Wednesday, February 10, 2010, 4:19AM ET - U.S. Markets open in 5 hours and 11 minutes.

Why Higher Oil Prices Haven't Saved the Solar Industry

Posted Sep 01, 2009 07:30am EDT by Aaron Task in Investing, Semiconductors, Commodities, Clean Tech
Alternative energy stocks, most notably solar names, were leaders when the broad market started rallying off the March lows. But the group has lagged the S&P 500 more recently, emphasizing the "risk" in risky assets.

Gordon Johnson, head of alternative energy research at Hapoalim Securities, says the group is lagging, and will continue to struggle into 2010, for several reasons:

  • Big government subsidies in China, Spain (since ratcheted down) and the U.S. (just getting started) led to massive overinvestment in the space.
  • Polysilicon manufacturers are still profitable even though prices have cratered in the past year, leading to yet more supply and disappointing results for many solar names.
  • Natural gas prices have plummeted to a 7-year low and solar demand is more closely correlated to natural gas prices vs. oil, which itself is still about 50% below last year's peak despite a significant rally this spring. (On Monday, crude futures tumbled 3.8% to $69.96 per barrel.) 

Johnson has been bearish on solar stocks for much of the year and remains negative on most of the big names in the space, as we discuss in greater detail in a forthcoming segment.

135 Comments

MikeD
MikeD - Tuesday September 01, 2009 07:48AM EDT

Or maybe solar is just overhyped, overinvested, and not even close to ready for primetime, financially speaking.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday September 01, 2009 07:58AM EDT

Oversupply is like flood. Debt is like the rock on the swimmers in the flood. Debt free will let them survive easier. Among all the players, only YGE has achieved debt free recently.

THE Second Amendment
THE Second Amendment - Tuesday September 01, 2009 08:05AM EDT

If this sector is so hot, why does it take tax payer subsidies to keep them in business?

THE Second Amendment
THE Second Amendment - Tuesday September 01, 2009 08:06AM EDT

If this sector is so hot, why does it take tax payer subsidies to keep them in business?

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday September 01, 2009 08:08AM EDT

NEXT BABBLE?

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday September 01, 2009 08:12AM EDT

How many of you geniuses that invest in solar technology truly understand solar technology? So, you hype the product like it is some kind of gift from God not realising the inefficiencies of the product. You then want to force government research to make the product cost-effective not realising government-funded research is essentially a retirement job for the recipients of the funds. All of a sudden, competing products become less expensive and more attractive! Hmmmmm. Since the embedded base is geared more towards fossile fuels, where do you think the majority of the attention is going to be focused? Now, hurry up and put your 10,000 solar panels on your roof and your 250 car batteries in your basement so that you can use your solar energy for 250% of what you would pay for fossil fuels. For an average American home at the same latitude as Germany, the average payback period for a solar-powered home is 20 YEARS!!! Even with all sorts of tax credits. Pumping up solar energy stocks does nothing to improve the technology.

Interesting
Interesting - Tuesday September 01, 2009 08:15AM EDT

Interesting that China is completing on average one 5 megawatt solar power plant per week. The good thing is they keep producing clean power for 25 years without any major cost other than cleaning. USA

Interesting
Interesting - Tuesday September 01, 2009 08:18AM EDT

China is completing one five million watt solar power plant per week. The good thing is these plants produce clean power for about 25 years without further input other than cleaning. USA invented solar electric power. Germany, Japan, China are the leaders in using the technology. Solar is economically viable for large installations. Solar is also economically viable for home hot water heating virtually anywhere in USA.

harveyd
harveyd - Tuesday September 01, 2009 08:19AM EDT

Lucrative Shysters is still the game in solar. How much more stable could an industry be? Every unit has a known price and a known output whether in Germany OR Spain. Common sense has still not hit the solar industry. When the shysters leave, the solar industry will flourish and consumers benefit!

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday September 01, 2009 08:20AM EDT

BLAH, BLAH, BLAH!!! What happend to little Timmy Gietner, our tax evader?

Interesting
Interesting - Tuesday September 01, 2009 08:23AM EDT

Is this an energy subsidy? The cost of the Iraq war to the taxpayer is equal to the cost of: ALL of the gasoline purchased by ALL American taxpayers for ALL of the years 2001+2002+2003+2004+2005+2006+2007 based on data in irs dot gov and doe dot gov and costofwar dot com That total to date exceeds all subsidies for all energy sources for all of history.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday September 01, 2009 08:29AM EDT

Interesting --- How much do you have deployed? What was your cost to install? How much of a State/Fed tax credit did you get? What is your investment payback period?

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday September 01, 2009 08:35AM EDT

Opinions are just that, The systems are expensive to build. Alternative materials must be found and the cost will be competitive.

Len T
Len T - Tuesday September 01, 2009 08:38AM EDT

Too many Chinese solar companies. OK its September when will the market tank?

Gerald
Gerald - Tuesday September 01, 2009 08:44AM EDT

This guest is very good.

Brian
Brian - Tuesday September 01, 2009 08:47AM EDT

Thanks to State and Federal credits and rebates I can get a $41,000 solar system for my house for only $13,300. What a deal. It pays for itself if I ever sell my house, or over 10 years if I just offset my electric bills.

mike p
mike p - Tuesday September 01, 2009 08:49AM EDT

Solar will eventually be profitable but it needs the investment in R&D that it is now getting. We aren't making any more oil so just because it's cheaper now doesn't mean it will be in the future. Besides, everyone here is talking about photovotalic solar when solar thermal is the large scale solution. Look at what Spain has done with solar towers. Just reflect the sun's rays at a tower and heat up water to produce steam for turbines. Power all the air conditioners with solar thermal during the day and then run the fossil fuel plants at night until a decent storage system becomes available.

kerry b
kerry b - Tuesday September 01, 2009 08:52AM EDT

Gordon Johnson obviously isn't quite as stupid as Tech Ticker, since he understands that oil doesn't have muc to do with electricity prices, given the fact that WE DON'T PRODUCE ELECTRICITY USING OIL THESE DAYS. However, Gordon did link natural gas prices to oil prices and therefore assumed a positive correlation between the price of natural gas and oil and, of course, electricity. However, Gordan must be thinking of some country other than the US if he thinks we use a lot of natural gas to produce electricty. We don't. We produce 1 1/2 times more electricity using nuclear than natural gas and more than three times more energy using coal. So Gordan may be smarter than Tech Ticker (Who isn't?), but he still is pretty lacking in expertise on the energy sector. Isn't he supposed to be an energy sector analyst? What company does he work for, so I can avoid same.

AviM
AviM - Tuesday September 01, 2009 08:53AM EDT

MikeD, you are more than correct. Moreover, for variety of technical and economical reasons Solar is not poised to repalce oil or nat gas for the next 20 years or so. So thoese who invest in it - and in CleanTech - are writing their money on ice. It will all soon melt down. Cheers for Fears.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday September 01, 2009 08:57AM EDT

Whatever you come up with..until you can attach it to your own house..you will not save any money. Someone else will make money from you..green fans.

Yahoo! reserves the right to refuse, or remove any comment that does not comply with the Yahoo! Terms of Service. The submission of spam, hateful, or obscene messages may result in the termination of your Yahoo! ID.
About Tech Ticker - Send FeedbackDisclaimer. Copyright © 2007 Yahoo! Inc. All rights reserved.
Copyright/IP Policy - Terms of Service - Privacy Policy - Help
Quotes delayed, except where indicated otherwise. Delay times are 15 mins for NASDAQ, NYSE and Amex. See also delay times for other exchanges.

Quotes and other information supplied by independent providers identified on the Yahoo! Finance partner page. Quotes are updated automatically, but will be turned off after 25 minutes of inactivity. Quotes are delayed at least 15 minutes for NASDAQ, NYSE and Amex. See also delay times for other exchanges. Real-Time continuous streaming quotes are available through our premium service. You may turn streaming quotes on or off. Fundamental company data provided by Capital IQ. Financials data provided by Edgar Online. Historical chart data and daily updates provided by Commodity Systems, Inc. (CSI). International historical chart data, daily updates, fund summary, fund performance, dividend data and Morningstar Index data provided by Morningstar, Inc. Analyst estimates data provided by Thomson Financial Network. All data provided by Thomson Financial Network is based solely upon research information provided by third party analysts. Yahoo! has not reviewed, and in no way endorses the validity of such data. Yahoo! and ThomsonFN shall not be liable for any actions taken in reliance thereon. All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only, not intended for trading purposes or advice. Neither Yahoo! nor any of independent providers is liable for any informational errors, incompleteness, or delays, or for any actions taken in reliance on information contained herein. By accessing the Yahoo! site, you agree not to redistribute the information found therein.