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Dollar's Hit a "Major Bottom," Prechter Says: Why That's Not Such Good News

Posted Aug 11, 2009 07:44am EDT by Peter Gorenstein in Newsmakers, Commodities

Forget all the talk about the dollar being in terminal decline. The recent rally in the greenback is for real, says Robert Prechter, president of Elliott Wave International. The man who correctly predicted the 1987 crash and last year's peak in oil prices now says we're "going to be up for a year or two in the dollar."

Reuters and other mainstream news outlets attribute the recent uptick in the dollar versus other major currencies to an improving economy signaled by Friday's "stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs numbers." Prechter, ever the contrarian, says the U.S. dollar has put in a major bottom but not for the reasons everyone else is pointing to.

Prechter points to three factors:

  • The Elliott Wave Pattern: Without getting too technical (for your sake and mine) Elliott Wave Theory looks at markets cycles in terms of wave structures that come in five parts. Five waves up followed by five waves down. Well, according to Prechter's research the pattern confirms we recently hit the fifth wave down. Next stop: up.
  • Sentiment has reached an extreme: "The Dollar Sentiment Index for the Dollar Index reports just 3% bulls among traders, an extreme level only five times in the past 20 years, usually near an important low," Prechter wrote on Aug. 5. "The last time we saw readings like this was March-July 2008, just before the dollar soared." In other words, the  "short the dollar" trade is overly crowded.
  • The biggest risk to the economy is deflation not inflation: As he lays out in his book, Conquer the Crash, Prechter thinks the bursting of the latest bubble will lead to a major economic depression.
As we discuss in forthcoming segments, this good news for the dollar spells bad news for most other asset classes including stocks, commodities and real estate.
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213 Comments

Elmer
Elmer - Tuesday August 11, 2009 07:58AM EDT

All my business costs are going up, I go to the store and prices are going. Plus inventories are down, Sorry if I do not see the risk of deflation. Yes the dollar index will go up because other countries made the same mistakes as we did since September 2008 but that does not mean we are not going to see inflation.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday August 11, 2009 07:58AM EDT

This is very interesting and I think Mr. Prechter is extremely spot on. I have been calling for a crash in gold and oil for sometime. I made a nice little six-figure trade shorting oil in 2008, maybe I can do it again in 2009. Good luck with your trading!

yogi9448
yogi9448 - Tuesday August 11, 2009 08:00AM EDT

The investment Guru's I listen to think the dollar has bottomed out to. Their opinion is based on some other indicators as well but they don't seee the dollar running up for as long as Mr. Prechter does........I am guessing Mr. Prechter believes the next major economic depression will have little to do with the US losing private sector/manufacturing jobs left and right, that we'll become a nation reliant on service industries/health care (for baby boomers) and Gov jobs. This scenario can only support itself for about 5 years before it hits a brick wall........Well at least the Feds are prepared for a potential meltdown, they'll have the latest in G5 jet's, still partying every Wednsday (let them eat cake), be exempt from single payer or Gov healthcare (only the best for the party leadership) and the beat in retirement plans (You better pay kickbacks to the Joker's Mafia faithful or else his media/acorn will character assassinate you and your business.

davo
davo - Tuesday August 11, 2009 08:00AM EDT

why does he need factors 2 and 3 ?

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday August 11, 2009 08:03AM EDT

Heck, even the shoeshine boys are in on the inflation trade!

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday August 11, 2009 08:04AM EDT

Can only say Prechter has no idea what he is talking about. The dollar is weak due to the printing of money, end of story.

- Tuesday August 11, 2009 08:06AM EDT

Lets face it, the central bankers control the forex. With all the debt in America the dollar should be a lot lower. This is a rigged game stay out.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday August 11, 2009 08:08AM EDT

Prechter's an original thinker and his ideas are worth consideration. Is the market recovering or are we just in a typically fierce bear market rally before plunging to new and deeper lows? We're in the early stages of a greater (by an order of magnitude than the last) depression (most economists think the "recession" is over). And, deflation (most analysts are wary of inflation), at least for some time, before possibly swtching over later to hyperinflation.

harshing_my_mellow@rocketmail.com
harshing_my_mellow@rocketmail.com - Tuesday August 11, 2009 08:09AM EDT

INFOMERCIAL

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday August 11, 2009 08:12AM EDT

WHAT ABOUT WEATHER FORECAST? THIS GURUS MAKE GOOD LIVING TO MISLEAD US AND TELL WHAT THEY ORDERED TO TELL FOR THEIR PAY.DIRTY JOB.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday August 11, 2009 08:13AM EDT

Robert Prechter is the anti-Peter Schiff. Which means he's wrong. The Fed is printing hundreds of billions of dollars out of thin air and he says we are at the start of a dollar bull market? Mr. Prechter...put the crack pipe down.

Charles
Charles - Tuesday August 11, 2009 08:17AM EDT

If you had followed Prechter's timing and advice over the last 15 years you wouldn't have any money left anyway!! But who knows THIS TIME he just might be right!!!

CAD-MAN
CAD-MAN - Tuesday August 11, 2009 08:23AM EDT

My crystal ball say's put your faith and invest in God...it will pay off 100 fold!

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday August 11, 2009 08:24AM EDT

BIG LIE. PREPARE HANDCART FOR MONEY. ZIMBABVE? CAN BE?

alan
alan - Tuesday August 11, 2009 08:25AM EDT

Time to surf the wave

taopraxis
taopraxis - Tuesday August 11, 2009 08:29AM EDT

Commercial real estate is in freefall. The banks are already getting desperate for another bailout and the states need bailing out, as well. Unfortunately, the people are tapped out. Therefore, the government will print money and borrow to make the bankers whole on their losses. This will exacerbate the extant economic weakness. The toxic combination of lower economic production and monetary expansion will eventually severely weaken the currency, basis gold. For those not positioned for a collapse in global fiat, my suggestion would be to buy gold on any rally in the dollar. Avoid foreign currencies, as all paper money will meet the same fate.

Celebrity Metallurgist
Celebrity Metallurgist - Tuesday August 11, 2009 08:29AM EDT

My dear friend, legendary oil and gas man and expert mining investor believes that Robert Prechter is WRONG. The dollar will not strengthen significantly, inflation wll soar - just because it is expected and the government knows it has the people's tacit support for such devaluation. Furthermore, the trade in precious metals is not over and chartist are right only about once in 20 years and this means that Prechter is overdue for a big win and is forcing it with this cockamamey theory. I don't subscribe to this creepy "strong dollar" contrarianism.

beach_bubba
beach_bubba - Tuesday August 11, 2009 08:31AM EDT

Prechter is like the schill that is in every three card monty game. NoBama is the dealer at the moment and a damned good one....it is fixed. you can't win nothing on this corner. Use your head(common sense) the dollar is f**ked. Gold is manipulated. but if you buy in on the dips...you should survive and make a few bucks.

cootiegiver
cootiegiver - Tuesday August 11, 2009 08:31AM EDT

The dollar has not bottomed. It will bottom at about half its current value, probably well into Obama's second term... Or maybe his third.

PacketeersATgmailDOTcom
PacketeersATgmailDOTcom - Tuesday August 11, 2009 08:33AM EDT

if you bought a stock in a company that suddenly issued a lot of new shares while you held it, it's likely the price of that stock would go down in lue of such equity dilution. this is exactly what is happening to the dollar as government prints them against trillions in new debt that some next generation will have to deal with. as soon as world economies who signs of real recovery, the dollar will crash as the reality of the lost of it's fiat value sets in. Prechter is a technician - and when a technician imposes his theories against fundamental reality, he is bound to be wrong.

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