosures have stayed relatively flat (at a high level).

Meanwhile, the organic sales market--sellers who actually want to sell--picks up each summer.  In recent years, with most foreclosures taking place at the low-end of the market, the organic sales market has tended to include higher-priced houses that aren't sold in distress. 

Last summer, rising low-priced foreclosures overwhelmed the seasonal spike in high-priced organic sales, so average houses prices kept falling.  This year, however, with flatter foreclosures, the seasonal spike in organic sales is having a far larger impact.  Thus, in the past few months, the median sale price has risen.

In other words, Hanson attributes the rise in the Case Shiller index to a seasonal mix issue, not a bottoming in national prices.

Here's Mark's argument in detail:

Slight median and average house price appreciation is being seen across some MSA's mostly in the bubble states - there is no doubt about this. ... [T]he simple line chart I added below best highlights the temporary organic/foreclosure-related seasonal mix-shift responsible for the price movement.    
  
 The chart below shows clearly the organic sales seasonality (pink) in 2008 and 2009. But in 2008, foreclosure-related resales were surging relative to organic sales each month.  And in 2009 they have remained relatively flat all year.

The leveling out of foreclosure-related resales has made organic sales going up and down the deciding price factor. This year, as more organic sales (including more jumbo homes going off this year due to price dumping) relative to foreclosure-related resales happened during the peak season, the median and average prices moved in lock-step towards the higher organic market price.
   
But the season ends now. Every year, organic sales fall off of a cliff beginning in August primarily because kids go back to school in Sept. If organic sales follow typical seasonality trends lower again this year and foreclosure-related resales stay the same or rise (no reason they shouldn't), then the average and median prices will be pulled quickly back towards the distressed market price. Never before in the history of the housing market have we had two markets pulling and pushing on each other like this.
  
You hear all of the time -- '"house prices turning is like a turn a freighter therefore, this tick up is a definitive leading indicator". That is just not the case in the new-era housing market.
[The numbers here correspond to the numbers on the chart below, which is data from California only]
 
1. Previous to 2007, organic sales were the housing market. Foreclosure-resales made up 5% at most.
 
2. Prices were at a peak through mid 2007.
 
3. Foreclosure resales (sold through a realtor channel) began infesting the mix -- organic sales and median prices began to drop sharply.
 
4. Foreclosure resales keep rising for over a year while and prices continued to fall as the median price was pulled towards the foreclosure-related resale market price. In September 2008, they overtake organic sales. By Nov 2008, foreclosure resales peaked due to maximum demand from investors and first timers, foreclosure moratoriums, etc.
 
5. In Jan 2009, after a 55% house price drop, median prices level out as the early purchase season begins and organic sales begin to increase. Additionally, foreclosure-related resale inventory has been held artificially low due to moratoriums and/or servicers keeping inventory off the market on purpose.  In April 2009, CA median house prices bottom.
 
6. Going into the busy season, organic sales bounce hard (just like they did the year prior), hit an inflection point in May and reclaim the mix in June.
 
7. Median house prices began to turn upward in May -- moving toward the organic market price -- shortly after organic sales began to reclaim the mix.
(See pink line leading yellow line beginning at '6'.)
 
 
See also from The Business Insider:
It's True!  The Housing Market Really Is Getting Less Bad
July Housing Report: Plenty More Downside

209 Comments

chubby
chubby - Friday July 31, 2009 11:47AM EDT

OK, so when the actual data shows that you're completely wrong you invent some reason that the data is wrong so you can be right. Right?

Wehrmeister2000
Wehrmeister2000 - Friday July 31, 2009 11:53AM EDT

Crazy. Glad I am not in That Market right now...

Katy C
Katy C - Friday July 31, 2009 11:54AM EDT

The re-finance plans that Obama has put forth are not really working for most. They aren't helping the majority who are unable to get a fixed rate on their adjustable rate mortgages. When hyperinflation hits along with all the new fees and taxes we now have, added together with the taxes that are on their way, millions and millions of Americans will default to banks that are holding hundreds of billiions of our taxpayer dollars.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday July 31, 2009 11:55AM EDT

So let me get this straight for all those years that people were getting foreclosed on the government offered them bankruptsy. But now all of a sudden the government is staving off forclosures with our tax dollars and artifically keeping the real estate market inflated? Why would we start doing that. Why is the government not allowing people to realize the error of their ways. They cannot afford the house, move out...sell at a loss. When people take loans that they don't understand and can't afford, how is it the responsibility of prudent tax payers to bail them out?

Melia Sese
Melia Sese - Friday July 31, 2009 11:58AM EDT

I tend to agree with the analysis - there are still too many factors pushing values down. While it'd be nice to think the bottom is in, "crap and trade" (where you cannot sell a house without it being "energy efficient" this leaves out most older houses) and higher taxes make things too uncertain. Sorry, bulls... but new home sales are another matter.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday July 31, 2009 11:59AM EDT

What is great in this free market economy is that the government is practicing unfair competition. The government is now the largest stakeholder in GM. And they have a "Cash for Clunkers" program, true it has been put on hold, but that is unfairly injecting money into a sector that they own the largest manufacturer in. This became a slippery slope when they decided to bail out GM instead of letting it go bankrupt. Now the government is practicing un-ethical business practices by using taxpayer money to artifically improve the auto market. And they will do the same thing with healthcare and banking.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday July 31, 2009 12:01PM EDT

like the stock market...dead cat bounce.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday July 31, 2009 12:02PM EDT

As the Titanic was sinking the following statements were heard from the watching experts: She's sinking, boys ... She's listing badly now ... Look at the water-line, nothing can save here now ... Wait! The stern is coming back up! She's saved! ... The bridge is going under. She's going now ... Wait! The stern is lifting into the air! She's taking off, up she goes into the wide blue yonder, better get back aboard boys, while you can ... She's down by the bow ... She's flying high! Look at that stern soar! ... But where did the bridge go? ... There she goes. Soaring. Sinking. ... She's gone.

Marla
Marla - Friday July 31, 2009 12:03PM EDT

Keep wishing Henry. Maybe someone will believe you, but I suspect the vast majority of people will not. Theres still time for you to save some face and admit you were WRONG.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday July 31, 2009 12:04PM EDT

OF COURSE house prices will resume their decline. We REALLY blew it - we crashed the market, collapsed the economy, and now we’re going to have to pay the piper by suffering through a full-blown DEPRESSION. Why can’t people face up to what they’ve done?

Griz
Griz - Friday July 31, 2009 12:06PM EDT

Wicked cool. No one is employed but we're all going to bid up the price of housing. Come to think of it, I'll buy 5 and then refinance them all after this temporary inflection gets baked into the appraisal then walk with all of the toys I bought with my re-fi money... Walk away from your debts, it's the new cool in-thing to do (all your neighbors are doing it, only a fool woul still pay his/her mortgage).

Jeremy
Jeremy - Friday July 31, 2009 12:06PM EDT

Katy C, your talking points are straight from the Rush/Sean/Glenn handbook. Those are some VERY original points you make.

Bear Mauler
Bear Mauler - Friday July 31, 2009 12:07PM EDT

None of this matters. Obama and Bush have doomed the future of our country.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday July 31, 2009 12:07PM EDT

We are still.....3-4 Years.....AWAY From The BOTTOM....Look At The UNEMPLOYMENT..."Numbers"...The NOBAMA'S..Admnistration....Stated Today On:...CNN..T.V.....That The Unempoyment...."Projections"...For the Next.....3 Years...."WILL REMAIN....HIGH....In The Double Digits Numbers...{12%- 14%}....UNEMPLOYMENT Will Be A big Factor,,,,With "Double Digit".....Unemployment,,,For Another..."3-Years"....We will Have A Long Ways To Go.....!!!!!! {Save Your Money}

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday July 31, 2009 12:08PM EDT

Isn't this the government artificially floating the real estate market with the $8000.00 credit. What happens when that credit dissapears.? Housing prices shoot down.

ritchierich
ritchierich - Friday July 31, 2009 12:08PM EDT

Popoy???? Where's Jonny Ike?

MichaelM
MichaelM - Friday July 31, 2009 12:10PM EDT

The housing market has not bottomed. Every housing statistic is still in down trend. A slight increase in an index does not necessarily indicate a bottom. The problem is the financial media want to sell advertising and the only way they can is to declare that a slight increase means the housing market is "soaring" or "booming". Check out the AP articles. They are ridiculous.

Katy C
Katy C - Friday July 31, 2009 12:11PM EDT

Carol Browner, Obama's energy czar, is one of those Bilderbergs who are looking to wipe out 90 percent of the population, so housing and jobs are not a real priority for this government. Getting rid of people is the key for them. No, they do not want you to have jobs, a car, a house. What they really want is for you to go away.

Jeffrey
Jeffrey - Friday July 31, 2009 12:12PM EDT

I understand that the government has told the banks and realtors to stop advertising forclosures. This will inflate the price of a home and make people outbid each other. I heard that the millions of forclosures will hit the market near the end of September. There will be another major drop in the stock marker.

LesleyD
LesleyD - Friday July 31, 2009 12:15PM EDT

Why are we not looking to reform Health care instead of doing the whole thing over. The Federal Government has never done well with being in charge of programs, once we have them we can get rid of them. Can we not keep the good and get rid of the bad. Start small. No Pre Excisting condition, etc.... This is something everyone can agree on. Why does it have to be a sweeping of all the old. Choice makes America GREAT!! Everyone know that the middle class we have to pay for these changes, why doesn't congress know this. If we are changing then Congress should be the first to go on the new program. If it is good enought for the rest of us then it should be good enought for the Speaker of the House. Franks should be the first for managed care, the house and congress so be mandated to try the program first. Comman sense should be used for all Federal Programs. Nothing wrong with dream big but cost has to be concern. Family have it hard now and don't need new taxesand don't need to worry whether or not they can see a doctor for life change events. They don't need to tell their parents the government won't tell them get needed surgeries, hips, pace-makers...etc. No one wants to be the bear of bad news!!!

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