Tuesday, December 15, 2009, 5:28PM ET - U.S. Markets Closed.
In the past six months, Aaron and I have talked a lot about the similarity between the rally of early 1930 and the one we're having today.
The early 1930 rally came after the market had fallen nearly 50% in the fall of 1929. The spring rally took the market up nearly 50% again, to a level that was only about 20% below the previous peak.
That rally, of course, was also the biggest sucker's rally in history. After the market peaked in April 1930, it crashed again, eventually ending up down 89% from the 1929 high and more than 80% from the 1930 high. The market did not reach the 1930 high again for another quarter of a century.
Our current rally came after a crash that was actually slightly more severe than the 1929 crash (53% versus 48%). It has taken the market up more than 50% from the low. Our current rally has also lasted slightly longer than the 1930 rally did.
Today's rally, of course, may actually be the start of a great new bull market, one that will climb the "wall of worry" back toward the previous record highs. On the other hand, it may yet also be another version of what happened in 1930.
We won't know for sure what today's market is until we look at it with the genius of 20/20 hindsight. As yet another reminder of how similar the patterns up to this point have been, check out this excellent compilation of New York Times clippings from early 1930 put together by Dan Alpert of Westwood Capital.
Dan's complete compilation is contained in a broader research piece, which is embedded at the end. The slides below contain excerpts from February-April, 1930:
The Greatest Sucker's Rally In History, Play By Play
SUCKERS won't be identified until Nov or Dec.
Yes, the suckers who forgot to buy in March are really sorry. Go back to November to see the first drop, then a sucker rally, then the double dip in March. We will not have another 1930 crash because FDIC protected deposits, the government spent this time instead of cutting spending as Hoover did and we kept the major banks open in 2009, (not that they deserved it) unlike Hoover who allowed them to crash, taking us to 25% unemployment. Not to worry, the Republicans will get in office again some day, deregulate everything, and we will crash again.
These guys are the worst nabobs of negativity in the business. They never inquire, they always pronounce, and their outlook is always jaundiced, whether the subject is the economy, the future, or our (terrific) president. Give it a rest, nabobs.
Yes, we should call it the Taxpayers rally because without the bailout money there would not be a rally. Our economy is upside down because Wall St. is anticipating a recovery with money that was involuntarily provided by the taxpayers to the financials. If the stimulus was put into the hands of the country instead of the few connected conies this would be a real recovery and not just a temporary psychological investor/trader fix. VOTE OUT the INCUMBENTS in 2010.
Elizabeth, this is the big one! I'm coming to see ya'...........Fred Sanford
As long as we have the current government expansionist spending mentality in DC, regardless of the political party in power, there will be no permanent recovery. It's so easy a caveman can understand it. It's simple arithmetic Cut taxes, shrink the size of government = expansion of economy, more jobs, bull market. Why is this so hard to understand? The reason the 1930s depression lasted so long is because the government expanded at the same time, which turned a recession into a depression.
Of course it is!!! This rally is smoke and mirrors!!! As long as unemployment is high there will be a recession.
Hey Gang! It is always nice to see these guys do the fire side chat. I'm not concerned about the suckers rally. I have no issue with the markets dropping from here. If they do drop, I would love to buy some bargain basement deals. Wouldn't you? Buy on the pullback when one comes! Right?...Right! Smiles...Buy now and risk is king on the upside as well as down. Dollar cost average and mash your own potatoes...Fun! Good luck! Later gang...more SMILES...!
If our national debt was a credit card bill and we had to make the minimum payment, we'd all hang ourselves. Since it is not, it will be left for future generations to deal with. Thank you George W Bushleague and Obama Bin Ladin.
Let's see, SUMMARY: up to down with neutral overtones.
I didn't buy in March and I don't care because I sold all in Apr 07. I'll think about going back in when we get real capitulation. Until then, I can wait. I'm too old. Maybe I'll never get back in.
Those of us in Real Estate Haven't Seen a Suckers' Rally. In Fact, The depressionary deflation has grown stronger, even in Non-Cyclical Markets (i.e., Markets that never had a bubble, OK, AR, TX). Commercial RE, Sure. But Default and Should-Be Foreclosed inventories are so massive there is no hope.
Do you all know who is writing this ? Check a quick wiki write up or the sec site LOL
What a stupid term, "sucker's rally." What kind of rally was it when people were flipping houses and getting liar's loans? What kind of rally was it when Bear Stearns croaked? That's when we were suckers. Not now, at least not for the time being.
From today's financial news: "E-trade said it ended August with more than 2.7 million brokerage accounts, a record." Yep, there you have it, evidence that suckers are being drawn into this rally to be fleeced.
There's always a risk that something could go wrong. That's the nature of the market. So: (1) The market is going to go down. (2) The market is going to go sideways. OR (3) The rally continues. Depending on how much risk one is willing to take, will decide what to do next. One could sit on the sidelines, put their money in the bank and years later regret that they didn't put it in the market when it was at an all time low. So, give it your best guess and good luck.
Bernanke says Recession "very likely over' is this the same man who said toxic assets were contained back in March ?
Wall Street is only getting richer on paper.
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Larry - Tuesday September 15, 2009 01:28PM EDT
Let me see. Might go up - might go down. Wish I had written it!