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100 Percent Cash: Is Todd Harrison Raving Mad, or Just Foxy?

Posted Jul 02, 2008 02:20pm EDT by Aaron Task in Investing, Recession

Todd Harrison, founder and CEO of Minyanville.com, generated a firestorm last week when he declared his long-term cash account to be 100% in cash.

This comment, from Yahoo! Finance user "odgoggmg," typified the response among the Tech Ticker community: "If you are EVER 100% cash, it's pretty much admitting that you don't know what's going on or how to profit from it. If you do fall into that scenario, the last thing you should be doing is giving advice." In the accompanying video, Harrison explains his rationale for being ultra-conservative in his long-term account (while still trading his short-term "bucket" from both the long and short side).

In a nutshell, Harrison believes we are heading for a "prolonged period of socioeconomic malaise," and investors need to shift their focusing from "chasing performance" to capital preservation.

114 Comments

madmilker
madmilker - Wednesday July 02, 2008 02:44PM EDT

Mad and Foxy spells.....smart!

Timothy
Timothy - Wednesday July 02, 2008 02:58PM EDT

wise

Elizabeth E
Elizabeth E - Wednesday July 02, 2008 03:02PM EDT

What!? He doesn't want to loose it all?! thats maddening!

Peter
Peter - Wednesday July 02, 2008 03:02PM EDT

Funny watching these kids baffled by their first true bear market.

madmilker
madmilker - Wednesday July 02, 2008 03:10PM EDT

"tarbaby951"...i wus gonna type tat but understood we couldn't use 4 letter words on this site! you smart too!

Daffyskater
Daffyskater - Wednesday July 02, 2008 03:18PM EDT

We've had a bear market this ENTIRE DECADE. Its not like this is the first one, most prognosticators were saying 2002 was just like 1974. granddad just doesn't remember what things were like.

Steve
Steve - Wednesday July 02, 2008 03:19PM EDT

He's right. We are in for some pain. I don't think a recovery in 5 years is realistic. It took 25 years for the stock market to recover from the depression. We are levered MUCH higher today.

GoPat
GoPat - Wednesday July 02, 2008 03:24PM EDT

100% cash at 2% rate. he is MAD!

TonyV
TonyV - Wednesday July 02, 2008 03:25PM EDT

I've been watching this guy and his crappy Minyan website for a while. I think he's a scumbag. I don't think he's in cash. I think he is shorting stocks. That's why he wants others to sell their stocks. Only an idiot would be in cash near the bottom of the market. Apparently he believes in buying high and selling low. That's a great way to miss future rallies. He's either an idiot or just another Wall Street scumbag.

TonyV
TonyV - Wednesday July 02, 2008 03:25PM EDT

I've been watching this guy and his crappy Minyan website for a while. I think he's a scumbag. I don't think he's in cash. I think he is shorting stocks. That's why he wants others to sell their stocks. Only an idiot would be in cash near the bottom of the market. Apparently he believes in buying high and selling low. That's a great way to miss future rallies. He's either an idiot or just another Wall Street scumbag.

GoPat
GoPat - Wednesday July 02, 2008 03:28PM EDT

socioeconomic malaise? More like a mediaeconomic malaise.

davids
davids - Wednesday July 02, 2008 03:33PM EDT

I thought I was conservative with 60% cash. It has served me well this last year with 20% in Cmgfx ans 20% in commodities.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday July 02, 2008 03:37PM EDT

My compliments to Mr. Harrison. Not only is he brave to expound his views in this financial environment, but it appears that he may be wise as well. History may NOT repeat itself exactly, but it does tend to follow previous patterns. With sincere apologies to Galbraith, who has written several wonderful works that touch on this topic, - - - - speculative excesses lead to bubbles that break. There is a long history of such events, but each succeding generation finds some rationale for denying that it might happen again. Thank you.

Kevin
Kevin - Wednesday July 02, 2008 03:41PM EDT

So, we should avoid ALL domestic large-cap, mid-cap, and small-cap stocks, foreign stocks, commodities, real estate, bonds, etc.?!? The market is pretty reasonably priced right now overall. Some companies are doing quite well. We are a long way from the great depression here. Perhaps stocks will "only" produce ~5% annually over the next 10 year period, but that's much better than cash. Waiting for a recovery before getting back in is a euphemism for "buy high".

TonyV
TonyV - Wednesday July 02, 2008 03:44PM EDT

And by the way, there are always stocks that do well in bad markets. Apparently this guy is saying that he has no idea how to pick them EVEN THOUGH HE RUNS A STOCK WEBSITE.

Stan
Stan - Wednesday July 02, 2008 03:45PM EDT

Staying in cash with the USD devalued 30% since 2000? I agree with the CASH part, but my YEN and AUSSIE dollars look a LOT STRONGER than USD. Stay in cash sure - but chose a currency backed by a country with sound fiscal policy. Wait 'til this 9 trillion $$ interest payments ramp up then watch out USD ! The ONLY solution is , like the Vietnam War Debt, to pay it back in devalued dollars. 50% devalued by 2010? Could happen. THEN what happend to your CASH position? You preserved 1/2 of your capital?

__A_YAHOO_USER__
__A_YAHOO_USER__ - Wednesday July 02, 2008 03:53PM EDT

the indexes are screwing us with their alleged performance. they regularly replace the worst with the best performing new stocks. if one would replace his beloved wife every year with a younger one, his wife would never ever get old! got me?

sams
sams - Wednesday July 02, 2008 03:56PM EDT

WRONG!! It's shows that he knows for sure that he's right and everyone else is wrong. And he's got the courage of his convictions to stand up and say so. DERIVATIVES ARE DEAD MEAT.

A
A - Wednesday July 02, 2008 03:57PM EDT

A little slow my advisor has been suggesting tbills for sometime... http://www.ltadvisors.net/Info/SmarterAlternative.htm

martin
martin - Wednesday July 02, 2008 03:58PM EDT

Im 100% in cash too, been there since the dow was at 13500, because I listen to Todd and Mish. We are headed for a depression. Will the Fed destroy the dollar trying to save itself and its banker buddies, maybe, but assets will fall a long way before that occurs.

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