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The Next Big Bailout? FHA Facing "Cataclysmic" Default Rates

Posted Oct 13, 2009 09:00am EDT by Aaron Task
Given the choice between "complete collapse" and increased government involvement in the housing market, Whitney Tilson, manager of T2 Partners, is glad policymakers opted for the latter in 2008.

But there is going to be a heavy price to pay for the U.S. government becoming the nation's mortgage broker, says Tilson, co-author of More Mortgage Meltdown.

Specifically, Tilson is worried about the potential need for a bailout of the Federal Housing Administration (FHA), which has guaranteed about 25% of all new U.S. mortgages written in 2009, up from just 2% in 2005.

Created in 1934 to help low-income and first-time homeowners, the FHA has historically played a minor role in the U.S. housing market. But the agency has become the government's vehicle of choice for mortgage financing in the past year.

Again, Tilson supports the concept of the government stepping into the breach caused by the near total cessation of private mortgage lending, as well as the curtailed financial activity of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which became wards of the state in September 2008. But "there's a price to pay," he says, noting the FHA is facing "cataclysmic default rates" on loans written in 2006, 2007 and early 2008, as detailed by The NY Times.

"Effectively we the taxpayers are now guaranteeing mortgages written by over 10,000 FHA-approved lenders," Tilson says. "The FHA's portfolio is exploding [and] the taxpayer is now on the hook for 100% of the losses."

How big of a hook? The FHA's mortgage portfolio is now approaching $1 trillion. You can't assume all those mortgages will default but you can assume the FHA's exposure will only grow in the months ahead as politicians continue to look for ways to support the housing market (especially in an election year.)

In other words, FHA is looking very much like the "new Fannie Mae."

209 Comments

- Tuesday October 13, 2009 09:07AM EDT

The losses cannot remain hidden forever.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday October 13, 2009 09:08AM EDT

Looks like theres one more coffer for the progressives to loot before the collapse.

- Tuesday October 13, 2009 09:12AM EDT

All these government agencies that absolutely FAIL at their jobs (FHA, Freddie, Fannie, Post Office, Social Security, Welfare, Medicare) yet we want to give government control of things like health care? When was the last time you saw the government do something right? Insanity is running rampant these days.

- Tuesday October 13, 2009 09:17AM EDT

Housing has a LONG way to go.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday October 13, 2009 09:19AM EDT

It's way too early to claim we have avoided an economic collapse. It's amazing to see an "expert" say that it's a good thing that house prices are still being propped up with taxpayer guarantees and Fed purchases (what he calls injection of capital is just money printing by the Fed as it buys mortgage securities). Truly amazing. All this nonsense will continue until the dollar collapses.

- Tuesday October 13, 2009 09:23AM EDT

FHA faces only a $Trillion... No problem Timmy and Ben will just write them a check. Vote OUT the INCUMBENTS in 2010.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday October 13, 2009 09:28AM EDT

Quick, more Cool-Aid please ;-)

- Tuesday October 13, 2009 09:29AM EDT

The biggest problem we all have is that the government run by Wall St. is buying votes with their economic policies. The economic well being of our country is being used as a political football to control re-election of the same representatives that got us into this crisis. Oh! I keep forgetting that they told us the recession is over. Duh... VOTE OUT the INCUMBENTS in 2010.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday October 13, 2009 09:29AM EDT

I like that word "Cataclysmic".. just seems appropriate... The combination of greed, arrogance, collusion, and corruption in business and government prompted a cataclysmic event the likes of which this generation has never seen before. It just rings true....

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday October 13, 2009 09:34AM EDT

A "Cataclysmic" Meltdown of epic proportions is upon us.. better guard your Fannie... wahhhh.. it's gonna be biblical when the Sodomites receive their just reward ...

- Tuesday October 13, 2009 09:36AM EDT

The FHA knows that just like the Bank Toxic assets they can just have the FED take the loses off balance sheet and hide them until they are forgotten. VOTE OUT the INCUMBENTS in 2010.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday October 13, 2009 09:38AM EDT

Health Care? I bet the CBO is off by at least 100% on their guesstimates.. ah what's another couple trillion at this point? And the Laden family sells us the special ink to use on our new dollar bills. Isn't that nice? Have a great day!

- Tuesday October 13, 2009 09:39AM EDT

Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday October 13, 2009 09:08AM EDT Looks like theres one more coffer for the progressives to loot before the collapse.//// Pray, tell - How are "progressives" going to benefit from another bailout? Look, the Reagan and two Bush Administrations looted the public treasury completely before Obama came on the scene. Where did that pallet of cash in Iraq go? You must be Rip Van Winkle - you slept through 25 years of the looting of the public purse and are just now waking up, when a black, Democratic president gets in the Oval Office? Obama inherited a building that was on fire. He is just working overtime to save some of its contents!

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday October 13, 2009 09:44AM EDT

FHA tax payers (you & me) is now responsible for Mortgages held by (you &me). Is this really bad. self help is the best help.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday October 13, 2009 09:44AM EDT

This is re-distribution of the wealth. The prognosis ain't good and neither is the cure.

- Tuesday October 13, 2009 09:45AM EDT

Mortgage failures will exacerbate overall deflationary conditions in the economy. Read more at http://www.TheSentinel.biz

- Tuesday October 13, 2009 09:46AM EDT

The USA is becoming the USSA. Its Communism plain and simple - put into place by the same old folks - Marx and his brethren. John Chapter 8 - read it and understand.

- Tuesday October 13, 2009 09:46AM EDT

I had a doctor that always told me the worse. If I had a stomach ache he would say its probably ulcers. If I had knee pain he would say its probably rheumatoid arthritis. I guess, when it turned out to be gas/pulled muscle, I felt better. So your guest likes words like complete collapse, cataclysmic, long grinding recession, deep depression, etc. Thank you Dr. Tilson. I have a headache and feel better already by your diagnosis.

- Tuesday October 13, 2009 09:47AM EDT

I put on a 1% hedge using inverse bond and inverse oil/stock exchange traded funds to hedge my long gold position. Given the nature of these instruments, the hedge will probably just cost me money, but you never know what the future holds. If rates spike on any serious dollar weakness, things are going to get ugly in the markets. So far, bonds are holding, but the dollar has not crashed...yet. Very dicey situation...

- Tuesday October 13, 2009 09:53AM EDT

Goverment are idiots, you can't cheat economics, eventually the market will fix itself by blowing out all this government cash and leave the crud in the tax payers hands.

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