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One In Three Chance You'll Soon Owe More Than Your House Is Worth

Posted Aug 20, 2009 11:15am EDT by Henry Blodget

Foreclosure rates in the U.S. remain near record highs.  More than 13% of American homeowners with a mortgage are either behind on their payments or in foreclosure.  The latest report from the Mortgage Bankers Association, released today, shows the percentage of loans that entered the foreclosure process dipped slightly to 1.36%, down from an all-time high of 1.37% in the first quarter.

However, that number may soon rise again as mortgage delinquency rates continued to climb in the second quarter.

That news is no surprise to Karen Weaver of Deutsche Bank.  She startled everyone a few weeks ago when she predicted that, by 2011, nearly half of American mortgage holders would be underwater (meaning that they'll owe more on their mortgages than their houses were worth).

Half of mortgage holders means about one-third of American households. Put another way, Weaver forecasts 25 million mortgage holders will be under water by 2011, up from an estimated 14 million currently.

Aside from the mega-bummer of owing the bank more than your house is worth, underwater mortgages exacerbate another problem: foreclosures.  In previous housing busts, being underwater led to a greater likelihood of default, and Weaver believes this the foreclosure problem will be much worse this time around.

In a recent report, Weaver analyzed all the various kinds of mortgages in the US and estimated that 48% of them would be underwater by 2011.  This includes "prime" borrowers, of whom a startling 41% will be underwater.

Click here to see the details of Weaver's presentation.

See Also: Half Of US Mortgage Holders Will Be Underwater By 2011

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456 Comments

dumpweed
dumpweed - Thursday August 20, 2009 11:24AM EDT

American dream, fxxx yeah!

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday August 20, 2009 11:30AM EDT

He's wright

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday August 20, 2009 11:36AM EDT

I live in Southeast Asia. What are the chances I'll be underwater? Zero. Property taxes are almost nil. So glad I left Poohville...

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday August 20, 2009 11:38AM EDT

My neighbors just sold their condo for a healthy price. They said they had multiple people looking. Another unit in the community is also seeing heavy interest. At the end of the day, people need a place to live! Who cares whether I'm underwater in 2011. Tell me what my property will be worth in 5-10 years when I may want to sell. And by the way, where were these prognosticators 4 years ago when prices topped in a lot of markets? Given their inability to forecast the peak, it's highly unlikely the prognosticators on Wall St will be very good at predicting the timing and severity of the bottom.

taopraxis
taopraxis - Thursday August 20, 2009 11:38AM EDT

When the Soviet Union collapsed, we apparently adopted their system. Why? Maybe it is some sort of economic death wish to which people succumb. Zimbabwe is the canary in the gold mine, by the way.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday August 20, 2009 11:39AM EDT

HE'S WRIGHT.NO JOBS NO HOUSE.

Steve S
Steve S - Thursday August 20, 2009 11:47AM EDT

Yeah, bullshit.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday August 20, 2009 11:51AM EDT

This is pure speculation, misinforming and totally wrong - I hope if you are a large speculator and short trader like GS or Pimpco or DB you would be obliged to adhere to this advice. Too bad you can lie, call it news and free speech and get away with it. You almost know the truth is the opposite of this opinion - don't you see it where you live?

Bad
Bad - Thursday August 20, 2009 11:52AM EDT

Gosh, what a stupid article. Fact is, EVERYONE who has a home mortgage in any economy will owe more than their house is worth. (I hope that wasn't too harsh.) For example, factoring in interest payments, the amount you owe on your mortgage doubles in twelve years at 6%. So if you take a mortgage on a $170,000 home, when all is said and done, you will have paid in more than $340,000. Double DUH!

Steve S
Steve S - Thursday August 20, 2009 11:53AM EDT

Where do these wacko's come from anyway?

Ray
Ray - Thursday August 20, 2009 11:53AM EDT

Housing is not part of the GDP so we can have a underwater recovery and not even know we are homeless.

Steve
Steve - Thursday August 20, 2009 11:53AM EDT

OK. I have an issue here with the analysis. These are point in time type market snapshots of the values of real estate at any given moment based on prices that are driven low by a lack of transactions. Lack of transactions is driven by the tighter credit markets and at the moment the weak economy. However, if you own your house to live in and are not relocating due to a job change or selling due to other reasons like job losses then you may have a negative equity position ON PAPER. This only becomes important if you are going to sell or attempt to tap the equity. This is important to consider as it related to h what effect the "underwater" homeowners has on the overall economy.

WolfTalk101
WolfTalk101 - Thursday August 20, 2009 11:54AM EDT

If something bad in the mortgage market I hope it happens in the next 3 months.

Tex
Tex - Thursday August 20, 2009 11:55AM EDT

Whew! I thought she would say Texas is next.

Bad
Bad - Thursday August 20, 2009 11:55AM EDT

Gosh, what a stupid article. Fact is, EVERYONE who has a home mortgage in any economy will owe more than their house is worth. (I hope that wasn't too harsh.) For example, factoring in interest payments, the amount you owe on a 6% mortgage doubles in twelve years. So with a mortgage on a $170,000 home, when all is said and done, you will have paid in more than $340,000. Double DUH!

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday August 20, 2009 11:57AM EDT

My house is payed for so now they raised my taxes SOBs.

yogi9448
yogi9448 - Thursday August 20, 2009 11:59AM EDT

Damn it you negative fear mongers. Stop all this negative reporting. Uberliberals are in total charge of the US now. From now on you in the Prada will only report that everything is fine and dandy, ignore the issues behind the curtain......if the plan continues the primary house will be paid off by 2011, thanks for the fiscal responsibilty education Mom & Dad.

archie1338
archie1338 - Thursday August 20, 2009 12:00PM EDT

Underwater by 2011? How about already underwater. I think I might need an rather large extension to my snorkel so I can breathe 4 feet down. Sad part is that everyone can see when I fart. I might even consider getting some scuba gear. At least that would stimulate the economy.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday August 20, 2009 12:02PM EDT

Do they Really need to write an article like this? Don't we know this? Must be a slow news day. Let's get back to the 24 Hour Michael Jackson death coverage................

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday August 20, 2009 12:02PM EDT

Who cares! Our country is underwater right now!

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