Wednesday, December 9, 2009, 8:59PM ET - U.S. Markets Closed.

The "Real" Economy Is Dying: Q4 "Going to Be a Bloodbath," Whalen Says

Posted Oct 05, 2009 01:49pm EDT by Aaron Task in Investing, Recession, Banking
Stocks rallied to start the week thanks to a better-than-expected ISM services sector report and a Goldman Sachs upgrade of big banks, including Wells Fargo, Comerica and Capital One.

But all is not right in either the economy or the banking sector, according to Christopher Whalen, managing director at Institutional Risk Analytics. In fact, Whalen says most observers are drawing the wrong economic conclusions from the stock market's robust rally.

"Why is liquidity going into the financial sector? It's because the real economy is dying [and] everyone is fleeing into the stocks and bonds because they're liquid at the moment," Whalen says. "That's not a good sign."

The banking sector's assets shrunk by about $300 billion per quarter in the first half of 2009, a sign of banks hoarding cash in anticipation of additional future losses, according to Whalen. "The real economy is shrinking because of a lack of credit."

The shrinkage will continue into 2010, Whalen predicts, suggesting the banking sector hasn't yet seen the peak in loan losses. Institutional Risk Analytics forecasts the FDIC will ultimately need $300 billion to $400 billion to recoup losses to its bank insurance fund. (In other words, the $45 billion the FDIC sought to raise last week by asking banks to prepay fees is just a drop in the bucket.)

"Investors should think about this because the fourth quarter in the banking industry is going to be a bloodbath," says Whalen, who believes smaller and regional banks like Hudson City Bancorp may come into favor vs. larger peers, which have dramatically outperformed since the March lows.

"When you see the markets rallying when the real economy is shrinking that tells you this [recovery] is not going to be very enduring," Whalen says.

In this regard, Whalen finds himself in philosophical agreement with Nouriel Roubini, George Soros and Meredith Whitney, among other "prophets of the apocalypse" who've once again been raising red flags in recent days.

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204 Comments

- Monday October 05, 2009 01:54PM EDT

YAWN

- Monday October 05, 2009 01:55PM EDT

YAWN

- Monday October 05, 2009 01:58PM EDT

Interview Dick Bove. He really knows the banks

- Monday October 05, 2009 01:59PM EDT

this is the greatest government backed bear market rally i have ever seen (i have been in the buisness for 15 yrs) the only problem this time is that nothing has been fixed the banks can't lend because they still have 1 trillion of bad loans..if these loans were took over by the gov last fall as paulson wanted then they would be able to lend ( the margin on these loans is what is eating up all thei captial)..real unemployment is near 13% until i start seing some concrete numbers then i'll say the worst is over and i have been out of stocks since late june..

- Monday October 05, 2009 02:03PM EDT

government is growing whilst the economy is shrinking, doesn't anyone else see what is wrong here? What came first the chicken or the egg? Or does it matter?

- Monday October 05, 2009 02:06PM EDT

Yes the 4th quarter is going to be rough because of the "Stimulus" package. We could have been recovering strong with good job creation.

- Monday October 05, 2009 02:07PM EDT

nice one

- Monday October 05, 2009 02:08PM EDT

Any so-called bear who tells you the economy is bad, so we need more government taxing, borrowing, spending, inflating, bailing out, stimulating, or shoveling is not to be trusted. Every government effort to avert the final catastrophic consequences of the looting of the financial system by the malfeasance of those responsible for regulating it will only increase the severity of the final outcome. Get real...gold.

- Monday October 05, 2009 02:08PM EDT

nice one

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday October 05, 2009 02:09PM EDT

nice one

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday October 05, 2009 02:10PM EDT

It will take more than a government sponsored massage to heal this sick, government obliterated economy.

- Monday October 05, 2009 02:11PM EDT

Although Whalen has some good points, and even though most won't understand this in the market, with or without "support" the market has a recovery path to go through. We will see many more new banks open when the market has gone through the right corrections. And, these banks will probably have a whole new less self serving business model reflecting the needs of consumers and the market. It's about time people!!!!

- Monday October 05, 2009 02:14PM EDT

Not matter how you slice and dice this thing up we're screwed in the short term. Until the thrist of shrewd and the greed is quinched we are all going to have to continue to pay. There is still so much political payback happening that we are still at least a year away from real recovery. An excellent time to be buying... AND HOLDING.

- Monday October 05, 2009 02:14PM EDT

Interesting. The fund managers (people with something to sell) say all is great. People like this guy whose job is to assess risk paint a not so rosy picture. When's the last time a salesperson was honest with you?

- Monday October 05, 2009 02:16PM EDT

what else would you expect? Anyone could have seen this coming years back who is the least bit open minded or aware of how the world is today, just a logical course of events, and has all happened before. A visionless society has no where to go.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday October 05, 2009 02:18PM EDT

We back to the grim reality of economic data.....Sometimes we gotta get creative...There's still a plenty of room for innovation ....

- Monday October 05, 2009 02:19PM EDT

Consider purchasing some ticker symbol "FAZ" to gain from bank stocks going south...

- Monday October 05, 2009 02:20PM EDT

what else would you expect? Anyone could have seen this coming years back who is the least bit open minded or aware of how the world is today, just a logical course of events, and has all happened before. A visionless society has no where to go.

- Monday October 05, 2009 02:21PM EDT

Lets borrow another 82.7 trillion dollars. The dollar will never collapse. $82,700,000,000,000.00 divided by 153,000,000 million workinh Americans equals $538,000.00 dollars that each working american owes for this on the book and off the book debt. www.usdebtclock.org-----Go see for yourself. Lets double what we owe....I want to owe a full million. That's what most people earn in a lifetime. Lets give the government our entire paycheck....not just half of it.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday October 05, 2009 02:24PM EDT

You cannot insist that the banks deleverage and, at the same time, increase lending. The question is "When will the consumer feel comfortabe enough with their personal balance sheets and job situation to begin to spend again"

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