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10-Year Bull Market Has Begun; Dow Will "Double For Sure", Hennessy Says

Posted Oct 01, 2009 08:00am EDT by Peter Gorenstein in Investing

The Dow Jones Industrial rose 15% in the third quarter, closing the book on its best 3-month span in 11 years.

Skeptics calls it a classic bear market rally.

Neil Hennessy, chief investment officer of the Hennessey Funds, has a more positive assessment. 

Much more positive.

"I think we're starting a 10-year bull market," he claims. During that time, he believes, the Dow will "double for sure" from current levels.

His reasoning?

Stocks are the only reasonable money-making investment in this current environment of low interest rates. Why "put your money into a 30-year U.S. government bond at 4% and wait 30 years to get your money back?" he asks.

Instead, he says, buy the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The 30 components are yielding a 3% dividend and, unlike Treasuries, offer a growth opportunity.

Plus, with trillions in cash on the sidelines waiting to get in the game, the market's headed in one direction: Up.

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206 votes|Recommend this

581 Comments

Landon
Landon - Thursday October 01, 2009 08:14AM EDT

Well, the Dow will go up, but not because of side-line money. It is going up because the USD is going to hell in a hand basket and those 30 co's have a disproportionate share of foreign earnings. Every thing else but the USD is going higher.

CAROLINE
CAROLINE - Thursday October 01, 2009 08:15AM EDT

Who is this guy and what is his track record? He is looking for headlines

Doug
Doug - Thursday October 01, 2009 08:16AM EDT

Go ahead, drink the cool-aid if you want too....

Wayne
Wayne - Thursday October 01, 2009 08:17AM EDT

BULL -----CRAP

Mazati
Mazati - Thursday October 01, 2009 08:18AM EDT

This guy is a genius,...because we agree. I see the dow at 38,000!

fan2009
fan2009 - Thursday October 01, 2009 08:18AM EDT

Buy, Buy, Buy stocks now.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday October 01, 2009 08:19AM EDT

I think it's a 15 year bull run. No! Wait! A 20 year bull run! WAIT! On second thought 20 years may be too high. How about a 12 year bull run followed by a 2 year bubble and a 3 year bear market cause by Alan Greenspan's grandson?

Richard B
Richard B - Thursday October 01, 2009 08:21AM EDT

$400+ trillion in derivatives out there, who knows what CDOs & other exotic papers are on the banks books? Oh, remember the commercial RE bubble on the horizon. Oh yes, unemployment is a snowball rolling down a mountain towards the village in the valley called "The Economy". He's a man paid to put a bull-market picture out there all the time to ...sell more of his product. Oops, borgot to remember that a climbing market's a predictionary model...and a crash of the magnitude like the one last fall changes that to a refectionary model...and then a climb of 50% without any fundamental foundation to stand on...and you can see that we have 4-6 more years of de-leveraging.

Darren
Darren - Thursday October 01, 2009 08:22AM EDT

Repeat itself? Yeah Great depression. Start of a 10 year bull market? Who's this idiot. Good times coming? Retard.

RurikH
RurikH - Thursday October 01, 2009 08:23AM EDT

A crazy article and some crazy comments. The old adage applies: Buy solid companies when they're down. Right now, there happen to be some solid companies, but there are also a ton of overprice, overweight and over hyped companies..... same as it ever was.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday October 01, 2009 08:25AM EDT

"...the market's headed in one direction: Up." - unless, of course, it goes Down.

berryh
berryh - Thursday October 01, 2009 08:26AM EDT

put this nut in the nut house he don't know what he is talking about

EDWARDG
EDWARDG - Thursday October 01, 2009 08:27AM EDT

He is stimulating money to invest into the market.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday October 01, 2009 08:28AM EDT

10 year bull market? more like 10 year bullsh*t, put the crack pipe down bro...wait for interest to go up soon and the market to go down, there's where to put your money.

Marcus A Banks
Marcus A Banks - Thursday October 01, 2009 08:28AM EDT

The Dow can go to 50,000! In worthless currency.

James
James - Thursday October 01, 2009 08:30AM EDT

Unfortunately, there is not trillions in cash on the sidelines. The only trillions that have propped this market and created a false sense of recovery is tax dollars via the FRC and direct injection to ETF's. As the FRC is forced to unwind from its most disastrous decisions in history we will feel the effects. US has supported hosuing and it is still in decline. US has supported auto sales, immediate decline pending after CforC. US has supported bank reserve levels throug MtoM corruption. US has supported consumer debt levels via TARP US has created huge windfalls for banks via LLC's designed for AIG US has supported policy that is counter to other world economies. When the good ole FED pulls back beginning in November the smoke will clear. The best place for free capital is to follow the lead of the Chinese, get out of dollars and US investments and purchase commodities, or more specific precious metals and erl. If the healthcare bill does not get through the FRC will begin unwinding immediately as they are banking on this next cash cow to siphon off alleged surpluses created in the fund to pay the interest on the monies they have lent to Uncle Sam. No different than Social Security, just another revenue stream so the losers in Washinton do not have to put forth a politically unsafe tax hike to pay the interest. Dissolving the Federal Reserve Corp. would immediately put this Country back on a road to prosperity. It is time for free markets to control monetary supply instead of debt controlling free markets. Wake up American citizens. It doesn't matter which side of the aisle your guys sits on, he still pays tribute to the almighty dollar and the effects it would have on his personal agenda. Repub / DEm are just nice words for vultures that both eat at the same carcus from different sides.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday October 01, 2009 08:30AM EDT

This interview and ones like it will be replayed over the coming years to prove how bad some people were looking at this economy through beer goggles.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday October 01, 2009 08:31AM EDT

JUST ONE MORE SLOBBERY GUY LOOKING FOR IDIOTS

emoney
emoney - Thursday October 01, 2009 08:32AM EDT

Just a guy talking it up so you dump more money into his Hennessy Funds.

Rick
Rick - Thursday October 01, 2009 08:33AM EDT

Things have already turned the corner and the economy is getting better but the reason I agree with him is because inflation only will bring the dow to new hieghts!

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