Tuesday, November 24, 2009, 1:19AM ET - U.S. Markets open in 8 hours and 11 minutes.
With that prediction having come to pass, Prechter is now saying investors should "step aside" from long positions, and speculators should "start looking at the short side."
"The big question is whether the rally is over," Prechter says, suggesting "countertrend moves can be tricky" to predict. But the veteran market watcher is "quite sure the next wave down is going to be larger than what we've already experienced," and take major averages well below their March 2009 lows.
Yes, the late 2007-early 2009 market debacle was just a warm-up to what Prechter believes will be the bear market's main attraction. In this regard, he says the current cycle will echo past post-bubble periods such as America in the 1930s and England in the 1720s, after the bursting of the South Sea bubble.
The 2000 market peak market a "major trend change" for the market from a very long-term cycle perspective, and the downside is going to continue to be painful well into the next decade, Prechter says. "The extreme overvaluation, the manic buying and bubbles in the late 1990s [and] mid-2000s are for the history books - they're very large," he says. "The bear market is going to have balance that out with some sort of significant retrenchment."
No kidding!!!!!! Only an idiot buys into this market.
I'm still with the doom and gloom camp. The losers and whiners on this board will always be losers and whiners no matter what the market does....!
Even a broken clock is right twice a day...
Prechter is always wrong. Except for the times he's right. He's giving an opinion, perhaps worth about the same as yours and mine. But Elliott Wave is not completely bunk -- perhaps because it is now so widely understood. The whole idea behind technical analysis is so you don't have to look at fundamentals. How many of you got out of the tech bubble because of fundamentals (with some gut feeling and luck, I did, so maybe I can get on TT because I called it -- but I admit it was mostly luck...). I look at all TT interviews as points of view, with interesting and different analysis that I could never have done on my own. I don't throw a tantrum if I don't like it -- I just mentally shove it aside. Unfortunately, it seems like most comments here metaphorically represent the beer-bottle-throwing hooligans in the Country AND Western bar in the Blues Brothers movie. Or they represent the 1600's English courtroom where the crowd cheers the judge and jeers the always-guilty defendant. TT is great, but it might be time to pass on the comments...
Prechter carries some good points and has been right all along. If you like charts these ones are mind blowing. Prepare, it is coming! http://dshort.com/charts/bears/Dow-and-Now.gif http://dshort.com/charts/mega-bear-2000-comparisons.html?mega-bear-2000-quartet-extended
Fed will have good news to boost the market one last time. Then we start toward the lows again. I just hope I can recapture some of the 15% loss I was clubbed with in the past weeks. Still up 15% YTD (with this clubbing) but this one trade is killing me at the moment. I got greedy and didn’t take the 5% and now I have reversed 20% and im down 15%. Wish me luck I hope Bernanke says something phenomenal to turn that trade around.
Bookmark this page and remember this idiot a year from now.
Too far too fast (this current rally) suggests an overvaluation. To those who think that this will continue, what are we to believe? That the market will return to Dow 14,000 and we can just pretend like none of this ever happened?
Did he say when that next leg down would happen? NO! Did he say where the bottom would be? NO!
I agree that you would have to be an idiot to buy into this market! You would be surprised how many idoits are out there! I've not really followed Robert Prechter before, but he is worth listening to. He sounds like an extreme bear but in this market and when you consider the sad cases for consumer credit and real estate in our country (which are crucial to any recovery), you've to respect what he is saying.
Major buying opportunity : Ford @ 1 GE @ 5.5 Bank of America at 3 The list goes on...I guess he thinks it will be better than that... Bob how fast did the market go down??? What about the fundamentals? What if the recession is over? What if the dollar stays at the current levels? This period is like the South Sea Bubble???WTF???
bout time sum1 spoke the truth. and if tis happens.... http://www.liberty.edu/media/9980/attachments/healthcare_overview_obama_072909.pdf Katy bar the door!
There is too much at risk right now in terms of political programs. IF there is a correction, it is not going to be a big one like this guy predicts. The hedgies need to make back their money and the politicians have some controversial legislation to get passed before the end of year. What he is saying has some merit, it just is not going to happen as badly as he predicts.
If you had listened to the "experts" in December '08 and March '09, you would have missed one of the fastest 30% rise in the market EVER. Where is it going from here? The direction is about as sure as tossing a coin. If any of them were right most of the time, we'd all be following him/her like he/she were God. None of them are.
Sorry bs. Some sawtoothing... yes, back to March lows when everyone thought the world was ending..... no way.......I'll go further and predict a strong upward move in the last quarter as Q3 numbers etc come in
Three things to keep in mind: 1. The Federal Government removed all backing from the dollar, starting with Gold in the 30's, Silver in 1967 and even delivery of gold to other governments in the last decade. There is NOTHING to stop the Feds from inflating s much as they think they need to. 2. The economy is not "improving", it is just getting worse at a slower rate. The market never "bottomed" the way it did in the 30's, and the 70's with price to earnings ratios at about 7 and dividend yields of 4% or more. Why does anyone think the current market is different from the past similar Recessions/Depressions? 3. We still need to see the effects of foreclosures on the regional banks as the commercial and industrial sector hits the wall. This is a BEAR MARKET RALLY. Keep your Powder dry. Though inflation is a non-problem at present, that could change at the drop of a hat, or another Trillion Dollar incentive program
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Michael - Tuesday August 11, 2009 12:01PM EDT
Anyone else having problems with the video's?