Tuesday, November 24, 2009, 1:19AM ET - U.S. Markets open in 8 hours and 11 minutes.

Bob Prechter "Quite Sure" Next Wave Down Will Be Bigger and March Lows Will Break

Posted Aug 11, 2009 11:52am EDT by Aaron Task in Investing, Newsmakers
In late February, Robert Prechter of Elliott Wave International said "cover your shorts," and predicted a sharp rally that would take the S&P into the 1000 to 1100 range.

With that prediction having come to pass, Prechter is now saying investors should "step aside" from long positions, and speculators should "start looking at the short side."

"The big question is whether the rally is over," Prechter says, suggesting "countertrend moves can be tricky" to predict. But the veteran market watcher is "quite sure the next wave down is going to be larger than what we've already experienced," and take major averages well below their March 2009 lows.

Yes, the late 2007-early 2009 market debacle was just a warm-up to what Prechter believes will be the bear market's main attraction. In this regard, he says the current cycle will echo past post-bubble periods such as America in the 1930s and England in the 1720s, after the bursting of the South Sea bubble.

The 2000 market peak market a "major trend change" for the market from a very long-term cycle perspective, and the downside is going to continue to be painful well into the next decade, Prechter says. "The extreme overvaluation, the manic buying and bubbles in the late 1990s [and] mid-2000s are for the history books - they're very large," he says. "The bear market is going to have balance that out with some sort of significant retrenchment."

Go to Tech Ticker
438 votes|Recommend this

342 Comments

Michael
Michael - Tuesday August 11, 2009 12:01PM EDT

Anyone else having problems with the video's?

maicaray
maicaray - Tuesday August 11, 2009 12:02PM EDT

No kidding!!!!!! Only an idiot buys into this market.

Dog
Dog - Tuesday August 11, 2009 12:05PM EDT

I'm still with the doom and gloom camp. The losers and whiners on this board will always be losers and whiners no matter what the market does....!

The Gurl
The Gurl - Tuesday August 11, 2009 12:09PM EDT

Even a broken clock is right twice a day...

88
88 - Tuesday August 11, 2009 12:10PM EDT

a major idiot

yattaboy
yattaboy - Tuesday August 11, 2009 12:11PM EDT

Prechter is always wrong. Except for the times he's right. He's giving an opinion, perhaps worth about the same as yours and mine. But Elliott Wave is not completely bunk -- perhaps because it is now so widely understood. The whole idea behind technical analysis is so you don't have to look at fundamentals. How many of you got out of the tech bubble because of fundamentals (with some gut feeling and luck, I did, so maybe I can get on TT because I called it -- but I admit it was mostly luck...). I look at all TT interviews as points of view, with interesting and different analysis that I could never have done on my own. I don't throw a tantrum if I don't like it -- I just mentally shove it aside. Unfortunately, it seems like most comments here metaphorically represent the beer-bottle-throwing hooligans in the Country AND Western bar in the Blues Brothers movie. Or they represent the 1600's English courtroom where the crowd cheers the judge and jeers the always-guilty defendant. TT is great, but it might be time to pass on the comments...

Devin J
Devin J - Tuesday August 11, 2009 12:11PM EDT

Prechter carries some good points and has been right all along. If you like charts these ones are mind blowing. Prepare, it is coming! http://dshort.com/charts/bears/Dow-and-Now.gif http://dshort.com/charts/mega-bear-2000-comparisons.html?mega-bear-2000-quartet-extended

nick
nick - Tuesday August 11, 2009 12:12PM EDT

Fed will have good news to boost the market one last time. Then we start toward the lows again. I just hope I can recapture some of the 15% loss I was clubbed with in the past weeks. Still up 15% YTD (with this clubbing) but this one trade is killing me at the moment. I got greedy and didn’t take the 5% and now I have reversed 20% and im down 15%. Wish me luck I hope Bernanke says something phenomenal to turn that trade around.

Ed
Ed - Tuesday August 11, 2009 12:18PM EDT

Where do you get these pecan cases?

Alan
Alan - Tuesday August 11, 2009 12:18PM EDT

Bookmark this page and remember this idiot a year from now.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday August 11, 2009 12:20PM EDT

Too far too fast (this current rally) suggests an overvaluation. To those who think that this will continue, what are we to believe? That the market will return to Dow 14,000 and we can just pretend like none of this ever happened?

Alan
Alan - Tuesday August 11, 2009 12:20PM EDT

Did he say when that next leg down would happen? NO! Did he say where the bottom would be? NO!

Wiseguy
Wiseguy - Tuesday August 11, 2009 12:21PM EDT

I agree that you would have to be an idiot to buy into this market! You would be surprised how many idoits are out there! I've not really followed Robert Prechter before, but he is worth listening to. He sounds like an extreme bear but in this market and when you consider the sad cases for consumer credit and real estate in our country (which are crucial to any recovery), you've to respect what he is saying.

A Yahoo! abuser
A Yahoo! abuser - Tuesday August 11, 2009 12:21PM EDT

I agree with him.

Leslie
Leslie - Tuesday August 11, 2009 12:25PM EDT

Major buying opportunity : Ford @ 1 GE @ 5.5 Bank of America at 3 The list goes on...I guess he thinks it will be better than that... Bob how fast did the market go down??? What about the fundamentals? What if the recession is over? What if the dollar stays at the current levels? This period is like the South Sea Bubble???WTF???

__A_YAHOO_USER__
__A_YAHOO_USER__ - Tuesday August 11, 2009 12:25PM EDT

bout time sum1 spoke the truth. and if tis happens.... http://www.liberty.edu/media/9980/attachments/healthcare_overview_obama_072909.pdf Katy bar the door!

harshing_my_mellow@rocketmail.com
harshing_my_mellow@rocketmail.com - Tuesday August 11, 2009 12:32PM EDT

There is too much at risk right now in terms of political programs. IF there is a correction, it is not going to be a big one like this guy predicts. The hedgies need to make back their money and the politicians have some controversial legislation to get passed before the end of year. What he is saying has some merit, it just is not going to happen as badly as he predicts.

Vinny_the_hack
Vinny_the_hack - Tuesday August 11, 2009 12:36PM EDT

If you had listened to the "experts" in December '08 and March '09, you would have missed one of the fastest 30% rise in the market EVER. Where is it going from here? The direction is about as sure as tossing a coin. If any of them were right most of the time, we'd all be following him/her like he/she were God. None of them are.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday August 11, 2009 12:40PM EDT

Sorry bs. Some sawtoothing... yes, back to March lows when everyone thought the world was ending..... no way.......I'll go further and predict a strong upward move in the last quarter as Q3 numbers etc come in

Jonathan Christopher
Jonathan Christopher - Tuesday August 11, 2009 12:41PM EDT

Three things to keep in mind: 1. The Federal Government removed all backing from the dollar, starting with Gold in the 30's, Silver in 1967 and even delivery of gold to other governments in the last decade. There is NOTHING to stop the Feds from inflating s much as they think they need to. 2. The economy is not "improving", it is just getting worse at a slower rate. The market never "bottomed" the way it did in the 30's, and the 70's with price to earnings ratios at about 7 and dividend yields of 4% or more. Why does anyone think the current market is different from the past similar Recessions/Depressions? 3. We still need to see the effects of foreclosures on the regional banks as the commercial and industrial sector hits the wall. This is a BEAR MARKET RALLY. Keep your Powder dry. Though inflation is a non-problem at present, that could change at the drop of a hat, or another Trillion Dollar incentive program

Yahoo! reserves the right to refuse, or remove any comment that does not comply with the Yahoo! Terms of Service. The submission of spam, hateful, or obscene messages may result in the termination of your Yahoo! ID.
About Tech Ticker - Send FeedbackDisclaimer. Copyright © 2007 Yahoo! Inc. All rights reserved.
Copyright/IP Policy - Terms of Service - Privacy Policy - Help
Quotes delayed, except where indicated otherwise. Delay times are 15 mins for NASDAQ, NYSE and Amex. See also delay times for other exchanges.

Quotes and other information supplied by independent providers identified on the Yahoo! Finance partner page. Quotes are updated automatically, but will be turned off after 25 minutes of inactivity. Quotes are delayed at least 15 minutes for NASDAQ, NYSE and Amex. See also delay times for other exchanges. Real-Time continuous streaming quotes are available through our premium service. You may turn streaming quotes on or off. Fundamental company data provided by Capital IQ. Financials data provided by Edgar Online. Historical chart data and daily updates provided by Commodity Systems, Inc. (CSI). International historical chart data, daily updates, fund summary, fund performance, dividend data and Morningstar Index data provided by Morningstar, Inc. Analyst estimates data provided by Thomson Financial Network. All data provided by Thomson Financial Network is based solely upon research information provided by third party analysts. Yahoo! has not reviewed, and in no way endorses the validity of such data. Yahoo! and ThomsonFN shall not be liable for any actions taken in reliance thereon. All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only, not intended for trading purposes or advice. Neither Yahoo! nor any of independent providers is liable for any informational errors, incompleteness, or delays, or for any actions taken in reliance on information contained herein. By accessing the Yahoo! site, you agree not to redistribute the information found therein.