iPhone Sales Stunted? No, Apple Can Still Hit 10mm

What, Apple under commit and over deliver? Nah.....never happens.

Wow, an article based on logic and sound assumptions. Obviously not a Fortune piece.

a very good report

I find it impossible to accept Toni S.'s figures as they contradict themselves. He projects lower sales for fy2008 and cy2008 but if you examine his projections for both of these (6.9M fy 2008) and (7.9M cy2008), figuring in what we already know, (2.3M sold for q1, fy 2008), his own numbers here point to 3.25M units sold in 1q fy2009 (which is the final quarter of cy 2008 (ending Dec 2008). So how is it that the iPhone is slowing sales but smashing sales records by 1M units? It makes no sense and it appears he's rigging numbers for a hidden purpose.

This stupid "Apple Specialist" Bernstein has been trying to depress apple's stock since the beginning of 2008. Look for yourself. Here's some other comments he has made. Let's take a look at the "Apple Specialist". He said on 1/10/07 " To reach the 10 million-handset mark, Apple will have to convince "consumers to spend dramatically more on an enhanced handheld computing experience. We do not think this is a slam-dunk," Bernstein Research's Toni Sacconaghi wrote Wednesday. He noted that there is a "tiny" market for phones and smartphones selling above $300. "Apple's phones will not only be priced at $499 and $599, but appear to require an unlimited data plan, meaning that service will cost $80 plus per month (and $2,500 for two years!)" he wrote. He said on 1/4/07 At least that’s what Bernstein Research analyst Toni Sacconaghi thinks. The analyst revealed that Apple had not yet received U.S. regulatory approval for the phone, a fact that greatly reduces the probability that Apple would introduce the music-playing cell phone at its annual expo in San Francisco. San Francisco “Apple has not yet received FCC approval for a phone, and our analysis suggests that phones have typically become available two months after FCC approval,” Mr. Sacconaghi wrote Thursday in a report. “It is possible that Apple could introduce the product, and set a future availability date, but we think this represents a low probability.” On 9/10/07 he said "Despite Apple's statement that iPhone sales are on track, [the] price cut appears to suggest that sales have been more sluggish than expected," says Bernstein Research analyst Toni Sacconaghi. Data from the analytical firm iSuppli suggest that Apple sold roughly 200,000 units in July, but it must average about 243,000 a month to hit the company's goal of one million units by the end of September, Sacconaghi calculates. They actually sold 1.325 mil be the end of Q3. This guys is a tool, and if I was a journalist and used his "findings", I feel like my editor would ask me to resign.

Apple never said they would sell 10 million in 2008, they said BY THE END OF 2008. Look it up. Toni is a tool and has been depressing the stock at least since the beginning of 2007 that I've found. I'll post what I've found next.

He noted that there is a "tiny" market for phones and smartphones selling above $300. "Apple's phones will not only be priced at $499 and $599, but appear to require an unlimited data plan, meaning that service will cost $80 plus per month (and $2,500 for two years!)" he wrote.

He said on 1/4/07 At least that’s what Bernstein Research analyst Toni Sacconaghi thinks. The analyst revealed that Apple had not yet received U.S. regulatory approval for the phone, a fact that greatly reduces the probability that Apple would introduce the music-playing cell phone at its annual expo in San Francisco.

Apple has not yet received FCC approval for a phone, and our analysis suggests that phones have typically become available two months after FCC approval,” Mr. Sacconaghi wrote Thursday in a report. “It is possible that Apple could introduce the product, and set a future availability date, but we think this represents a low probability.” On 9/10/07 he said "Despite Apple's statement that iPhone sales are on track, [the] price cut appears to suggest that sales have been more sluggish than expected," says Bernstein Research analyst Toni Sacconaghi. Data from the analytical firm iSuppli suggest that Apple sold roughly 200,000 units in July, but it must average about 243,000 a month to hit the company's goal of one million units by the end of September, Sacconaghi calculates.

They actually sold 1.325 mil be the end of Q3. This guys is a tool, and if I was a journalist and used his "findings", I feel like my editor would ask me to resign.

Great Article! It's easy to underestimate the power of Apple's desktop and laptop sales. I think that this is where the surprising good news will come from. Iphone is languishing a bit, but it is still a device in it's infancy. No doubt a new version will be released this year and Apple seldom disappoints, I mean no one thinks that the next iPhone will be as much of a disappointment as Vista was. This company has a pretty good track record when it comes to delivering the goods and steadily improving and updating the product line. Unlike some other overhyped tech companies that dominate the market with mediocrity and are losing ground.

Steve Jobs said 10 million total iPhones by the end of 2008. That would include all phones sold since launch date (June 2007) until December 31, 2008. You're just counting 2008 in your 9.3 million (180,000 x 52).

The mistake here is when people base the iPhone future on the iPod past simply because they are both Apple products. iPod was a product that came in a fragmented mp3 market with no strong players. iPhone is coming into a market with many deep pocketed, well established competitors. I mean, look at what happened to Motorola and the razor. Cutting egde and hot, now a me too product. The same may happen to iPhone over the next year or two. There is more downside than upside possible here.

Verbatim from the Macworld 2007 keynote: "One percent market share equals 10 million units. This is a giant market. If you... just one percent market share, you're going to sell 10 million phones. And this is exactly what we're going to try to do in 2008, our first full year in the market. Is grab 1% market share and go from there. So, we're going to enter a very competitive market. A lot of players. We think we're going to have the best product in the world. And we're going to go for it and see if we can get 1% market share, 10 million units in 2008 and go from there." http://www.apple.com/quicktime/qtv/mwsf07/

WITH THEIR MENTALITYOF PROFIT SHARING, APPLE iPHONE WILL NEVER BE A FAVORITE OF MINE.

Apple/AAPL is done! iFLOP has been a disappointment from the beginning and will continue to be a disappointment. The "future" of Apple will remind us of the past(pre-iPod). The only statistic that has surprised on the upside WRT the iphone was when they sold the 1st million before the end of Sept. '07. Funny how that was an upside surprise since the biggest chearleader out there, Gene Munster, predicted 700k in the first 3 days. After 6 months of RELENTLESS hyping, they only managed 270k in the first 2 days and a bunch of them were only sold to make a quick buck on EBAY, another losing proposition for iphone hypesters. They just missed full year'07 sales, they reduced prices by $200.00 after 73 days on the market, the China Mobile deal was nixed, RIMM has been eating their lunch and the competition is getting stronger and stronger. But, somehow, the genious at Apple who removed computer from the name, is relying on the Mac to propel future earnings. Apple, and all it's reliance on discretionary(wastefull) income, is done!

hey joe_mama: definition of a tool: someone that posts comments on the same article 18 times! get a life, man.

They try to knock AAPL down every year in the second quarter because it is seasonally slow. But the stock always proves them wrong by years end!

Thanks for providing the quote from MacWorld, Daniel. Jobs did say 10 million "in" 2008 then. I stand corrected. Though I think there is some confusion because of article titles like "Apple’s 10 million iPhone sales target by end of 2008."

where do sacconaghi consider the outstanding consumer satisfaction index of iphone users? is publicly known that it achieve more than 75 % of satisfaction among users...more than double of competition...so why would apple do not achieve it goal? this story reminds me the same stupid coments about ipod during 2004/2005 period...and here we are with ipod selling welll above 100M units...and with more than 70%market share...come on guys why don't you analyze things more seriously...finally regarding unblocked units that would be a problem if Apple had limited capacity...if not they have to be consider incremental sales...