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Kill the Oil Speculators: Raise Margin Requirements, Force Physical Delivery

Posted Jul 01, 2008 11:54am EDT by Aaron Task in Investing, Commodities

Here we go again...

The great debate over speculation vs. fundamentals is back on Tuesday after the IEA issued a report warning of "tight" supply and a "negligible" OPEC cushion. On the other hand, OPEC president Chakib Khelil worried about the "security of demand", and other OPEC officials declared supply to be ample at the World Petroleum Congress in Madrid.

Scott Bleier, president of HybridInvestors.com, is firmly in the "blame the speculators" camp, arguing crude would be closer to $80 instead of $140 if not for the role of financial vs. physical demand. Bleier joins a growing list of Tech Ticker guests arguing that oil is in a bubble driven by speculative demand.

Bleier's "solution" to the problem of $140 oil is to force speculators to take physical delivery of oil -- vs. just trading futures contracts -- and to raise margin requirements on commodity speculators.

I can't argue with those recommendations, and Bleier and I also agree that legislation aimed at banning speculation and/or prohibiting pension funds from investing in commodities is wrong-headed and anti-American.

Still, I continue to believe fundamentals explain the bulk of oil's surge in recent years: Demand is rising faster than supply, and major oil producers are either unable to raise production because of supply constraints, or unwilling because of resource nationalism.

As with most debates, there's no "black or white" answer to the speculators vs. fundamentals question, as BP CEO Tony Hayward declared: "Speculators believe in the fundamentals... the era of cheap oil is over as expanding economies like China and India are boosting demand."

92 Comments

anwar s
anwar s - Tuesday July 01, 2008 12:06PM EDT

Its time the world bans oil speculations. Crude is the driving force for any economy and the rising crude has seriously hurt sentiments around the world.

heretic 2
heretic 2 - Tuesday July 01, 2008 12:07PM EDT

Oil will correct itself once the dollar becomes stronger....and that is the only answer right now.

sid
sid - Tuesday July 01, 2008 12:14PM EDT

Folks in the fundamentals camp have obviously never been burned by a shill at a public auction, and isn't that what the commodities market is?.

Solar Company
Solar Company - Tuesday July 01, 2008 12:16PM EDT

Here is the solution: www.qtww.com

thomas
thomas - Tuesday July 01, 2008 12:18PM EDT

What a joke. That would take away the ability to hedge for farmers, transportation companies, etc. Oil trades in dollars. The weaker dollar, geopolitical issues, and Econ 101 (demand greater than supply) are to blame. Stand next to any American highway...how many people are driving alone?

treydur
treydur - Tuesday July 01, 2008 12:19PM EDT

noone is making more money off energy than gov't via taxes right now. noone, not oil companies & not speculators. if the gov't really meant what it says it would go to a fixed tax on energy instead of a % of unit price.

Steve
Steve - Tuesday July 01, 2008 12:20PM EDT

The supply and demand reason for oil prices being so high is BS. Demand hasn't increased 100% since last year and the supply has not decreased by 100% so why has the price of a barrel of oil went up 100%? Oil speculators are making a killing at the expense of all of the world economies. I am a libertarian, but something has got to be done to get this under control. There are more reasons why the price can go up and down, but I firmly believe that speculation and of course the weak dollar are to blame. The weak dollar enables people trading in other currencies to buy more long oil contracts which drives up the price. I drive a 2000 Toyota Celica which is getting me an average of about 31.5 miles to the gallon and gas is still killing me financially because the cost of food and almost every other service has risen because of the rise in oil.

Bob
Bob - Tuesday July 01, 2008 12:20PM EDT

buy gold dump the dollar.......

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday July 01, 2008 12:22PM EDT

The margin requirement, and the consequences should be explained to the average JOE. Then he / she will pressure Washington to control the major investment bankers. They should also know how equities were trading at 3 % margin by the major bankers too, hence the bubble. Good deduction by Scott Bleier. Now the senators and congressmen will have to be pressured to act, and not listen to lobbyists from the major trading houses.

Ray Fun Relax
Ray Fun Relax - Tuesday July 01, 2008 12:23PM EDT

If Scott Bleier is so sure it's a bubble (like Real Estate) was why doesn't he join the Speculator and short it. He'll become a Billionaire in a year.

TomS
TomS - Tuesday July 01, 2008 12:23PM EDT

Speculation is clearly in the interest of the few, not the many. With world starvation, transportation and heating in the balance it would behoove governments to at least consider some market control. It isn't Anti American to pay attention to how markets operate and induce legal controls where necessary. Who would argue the government should let the housing market work without oversight? American consumption is currently down a million barrels per day. And yet with a tad amount of leadership America could reduce consumption another million barrels.

Ray Fun Relax
Ray Fun Relax - Tuesday July 01, 2008 12:24PM EDT

If Scott Bleier is so sure it's a bubble (like Real Estate) then why doesn't he join the Speculators and short it. He'll become a Billionaire in a year.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday July 01, 2008 12:24PM EDT

Another approach that would be easy is to raise taxes on income derived on speculation profits.

David T
David T - Tuesday July 01, 2008 12:24PM EDT

as with gold, silver and copper, the speculators drove the price to unreasonable dollar amounts. In the long run, adjustments will be made (5 to 7 years) though these speculators catalyze inflation and the cost of living. They will drive and dump off by utilizing puts, stops and internal finacing to minimize their risks at cost of others. So it is the American way of free enterprise, though to purchase a contract of oil, gas, silver, gold is minimal and risk minimal if safe guards are placed in. Increase the cost of a option contract a maximize the risk. This will tie up funds and increase risk in the market place. Shorten the contract span and abiliy to bid on out laying months almost on spot pricing. Think about it.

rsahr
rsahr - Tuesday July 01, 2008 12:24PM EDT

Ban oil speculation? It sucks when some of us have to pay for the ignorance of others. It's a great looking boogey man though.

- Tuesday July 01, 2008 12:24PM EDT

Seems implausible that this spike is demand driven. Oil started to skyrocket in tandem with the subprime crisis. Money moved out of stocks, into commodities.

Tony
Tony - Tuesday July 01, 2008 12:24PM EDT

This is a bunch of CRAP - Oil is this high because of the Futures Market - the speculators are doing this. All this hype about more demand by China or India - Hey way back years ago do you remember when there where long gas lines - have you seen any lines today ? Or how about getting gas on Odd and Even days, do yo see any of that - NO, or how about when was the last time you saw a plastic garbage can bag over a gas pump and the station was closed becasue there as no gas - Haven't see it yet - THERE IS NO SHORTAGE, THERE IS PLENTY OF GAS/OIL - when all that was happining gas never took such drastic increases in such a short period of time. As far a cheap gas pricies and Euorpe pays more -= well how much of the coat of gas is TAXES to fund their HelathCare Program or other Scocial Servicse such as Soscial Secutrity that is why European Nations pay more for gas then we do - Oil companies are making record profits, if they where only passing on the increases they had to pay fo the oil then thier profit would not be at such a record high. IT IS THE SPECULATORS that are causing all this and the govermnet should step in and stop this instaed of just talking about it. by the time they finish talking it will go up another dollar a gallon -

joej
joej - Tuesday July 01, 2008 12:25PM EDT

The oil problem is in part due to the early bungling of Iraq War by Rummie and Bush believing that they could win the thing on the cheap and by not introducing an proper level of force to quash resistence and to get on with the business of extracting oil from under Iraq. We would have had 4 million more barrels of oil per day coming into the worlds economic system if not for lack of commitment by Washington. Now the Global system is on verge of collapse. Great going WASHINGTON Congressman and Senators of both parties and to the White House and then Pentagon higher ups thinking they KNEW IT ALL. Most of the blame for the oil crisis can go to SUV driving Hollywood and Washington liberials who propagandized the war and wore the public down with their bitter backbiting!!!!

MalayN
MalayN - Tuesday July 01, 2008 12:25PM EDT

Crude oil is essential commodity. There should not be any futur trading on it. Future trading is resulting in unncessary price rise. It hurts more when we learn that there is no gap in demand and supply. May be we can ban the future trading on it instead of killing the speculators.

Steven
Steven - Tuesday July 01, 2008 12:25PM EDT

Why does nobody take a close look at the excesses of Congress and the Fed? They are far more to blame for oil prices than speculators ever could be. We should cut spending, lower taxes and strengthen the dollar. Prices will then correct.

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