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Metal Mania: "Heavily Overbought" Gold & Silver Due for a Major Fall, Prechter Says

Posted Aug 11, 2009 01:19pm EDT by Aaron Task in Investing, Commodities
Gold has fallen sharply in recent days, but its supporters are undaunted: The yellow metal remains within earshot of its all-time high and is destined to soar as the dollar implodes, gold's bulls say.

As is often the case, Bob Precther, president of Elliott Wave International, takes the contrarian view, arguing there's "too much optimism" about precious metals and negativity around the dollar.

In fact, Prechter believes the dollar put in a major bottom last week and, as a result, foresees major weakness ahead for commodities generally, and gold and silver specifically. The precious metals are "heavily overbought" and the "path of least resistance" will be to the downside for many months, he says. "[Gold's] going to go much further [down] than people think."

Prechter predicts gold will follow silver's path, which has put in a series of lower highs in recent months.

"Even though people are one-sidedly bullish on precious metals, they're not making any progress at all," says the legendary market watcher. "I would not be loading up on gold at this point, you'll get a better opportunity later.

147 Comments

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday August 11, 2009 01:26PM EDT

We go through cycles of self-delusion.... Sometimes too giddy and Sometimes too glum...

Jon M
Jon M - Tuesday August 11, 2009 01:27PM EDT

This guy needs to have a talk with Peter Schiff. Fight to the death. I'm on Peter's side, but we all lose as we either get an inflationary depression or an deflationary depression. Pick your poison.

s.d.w.
s.d.w. - Tuesday August 11, 2009 01:32PM EDT

so we are printing money, and inflation is not coming? What happens when you have major contradictions?

Colbert
Colbert - Tuesday August 11, 2009 01:34PM EDT

Invest in guns, ammo, coffee, sugar, and non-perishable food and water. By the time King Obama finishes forcing his agenda down our throats, those items will be the new currency. Just save all your newly printed bills for toilet paper.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday August 11, 2009 01:39PM EDT

The liberty of the individual must be thus far be limited; He must not make himself a nuisance to other people.

Dave
Dave - Tuesday August 11, 2009 01:43PM EDT

Prediction is only half the battle. timing is the other half...

yattaboy
yattaboy - Tuesday August 11, 2009 01:44PM EDT

That blue suit -- kindof looks like the Air New Zealand 'paint-on' uniform. Hey Bob, whatcha wearin!

Ben
Ben - Tuesday August 11, 2009 01:46PM EDT

This mirrors the sentiment of many metals / commodity traders... Like to see the technical information that supports this. As people need cash, precious metals could definitely fall, but wonder if this would be in the short term (only). Longer term, unless the current money supply increase and monetization of the debt stop, it bodes well long term for metals. Wonder why no one seems to be mentioning that we seem to be building a dollar / T-Bill bubble, which if bursts, would leave all current options / manuevering null.

Aramis1951
Aramis1951 - Tuesday August 11, 2009 01:47PM EDT

Guns ? Ammo ? You'll last as long as it takes for somebody to show up who's a better, or luckier, shot than you are. In other words, about 30 seconds.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday August 11, 2009 01:49PM EDT

Casino economy talk - where are the fundamentals? Economy??? Jobs - unemployment - debt ratios etc... All chart analysis. Shifting economies makes analysis of this kind irrelevant - maybe in the short term, but medium to long term - earnings, jobs, production and trade (down 30%) are what indicate real value - fiscal and monetary policies that are out of control have consequences. Inflation is necessary to find equilibrium in today's over indebted consumer and government economy. That has to happen before any talk of a recovery is possible.

Aramis1951
Aramis1951 - Tuesday August 11, 2009 01:50PM EDT

Shut the hell UP, Bob ! You're a G/d Stopped Clock Syndrome MORON! Let's see you pay back all the money people have lost listening to your pixilated twaddle for the last 20 years. Then you can presume to be taken seriously, again.

Jerry
Jerry - Tuesday August 11, 2009 01:53PM EDT

He maybe right for many months, but is it just "penny wise, pound foolish".

Charles S
Charles S - Tuesday August 11, 2009 01:53PM EDT

I'm invested to a degree in gold and silver, but I do have some concerns. The US is printing money wildly, but so and perhaps to a greater degree are all the other major (except BRIC) countries. For that reason, and if stocks do go down from here, the dollar could be a safety trade, going up against the Euro, Yen, etc. Wouldn't gold and silver go down under such circumstances? Further, what if despite the excess money being printed, the economy goes into a W recession, i.e., another leg down? This could certainly delay inflation, and perhaps accelerate deflation.

Mike
Mike - Tuesday August 11, 2009 01:55PM EDT

OMG... gold and silver is the most 'pimped' commidity on the planet, every talk radio show is pimping it (because you can sell it without a securities license). The only people making money on metals are these pimping it... it's a joke. That train left the station over a year ago and only the suckers are still buying tickets. I heard a commercial today 'preaching' gold will raise another 1,000% ONE THOUSAND PERCENT! Biggest pump and dump i've ever heard.

taopraxis
taopraxis - Tuesday August 11, 2009 01:57PM EDT

Let's take a poll: Everyone ask a few of their friends, family, and acquaintances whether they have any cash in the form of dollars. Then, ask them how much *physical gold* they own in the form of bullion. Which represents the larger amount? Based upon my knowledge, most people own *nothing* in the way of gold bullion. In fact, very few of them would even know how to go about buying it. One of the local merchants said she thought it was *illegal* to own gold. Check bullion sales and divide by people. Most people have no gold beyond a few trinkets. The mean, median, and modal amounts of *physical gold bullion* possessed by ordinary people? *Zero*.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday August 11, 2009 01:57PM EDT

"Well began is half-done".... If we assume that change is going to be difficult, painful..... which creates a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Jerry
Jerry - Tuesday August 11, 2009 01:59PM EDT

Typical "penny-wise, dollar-foolish" advice.

Dave
Dave - Tuesday August 11, 2009 01:59PM EDT

Buy low sell high sell high cover low protect profit follow trend don't listen to anybody

Dave
Dave - Tuesday August 11, 2009 02:02PM EDT

It's the unknown that can't be predicted that will be the catalyst for rapid decline.. not the facts as we know them now...

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday August 11, 2009 02:07PM EDT

Gold is an inflation trade. You cannot print money forever and not bring about inflation. Its that simple. Where is the inflation you ask? It could take ten years to hit. But hit it will. Prechter is putting his faith in Charts to bet against gold and to his peril is ignoring the size of the national debt. Take a look at the national debt as it grows in real time at the following link: http://zfacts.com/p/461.html I think an $11 trillion dollar debt and growing is the most convincing reason to buy gold. So do many others. I'll leave the charts behind to comfort Prechter.

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