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Dow Breaks 10,000: Don't Get Caught Up in "Euphoria", Mish Warns

Posted Oct 14, 2009 04:19pm EDT by Peter Gorenstein in Investing, Recession

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 10,000 today for the first time in a year, and more than a decade after first breaking the mark. Since hitting lows in March, the Dow is up an astounding 50%, while the S&P 500 has gained 60%.

Before you get your broker on the phone or start trading that dormant online brokerage account, take heed of this warning from Mike “Mish” Shedlock, the blogger behind MISH'S Global Economic Trend Analysis: "Five years from now, I think its quite likely the Dow is not going to be much more than 10,000," he says.

Why so negative?

"We've still not solved any of those structural problems" in the housing, banking and debt markets, that caused last year's crisis, he claims.

Shedlock's advice: ignore the euphoria, and "take some chips off the table.  Now's just not a good time to be invested."

Shedlock, also an investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management, thinks investors are better positioned in gold and cash.

 

253 Comments

TylerS
TylerS - Wednesday October 14, 2009 04:26PM EDT

Nothing has changed except the number of the Dow.

Terry
Terry - Wednesday October 14, 2009 04:26PM EDT

With 60% of the volume being High Frequency Trading (HFT) this smells of manipulation. How many of you are able to utilize HFT?

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday October 14, 2009 04:27PM EDT

The government owned Media says.. BUY.. BUY... BUY..... The FED will print money and solve ALL of out problems... right??? Bank stocks are WAY higher than they were a year ago even after the issue of new shares. Go figure, the insanity will end one day

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday October 14, 2009 04:29PM EDT

Good times are here again............ for wall street crooks.

Ronald
Ronald - Wednesday October 14, 2009 04:31PM EDT

Mish, cautious is the word man. Yeah - let's put our money in Gold and Silver. Keep your money from the robber inflation thieves. Yank our cash out of the system by going to Gold and Silver - starve the beast!

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday October 14, 2009 04:31PM EDT

A TechTicker person who actually gets it. It's a miracle!

D
D - Wednesday October 14, 2009 04:32PM EDT

Dow Breaks 10,000 - honestly.... LODDI FREKKIN DAH the market is fixed.

Terry
Terry - Wednesday October 14, 2009 04:32PM EDT

Let's see JPM bought WAMU for peanuts and got to park their toxic assets at the FED so they didn't need to declare the loses and get to borrow at .25% and lend at 5% to 30%. Now who do think is going to pay for this huge gift to JPM and GS?

Dan
Dan - Wednesday October 14, 2009 04:32PM EDT

Even though I might be inclined to agree with this guy, he doesn't inspire a lot of confidence with all of the stammering he's doing.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday October 14, 2009 04:33PM EDT

I love how every time there is good news TechTicker finds some dude that says "wait everything is really crappy". I'd love to see this guys stock market return. I bet its horrible...

Ronald
Ronald - Wednesday October 14, 2009 04:33PM EDT

Mish, cautious is the word man. Yeah - let's put our money in Gold and Silver. Keep your money from the robber inflation thieves. Yank our cash out of the system by going to Gold and Silver - starve the beast!

Kyle
Kyle - Wednesday October 14, 2009 04:35PM EDT

Im still getting my towel.

BobDiaz
BobDiaz - Wednesday October 14, 2009 04:36PM EDT

While it's nice to see the DJI at 10,000; the stocks are overvalued. Mish is correct, we are NOT out of the woods yet... invest with care, this could still go bad, very bad...

S
S - Wednesday October 14, 2009 04:36PM EDT

When Obama slaughters the middle class next year with his healthcare ultimatum which will cost a straight 13% of every middle class family's income to be stolen by Big Healthcare conglomerates, the market will not survive nor will the economy.

ezshooter
ezshooter - Wednesday October 14, 2009 04:36PM EDT

If you check out the balance sheets of many corporations, you will see decent profits and improving levels of cash on hand. The rally is for real. I agree that 2010 will bring forward many foreclosures on homes but expect those homes to be purchased by eager buyers at lower prices and the housing mess will be greatly minimized by late 2011. The job market will improve slowly over two years. Obama's financial reforms will increase international trust in our economy again. Look for another tech and biotech boom. Obama likes science and that is good for a progressive economy.

C Donovan
C Donovan - Wednesday October 14, 2009 04:36PM EDT

Wow - mish is alot fatter than the pic on his site, and hes not nearly as eloquent in speaking as he is in his writing. Honestly, he sounds a bit of a rambling fool (gold AND cash)??? I suddenly lost alot of respect for him

Tony
Tony - Wednesday October 14, 2009 04:37PM EDT

An interesting exercise you might like to try is to plot the graph for the SPX500 or the ETF proxy, the SPY. Then plot a comparison of the UDN (bearish EFT for the USD) or the FXE (Euro currency ETF). If you do this, you will notice that the SP500 was relatively above the value of both the USD and the Euro prior to the crash. After the crash, in relative terms, it was miles below the value of those currencies. Thus, in terms of its value against these currencies, there is still a lot of headroom in the upward direction. Thus, I can see the stock market going up for quite a while yet.

sharkbait
sharkbait - Wednesday October 14, 2009 04:37PM EDT

this mish guy needs to shut up and let us bask in this glory of 10k. so much negativity.

JOSEPH
JOSEPH - Wednesday October 14, 2009 04:37PM EDT

what is HTS

wildone
wildone - Wednesday October 14, 2009 04:38PM EDT

He knows what he is talking about, but man he needs to work on his presentation skills! FYI___ This economy is still going down hill. All you need to do is watch what is happening around you, PEOPLE ARE BROKE AND HAVE NO MONEY TO SPEND!!! How in the heII can the DOW go above 10k without manipulation!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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