A 'Remarkable' Gathering: Soros and Roach and Geithner, Oh My!

Here's a sample:

• Tim Geithner: "The first stage of recovery [is] better than expected [but] because of the credit bust, it's going to be slower than a typical recovery," the Treasury Secretary said Thursday afternoon in the event's kickoff session. "We're still at a point where the dominant risk is of growth not being strong [and] self sustaining." (A video of Geithner's comments is available at Economist.com.)
• Stephen Roach: "The market is in for a rude awakening," said the chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, whose grim outlook seems to remain constant wherever he's domiciled. "This will be an usually weak recovery," Roach said. "The damage done to the system [will be] lasting - we are not even close to healing. It's ‘game over' for the U.S. consumer. Deleveraging is just beginning."
• George Soros: The global recovery is "bound to be flat" because China is now the world's motor and it's a "smaller, slower" motor than the U.S. was, said the famed financier and chair of Soros Fund Management. (As an aside - and it's a big one given his track record - Soros said weakness in the dollar has become "a bit overextended" and observed the short-dollar trade is "extremely crowed.")
• Duncan Niederauer: "Don't be misled by the Dow," said the CEO of NYSE Euronext. The rally "doesn't mean we don't have a lot of work to do."
• Dr. Jacob Frenkel: "The days of reckoning will come" for all the fiscal and money stimulus; specifically, higher long-term inflation, higher interest rates and lower growth, said the chairman of Group of Thirty and former Bank of Israel governor. "You must articulate today how the book will be closed" on all the extraordinary government support. (In fairness, Frenkel was optimistic relative to Soros and Roach, forecasting "next year will be significantly better" for global growth; his concerns focused on 2011 and beyond.)

For the record, the theme of the conference was "fixing finance" so rather than "bull vs. bear," most of the debates were about how to reform Wall Street compensation and whether or not we need to regulate derivatives. There was also heated discussion between Harvard's Niall Ferguson and Columbia's Jeffrey Sachs about whether Japan and China will form an economic partnership. (Trust me, it was entertaining.)

A ‘Remarkable' Couple

Secretary Geithner kicked off the event Thursday and Larry Summers, Director of the National Economic Council, was Friday's featured guest. The policymakers have distinctive personalities but spoke with notable similarities.

We have been "remarkably effective" in putting down a foundation of stability, Secretary Geithner said. About 24 hours later, Summers cited the administration's "remarkable accomplishments" in pulling the financial system back from the brink of the abyss.

But even as they patted themselves on the back (and Ben Bernanke in absentia), Geithner and Summers both warned against complacency - and pushed back against those calling for a removal of stimulus.

"We will try to avoid the classic mistake" of "withdraw[ing] support too soon," Geithner said. "It'll be a while before we face a risk of inflation accelerating," given the slack in the economy and rising unemployment.

"It's "crucial to avoid premature withdrawal of expansionary measures," Summers concurred.

Given the remarkably similar comments here from Christina Romer, chair of the President's Council of Economic Advisers, the message from White House's top economic braintrust is clear: Despite howls of protests from inflation hawks and Austrian economists, the administration is not planning to head for the "exits" anytime soon.

One administration official who isn't touting the party line is TARP monitor Elizabeth Warren, who took umbrage with Geithner's "remarkably effective" claim in our exclusive interview. Click here and here for more clips with Warren, and stay tuned for additional interviews from the conference with Robert Shiller, Niall Ferguson and The Economist's economics editor, Zanny Minton Beddoes.