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Seriously Folks, the Housing Bubble Is Back

Posted Oct 15, 2009 09:56am EDT by Joe Weisenthal in Investing, Recession, Housing

From The Business Insider, Oct. 15, 2009:

We mentioned this a week ago, though this story has been kind of flying under the radar: The housing bubble is back.

No, home prices aren't (yet) at overinflated levels again, but the housing market is seeing a return of enthusiasm, mania, and speculation, the likes of which we haven't seen in a long time.

Now CNBC's Diana Olick (via Calculated Risk) is talking about it. Here's an email a realtor sent to a friend of hers.

The foreclosure capital of America, Vegas home prices are down more than 50 percent from their peak in 2006. The median price of a home there is $138,000, but, interestingly, the inventory is down to a less than 3-month supply. Compare that to the national inventory, now at an 8.5 month supply. Despite the low supply, prices are not recovering quickly because the sales are all by banks, looking to unload properties quickly.

But back to Katie. Her Realtor, who is also an old friend, emailed Katie the following warnings before her arrival on the Vegas strip:

    - This market is crazy and many things are just not going to make any sense.
    - I can guarantee you 99.99% of the listings emailed to you will no longer be available by the time you get here.
    - Properties are selling in the blink of an eye.
    - Properties are getting multiple offers within a few days of being on the market, the most offers I’ve heard a house had recently was 44 offers (I know, crazy).
    - This market is crazy and many things are just not going to make any sense.
    - 40% of all transactions are cash purchases, which makes it harder for the buyers who are financing to get their offers accepted.
    - We have 1/2 the inventory we had a year ago and 4 times as many buyers as we did a year ago.
    - Chances are we will have to submit several offers to have the chance of getting 1 accepted.
    - This market is crazy and many things are just not going to make any sense.
    - You will probably leave not knowing if you have a house or not because banks take 2 to 3 weeks to respond, because this market is crazy… you know the rest.

Is this just realtor puffery? Possible. But this fits with other anecdotal evidence people are seeing. Foreclosureville markets are going crazy again.

More coverage from The Business Insider:

 

 

182 Comments

JC
JC - Thursday October 15, 2009 10:02AM EDT

Well, it is Vegas.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday October 15, 2009 10:05AM EDT

Look! I am pisssed! Thinking the market had bottomed, I bought on the "first time" program. BUT, it appears now that I bought way to early, because homes are much lower now than what I paid. Also, there's more homes popping up on my street and I'm terrified all this inventory is going to crater the value of my house. Then, I find out I'm getting laid-off and I already used all the money I had saved for my down payment. I terrified because I could actually become a foreclosure victim, even though I thought I was doing everything right.

Terry
Terry - Thursday October 15, 2009 10:07AM EDT

Yes but as an owner of 2 homes NJ & FL all markets are always local. We are now seeing sales but at very low prices in FL and NJ has held up much better. When the $8k deals ends sales will dry up over the holidays and winter. Buckle up people it's going to be a long roller coaster ride.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday October 15, 2009 10:07AM EDT

Sounds to me like people with more dollars than sense are swooping in to buy up depressed properties at deep discounts hoping to make a killing later on. A boneheaded move in my opinion because real estate is a very poor buy and hold investment. You have to move real estate quickly in order to make money, otherwise the taxes and expenses associated with real estate will eat you alive.

Tex
Tex - Thursday October 15, 2009 10:08AM EDT

Again, you are picking on the areas of the country that attract housing bubbles and speculators; Las Vegas, Florida. In Texas we have very little of these shenanigans. Mismanagement on their part does not constitute a crisis on my part; that's what my pappy used to say.

frankmargel.com
frankmargel.com - Thursday October 15, 2009 10:11AM EDT

Good Morning Gang! Happy Thursday! The housing market will recover and send the consumer back to what is left of the malls, and appliance stores. Low's and Home Depot are anticipating big gains short of record profits when consumers flock to the big box once again. Perhaps some folks will reserve some cash and purchase cautiously, perhaps. Shopping is fun, and credit will ease! Lookout! Smiles and have a great day!

Solar
Solar - Thursday October 15, 2009 10:13AM EDT

I counted "CRAZY" in the text a dozen times: Indicating it's either SPAM or the writer is CRAZY!

Solar
Solar - Thursday October 15, 2009 10:13AM EDT

You were "CRAZY" for posting the text to begin with!

Kenneth
Kenneth - Thursday October 15, 2009 10:14AM EDT

I think every Real Estate agent is programmed to talk like that. That's what got us in trouble in the first place. If it's so flippen crazy, where in this letter does it say that the Realtor purchased some houses for herself? It doesn't because it's all BS and hype. Yes, the market out there is getting better but half my family lives in Vegas and surrounding areas and it's a slum out there. No jobs, the neighborhoods are trashed and whole areas are abandoned. Not to mention that NV is a total hell hole.

Anthony
Anthony - Thursday October 15, 2009 10:15AM EDT

WWW.USDEBTCLOCK.ORG Do you own any gold or silver?

Solar
Solar - Thursday October 15, 2009 10:15AM EDT

"That's what my pappy used to say"? Remind me to NEVER move to Texas! I can live w/o you or your "pappy".

Terry
Terry - Thursday October 15, 2009 10:15AM EDT

Also the 3.5% down FHA insured mortgage scam plus the $8k incentive is priming many of the sales. This tactic of selling homes to those that should be renters will again end badly. But they (the FED) will just solve the problem by printing more money and taking in more toxic assets. No Senator should be in office more than 2 terms (12 years) and no Congressmen/women should be in office more than 3 terms (6 years) otherwise they do too much harm to us all. The REAL solution is... VOTE OUT the INCUMBENTS in 2010.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday October 15, 2009 10:16AM EDT

Watch this movie and look at the news over the last year then tell me we aren't being over run by Wall St. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eAaQNACwaLw

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday October 15, 2009 10:16AM EDT

The United States of Pump and Dump. I dont believe I've ever seen a more appropriate invocation of the 'greater fool' theory.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday October 15, 2009 10:18AM EDT

This is crazy - a friend who has had same job 10+ years and same house, $250K equity, 850 credit rating, did not qualify for a refi.......a secretary in his office, single mom with 2 kids, boyfriend just out of jail, bankruptcy 2 yrs ago got a loan with her boyfriend to purchase.......boy....I don't mind helping those need help but this makes no sense at all.......what's going on.....

sheila
sheila - Thursday October 15, 2009 10:19AM EDT

Quit pointing your finger at dems and repubs, BOTH are crooks along with the Federal Reserve corporation which are a combined force fixed on destroying the working class of America to establish a New Weird Odor, other than the odor coming from Washington and Wall St. The Dollar is being destroyed, and anyone remember the posts from Doug Y? It's all true! Its comming fast people. GET READY! I Sign the petition! http://www.thepetitionsite.com/14/restore-the-republic-of-the-united-states-of-america

taopraxis
taopraxis - Thursday October 15, 2009 10:24AM EDT

The bubble never deflated and the recovery never happened. Nothing has changed. As people's incomes fall, housing will remain unaffordable and prices maintained only by artificial government supports. Wait until mortgage rates double...and they will. Then, you will see a real bottom in housing.

Disaster
Disaster - Thursday October 15, 2009 10:24AM EDT

Another hype of doom and gloom by tech-ticker. It is highly irresponsible of you to draw conclusion from the Vegas market and apply it to the rest of the country. But nothing you people do at tech-ticker surprises me. Unbelievable how you people try to hype it up!

notabonehead
notabonehead - Thursday October 15, 2009 10:35AM EDT

Because people and investors are buying houses for far less than it would cost to build them you call it a bubble for them to be going so quickly? The old saying “you make money in real estate when you buy, not when you sell” is very true. I live in an area hardest hit by the housing boom/bust. From 800 new permits a month to 12 at the low a few months ago and over 60,000 foreclosures this year, yet real estate sales are at record levels because prices have never been cheaper. There is virtually no building. When the inventory dries up eventually and the quick flip on cheap houses dries up, they WILL build more.

ACGAR
ACGAR - Thursday October 15, 2009 10:35AM EDT

Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday October 15, 2009 10:19AM EDT The housing bubble may be back because houses are still way too expensive. It's not a bubble because houses have increased in value. It's a bubble because now even more and more people can't afford them. No job. No mortgage payment. Bubble.********************Agree, I say the same about healthcare, our healthcare system IS getting better and better so SHOULD be increasing in price........Problem is wages are goinng down at the same time........If we did not send all the jobs offshore and crush labor unions everybody could afford healthcare and there woudl be no problem......but now we will all (taxpayer) will pay for health benefits (re reform) that workers used to earn for themselves....Enjoy that cheap commie china made TV but open the checkbook to pay someone else's healthcare.........same as we are paying to risk others' housing loans ......its called race to the bottom or somethig like that

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