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iPhone Sales Stunted? No, Apple Can Still Hit 10mm

Posted Feb 25, 2008 10:01am EST by Dan Frommer in Investing, Internet, Products and Trends

From Silicon Alley Insider, Feb. 25, 2008:

jobs-iphone-market-share.jpgA scary thought for Apple (AAPL) investors, courtesy of Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi: Apple's Steve Jobs may miss his iPhone sales prediction of 10 million units in 2008.

Barron's Eric Savitz summarizes a transcript from a recent Bernstein conference call. Key stats: During the busy December quarter, Apple sold about 180,000 iPhones per week. Annualized, that's 9.3 million phones -- a run-rate that, with no growth, would put 2008 below Jobs' (conservative) public goal. Taking "particularly disappointing" European sales and seasonality into consideration, Sacconaghi projects sales of 7.9 million iPhones for calendar 2008 -- more than 20% below Jobs' goal.

We've been iPhone skeptics in the past, but in this case we think that Sacconaghi is being too pessimistic -- if anything, we think that Apple will be able to boost its December run rate during the course of the year. How? Some combination of the following:

  • Sell the iPhone in more countries. An Asia rollout, for instance, is already in the works.
  • Introduce new phones that run on a faster, "3G" wireless Internet service. Again, already planned.
  • A scaled-down "iPhone nano" with a price point to match, aimed at a broader audience.
  • Price cuts on current iPhones. (This has worked in the past.)
  • New software features, like support for third-party apps, that will make the phones more attractive to on-the-fence buyers. This was supposed to be happening this month, but BusinessWeek reports this could be delayed a few weeks.

Sacconaghi expects iPhone revenue to make up a puny 6% of Apple's fiscal 2008 sales, but almost 25% of the company's revenue in fiscal 2012. And he sees iPhones accounting for half of Apple's sales growth in the next four years, and as much as 80% of its profit growth. But we're also skeptical of that claim -- we think analysts continue to underestimate the growth and potential of Apple's core Mac line.

See Also:
Mac Cleared For Takeoff
China Mobile: 400,000 Unlocked iPhones On Our Network

43 Comments

A
A - Monday February 25, 2008 02:44PM EST

apple is the best and its stock will be pushing $200 by July. I know things.

Philip
Philip - Monday February 25, 2008 03:09PM EST

I think he is heavily shorting Apple or bought a lot of put options for Apple. He want to make others to believe what he wrote and make a huge profit.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday February 25, 2008 03:11PM EST

u have to love how the mac boys come out in droves for every negative Apple story true or not they say it's BS. Anyway I don't think Apple will sell 10 million iPhones by the end of 2008. Last report I saw puts their sales at about 1 million a qtr. I agree with this because who wants to pay $400 for a phone. U can say internet browsing but I wasn't that impressed by the iphones browsing capabilities (especially with no flash support). I'm not saying the iPhone is a bad product just not worth $400. If the next version has flash support, 3G, lets you use the side option for things other then browsing (who thought of having only for browsing anyway!!!), and improves the on screen keyboard it will be worth $400. That said I don’t think the razr 2 is worth $250 either but ppl are paying it so who knows.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday February 25, 2008 03:12PM EST

u have to love how the mac boys come out in droves for every negative Apple story true or not they say it's BS. Anyway I don't think Apple will sell 10 million iPhones by the end of 2008. Last report I saw puts their sales at about 1 million a qtr. I agree with this because who wants to pay $400 for a phone. U can say internet browsing but I wasn't that impressed by the iphones browsing capabilities (especially with no flash support). I'm not saying the iPhone is a bad product just not worth $400. If the next version has flash support, 3G, lets you use the side option for things other then browsing (who thought of having only for browsing anyway!!!), and improves the on screen keyboard it will be worth $400. That said I don’t think the razr 2 is worth $250 either but ppl are paying it so who knows.

David
David - Monday February 25, 2008 04:17PM EST

I've never seen a stock with this kind of a growth story get so pummeled by analysts. They must either be shorting, or buying on the dips they cause. If you do a little simple math, should Apple merely sell 5 million phones that are unlocked and activated in the year, and 8 million phones for an average of $400, they will raise a total of $4 billion incremental dollars for their approximately $24 billion (pre-iPhone business). This is because they made $0 the year before on iPhone. That's 16% incremental Y-O-Y growth for one product line, based on my estimates, which are below even Wall Street's most pessimistic. That also does not include growth in iPods, which is increasing bottom-line more than top-line, and Macs, which everyone knows are rising to take more and more of Windows market share, and are enough, alone, to merit a $200 price for the stock today. At below $150, this stock is a huge value. At below $120, it's a license to print money. Do what you want, analysts, who downgrade a stock priced at $120 and give a price target of $190, but I'm buying, and holding, and telling all of my friends to do the same.

David
David - Monday February 25, 2008 04:17PM EST

I've never seen a stock with this kind of a growth story get so pummeled by analysts. They must either be shorting, or buying on the dips they cause. If you do a little simple math, should Apple merely sell 5 million phones that are unlocked and activated in the year, and 8 million phones for an average of $400, they will raise a total of $4 billion incremental dollars for their approximately $24 billion (pre-iPhone business). This is because they made $0 the year before on iPhone. That's 16% incremental Y-O-Y growth for one product line, based on my estimates, which are below even Wall Street's most pessimistic. That also does not include growth in iPods, which is increasing bottom-line more than top-line, and Macs, which everyone knows are rising to take more and more of Windows market share, and are enough, alone, to merit a $200 price for the stock today. At below $150, this stock is a huge value. At below $120, it's a license to print money. Do what you want, analysts, who downgrade a stock priced at $120 and give a price target of $190, but I'm buying, and holding, and telling all of my friends to do the same.

David
David - Monday February 25, 2008 04:17PM EST

I've never seen a stock with this kind of a growth story get so pummeled by analysts. They must either be shorting, or buying on the dips they cause. If you do a little simple math, should Apple merely sell 5 million phones that are unlocked and activated in the year, and 8 million phones for an average of $400, they will raise a total of $4 billion incremental dollars for their approximately $24 billion (pre-iPhone business). This is because they made $0 the year before on iPhone. That's 16% incremental Y-O-Y growth for one product line, based on my estimates, which are below even Wall Street's most pessimistic. That also does not include growth in iPods, which is increasing bottom-line more than top-line, and Macs, which everyone knows are rising to take more and more of Windows market share, and are enough, alone, to merit a $200 price for the stock today. At below $150, this stock is a huge value. At below $120, it's a license to print money. Do what you want, analysts, who downgrade a stock priced at $120 and give a price target of $190, but I'm buying, and holding, and telling all of my friends to do the same.

David
David - Monday February 25, 2008 04:17PM EST

I've never seen a stock with this kind of a growth story get so pummeled by analysts. They must either be shorting, or buying on the dips they cause. If you do a little simple math, should Apple merely sell 5 million phones that are unlocked and activated in the year, and 8 million phones for an average of $400, they will raise a total of $4 billion incremental dollars for their approximately $24 billion (pre-iPhone business). This is because they made $0 the year before on iPhone. That's 16% incremental Y-O-Y growth for one product line, based on my estimates, which are below even Wall Street's most pessimistic. That also does not include growth in iPods, which is increasing bottom-line more than top-line, and Macs, which everyone knows are rising to take more and more of Windows market share, and are enough, alone, to merit a $200 price for the stock today. At below $150, this stock is a huge value. At below $120, it's a license to print money. Do what you want, analysts, who downgrade a stock priced at $120 and give a price target of $190, but I'm buying, and holding, and telling all of my friends to do the same.

David
David - Monday February 25, 2008 04:18PM EST

I've never seen a stock with this kind of a growth story get so pummeled by analysts. They must either be shorting, or buying on the dips they cause. If you do a little simple math, should Apple merely sell 5 million phones that are unlocked and activated in the year, and 8 million phones for an average of $400, they will raise a total of $4 billion incremental dollars for their approximately $24 billion (pre-iPhone business). This is because they made $0 the year before on iPhone. That's 16% incremental Y-O-Y growth for one product line, based on my estimates, which are below even Wall Street's most pessimistic. That also does not include growth in iPods, which is increasing bottom-line more than top-line, and Macs, which everyone knows are rising to take more and more of Windows market share, and are enough, alone, to merit a $200 price for the stock today. At below $150, this stock is a huge value. At below $120, it's a license to print money. Do what you want, analysts, who downgrade a stock priced at $120 and give a price target of $190, but I'm buying, and holding, and telling all of my friends to do the same.

David
David - Monday February 25, 2008 04:20PM EST

I've never seen a stock with this kind of a growth story get so pummeled by analysts. They must either be shorting, or buying on the dips they cause. If you do a little simple math, should Apple merely sell 5 million phones that are unlocked and activated in the year, and 8 million phones for an average of $400, they will raise a total of $4 billion incremental dollars for their approximately $24 billion (pre-iPhone business). This is because they made $0 the year before on iPhone. That's 16% incremental Y-O-Y growth for one product line, based on my estimates, which are below even Wall Street's most pessimistic. That also does not include growth in iPods, which is increasing bottom-line more than top-line, and Macs, which everyone knows are rising to take more and more of Windows market share, and are enough, alone, to merit a $200 price for the stock today. At below $150, this stock is a huge value. At below $120, it's a license to print money. Do what you want, analysts, who downgrade a stock priced at $120 and give a price target of $190, but I'm buying, and holding, and telling all of my friends to do the same.

David
David - Monday February 25, 2008 04:21PM EST

I've never seen a stock with this kind of a growth story get so pummeled by analysts. They must either be shorting, or buying on the dips they cause. If you do a little simple math, should Apple merely sell 5 million phones that are unlocked and activated in the year, and 8 million phones for an average of $400, they will raise a total of $4 billion incremental dollars for their approximately $24 billion (pre-iPhone business). This is because they made $0 the year before on iPhone. That's 16% incremental Y-O-Y growth for one product line, based on my estimates, which are below even Wall Street's most pessimistic. That also does not include growth in iPods, which is increasing bottom-line more than top-line, and Macs, which everyone knows are rising to take more and more of Windows market share, and are enough, alone, to merit a $200 price for the stock today. At below $150, this stock is a huge value. At below $120, it's a license to print money. Do what you want, analysts, who downgrade a stock priced at $120 and give a price target of $190, but I'm buying, and holding, and telling all of my friends to do the same.

David
David - Monday February 25, 2008 04:21PM EST

I've never seen a stock with this kind of a growth story get so pummeled by analysts. They must either be shorting, or buying on the dips they cause. If you do a little simple math, should Apple merely sell 5 million phones that are unlocked and activated in the year, and 8 million phones for an average of $400, they will raise a total of $4 billion incremental dollars for their approximately $24 billion (pre-iPhone business). This is because they made $0 the year before on iPhone. That's 16% incremental Y-O-Y growth for one product line, based on my estimates, which are below even Wall Street's most pessimistic. That also does not include growth in iPods, which is increasing bottom-line more than top-line, and Macs, which everyone knows are rising to take more and more of Windows market share, and are enough, alone, to merit a $200 price for the stock today. At below $150, this stock is a huge value. At below $120, it's a license to print money. Do what you want, analysts, who downgrade a stock priced at $120 and give a price target of $190, but I'm buying, and holding, and telling all of my friends to do the same.

David
David - Monday February 25, 2008 04:21PM EST

I've never seen a stock with this kind of a growth story get so pummeled by analysts. They must either be shorting, or buying on the dips they cause. If you do a little simple math, should Apple merely sell 5 million phones that are unlocked and activated in the year, and 8 million phones for an average of $400, they will raise a total of $4 billion incremental dollars for their approximately $24 billion (pre-iPhone business). This is because they made $0 the year before on iPhone. That's 16% incremental Y-O-Y growth for one product line, based on my estimates, which are below even Wall Street's most pessimistic. That also does not include growth in iPods, which is increasing bottom-line more than top-line, and Macs, which everyone knows are rising to take more and more of Windows market share, and are enough, alone, to merit a $200 price for the stock today. At below $150, this stock is a huge value. At below $120, it's a license to print money. Do what you want, analysts, who downgrade a stock priced at $120 and give a price target of $190, but I'm buying, and holding, and telling all of my friends to do the same.

David
David - Monday February 25, 2008 04:21PM EST

I've never seen a stock with this kind of a growth story get so pummeled by analysts. They must either be shorting, or buying on the dips they cause. If you do a little simple math, should Apple merely sell 5 million phones that are unlocked and activated in the year, and 8 million phones for an average of $400, they will raise a total of $4 billion incremental dollars for their approximately $24 billion (pre-iPhone business). This is because they made $0 the year before on iPhone. That's 16% incremental Y-O-Y growth for one product line, based on my estimates, which are below even Wall Street's most pessimistic. That also does not include growth in iPods, which is increasing bottom-line more than top-line, and Macs, which everyone knows are rising to take more and more of Windows market share, and are enough, alone, to merit a $200 price for the stock today. At below $150, this stock is a huge value. At below $120, it's a license to print money. Do what you want, analysts, who downgrade a stock priced at $120 and give a price target of $190, but I'm buying, and holding, and telling all of my friends to do the same.

David
David - Monday February 25, 2008 04:22PM EST

I've never seen a stock with this kind of a growth story get so pummeled by analysts. They must either be shorting, or buying on the dips they cause. If you do a little simple math, should Apple merely sell 5 million phones that are unlocked and activated in the year, and 8 million phones for an average of $400, they will raise a total of $4 billion incremental dollars for their approximately $24 billion (pre-iPhone business). This is because they made $0 the year before on iPhone. That's 16% incremental Y-O-Y growth for one product line, based on my estimates, which are below even Wall Street's most pessimistic. That also does not include growth in iPods, which is increasing bottom-line more than top-line, and Macs, which everyone knows are rising to take more and more of Windows market share, and are enough, alone, to merit a $200 price for the stock today. At below $150, this stock is a huge value. At below $120, it's a license to print money. Do what you want, analysts, who downgrade a stock priced at $120 and give a price target of $190, but I'm buying, and holding, and telling all of my friends to do the same.

David
David - Monday February 25, 2008 04:22PM EST

I've never seen a stock with this kind of a growth story get so pummeled by analysts. They must either be shorting, or buying on the dips they cause. If you do a little simple math, should Apple merely sell 5 million phones that are unlocked and activated in the year, and 8 million phones for an average of $400, they will raise a total of $4 billion incremental dollars for their approximately $24 billion (pre-iPhone business). This is because they made $0 the year before on iPhone. That's 16% incremental Y-O-Y growth for one product line, based on my estimates, which are below even Wall Street's most pessimistic. That also does not include growth in iPods, which is increasing bottom-line more than top-line, and Macs, which everyone knows are rising to take more and more of Windows market share, and are enough, alone, to merit a $200 price for the stock today. At below $150, this stock is a huge value. At below $120, it's a license to print money. Do what you want, analysts, who downgrade a stock priced at $120 and give a price target of $190, but I'm buying, and holding, and telling all of my friends to do the same.

LindaW
LindaW - Monday February 25, 2008 06:27PM EST

New products / ideas will spur the iPhone sales ..... My tech guy had one today and I asked ... "How do you like it" - answer "I LOVE IT .... Don't know what I did without it"

Jack
Jack - Monday February 25, 2008 07:47PM EST

It's about time some one wrote an article based on reason and not AAPL bashing like the Savitz's & Eli's of this world. I have never seen a stock picked apart as much as AAPL has been. Can you Imagine going to the toilet, and as soon as you flush a hand reaches in and grabs your toilet paper to check on you health. Maybe Jobs could save Barron's some trouble, and just mail his used toilet paper to them. Jack Plasky

Wa
Wa - Monday February 25, 2008 08:44PM EST

I agree with Joe. If you go back and look at what Steve Jobs promised back in Macworld 2007 and Macworld 2008, he indicated they would sell 10 million units of the iPhone by the conclusion of 2008, not IN 2008. That means he gave them 18 months (from June 2007 through December 2008) to meet the goal. As of January 2008, they only need another 6 million sales, which should be quite doable, as they will only have to manage 500,000 units per month for the rest of the year.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday February 25, 2008 10:36PM EST

Apple is and will be a great company for the forseeable future. PERIOD!

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